D'Andre Swift celebrates with Bears wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus (14) and center Drew Dalman (52) after a TD Sunday. Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Playoff projections unfriendly toward Bears even after big win

Originally posted on Chicago Bears on SI
By Gene Chamberlain | Last updated Dec 15, 2025 6:40 PM ET

It beats being a longshot for the playoffs like the Detroit Lions but the Bears are still not viewed as a sure thing to be in the postseason by several different postseason projections.

NFL.com has the Bears at a 74% chance for the playoffs after Sunday's rout of Cleveland and losses by both Green Bay and Detroit. This might sound good, but the Packers are given a 14% better chance at the playoffs despite trailing by half a game in the standings with Saturday's rematch looming at Soldier Field

In fact, NFL.com likes the Bears' chances for the playoffs less than Tampa Bay's chance, and the Buccaneers are only tied for first in their division with Carolina and don't have a realistic chance at the wild card should the Panthers surge into the postseason. Tampa Bay is given a 77% chance playoffs by NFL.com.

The Bears are given an 85% chance at the playoffs by The Athletic, and 53% shot at winning the NFC North. It sounds good but the Packers have a better playoff chance at 91%. Their division title chances are viewed as lower than the Bears' chances at 43%.

The Chicago Bears BURIED the Cleveland Browns#PMSLive pic.twitter.com/Mk7HUlt6US
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) December 15, 2025

The website Playoffstatus.com views the Bears favorably with an 89% chance at the playoffs and a 50% chance to reach the divisional round. They give the Bears a 26% shot at reaching the NFC title game, below only the Rams (57%) and Seahawks (33%). At least they're ahead of Green Bay (21%) and San Francisco (21%) in this regard.

The oddsmakers are saying the same thing as the playoff projectors. It's going to take a win by the Bears Saturday over Green Bay to convince anyone they're capable of something big.

What felt like the dream season here in Green Bay, quickly turned into a nightmare during the 3rd quarter of yesterday's game in Denver.

My thoughts, and reaction from Matt LaFleur and Rashan Gary, on how the Packers move forward without Micah Parsons: pic.twitter.com/ntAAiMZoKC
— Carson Fowler (@CarsonFowlerTV) December 15, 2025

While their playoff odds are better now at -350 according to Draftkings, than Detroit, at -180, the Packers are considered to have a better shot at -800.

However, the Bears (+1800) are favored over the Packers (+13000) for home-field advantage in the playoffs as a No. 1 seed.

The Bears are sitting at -135 to reach 11 1/2 wins. It's a number showing how far they've come. They could be found at almost the same number to reach 8 1/2 wins as training camp was opening.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

NFC North Playoff Chances (per Kalshi)

89% — Packers
81% — Bears
33% — Lions

Can all three make it? pic.twitter.com/xgqyFRrROL
— Kalshi Sports (@KalshiSports) December 15, 2025