Picking a Winner – Dolphins in an Upset

Going on the road with a new coach, virtually new team with a new mindset, there’s no pressure but this is the NFL. The Miami Dolphins are one of 32 professional franchises and losing isn’t part of the business plan. Owner Stephen Ross has plenty of dead cap money from previous bad decisions and personnel gambles that didn’t pay off. With a somewhat clean slate, the Dolphins travel to Las Vegas where the national odds aren’t totally in their favor but also not far from it as well. Let’s look at a few reasons why the aqua and orange return flight will be a happy one replete with the team’s first win of the 2026 season.

The odds.

The national pundits all say the Raiders in a low scoring game. The home team has to cover but with an aging quarterback coming off of an Achilles injury and a patched up line that gave up the most sacks in the league, look for the Big Nickel defense of Miami to pressure early and often and hurry the aging QB and put him on his back. That low score may very well be in the Dolphins’ favor, especially if their running game with De’Von Achane gets in gear and Miami’s newest running quarterback, Malik Willis finds his wheels and confidence early.

The referees.

Clete Blakeman’s crew has officiated plenty of Raider games and the Las Vegas team has gone 5-10. Blakeman’s crews have statistically thrown a high number of penalty flags against the Raiders in the past decade. Blakeman’s crews have worked less often for the Dolphins. Perhaps the silver and black will see the disadvantage from the crew giving the Dolphins an edge.

Injuries

The Raiders won’t have Pro Bowl tight end Brock Bowers who is out with a meniscus tear so the Raiders quarterback will be down a huge weapon in his arsenal. The Dolphins are coming in relatively injury free.

Outcome

Look for the Dolphins to grind it out on offense and find as many ways as possible to put pressure on the Raider offense and create turnovers and send Jeff Hafley home a winner.