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Sam Darnold 2025 NFL Redraft Outlook: Seattle’s Gamble Could Be a Value in Drafts
- Jun 11, 2025; Renton, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes the ball during mini-camp at Virginia Mason Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

Sam Darnold just signed a three-year, $110 million deal with the Seattle Seahawks, and honestly? I’m not sure whether to laugh or cry for the guy. After watching him transform from a Jets punching bag to a Minnesota miracle worker, now he’s heading to Seattle with more pressure to try to recreate his 2024 season with the Vikings.

Sam Darnold 2024 Stats and Fantasy Production

Here’s the thing that gets me: Darnold had the season of his life in Minnesota, throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns with just 12 picks. The dude finished as the QB8 in fantasy, led the Vikings to a 14-3 record, and suddenly everyone’s acting like he’s the second coming of Brett Favre. But let’s pump the brakes for a hot second.

Was Sam Darnold actually that good, or was he just another quarterback who benefited from Kevin O’Connell’s offensive wizardry? I mean, this is the same coach who made Geno Smith look competent before he got to Seattle. The Vikings had Justin Jefferson running routes like he was playing a different sport, a solid offensive line that gave Darnold time to actually think, and a system designed to make quarterbacks look better than they are.

Now Darnold is walking into Seattle thinking he’s going to replicate that magic, and I’ve got news for him: the Pacific Northwest isn’t Minneapolis, and the Seahawks aren’t the Vikings.

The Seahawks went 10-7 last season and missed the playoffs, which should tell you everything you need to know about their current state. They just traded away DK Metcalf, you know, that guy who could turn a terrible throw into a spectacular catch, and replaced him with Cooper Kupp, who’s about as reliable as my car in a Seattle rainstorm these days.

Sure, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is talented, but he’s not Justin Jefferson. The offensive line? Let’s just say Sam Darnold better start practicing his scrambling because he’s going to see more pressure than a campaign manager in October. The Seahawks have 10 picks in the upcoming draft, including five in the first 100 selections, but that’s just fancy talk for “we have a lot of holes to fill.”

Here’s where it gets really interesting: fantasy analysts are actually buying into this. One expert from Fantasy Alarm thinks this is going to work because of the new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak’s scheme. Really? We’re banking on Kubiak being the next offensive genius? The guy’s been bouncing around the league like a pinball, and now he’s supposed to be Sam Darnold’s savior?

Sam Darnold 2025 Fantasy Outlook

Jan 13, 2025; Glendale, AZ, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) reacts as he walks off the field after losing to the Los Angeles Rams during an NFC wild card game at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

From a fantasy perspective, this move is fascinating for all the wrong reasons. Last year, Darnold finished with 333 fantasy points, which was genuinely impressive. But here’s the brutal truth: he had better weapons in Minnesota, a better offensive line, a better system, and a coach who knew exactly how to use him.

In Seattle, he’s walking into uncertainty. New offense, new teammates, new pressure. The optimists are pointing to Kubiak’s scheme and saying it’s “QB-friendly,” but so was Minnesota’s system, and that was built specifically around the players they had.

The smart money says Darnold takes a step back this season. Maybe not a complete collapse, but enough of a regression to make that $110 million look like a massive overpay. Fantasy owners who draft him expecting 2024 production are setting themselves up for disappointment.

The Seahawks are betting big that last season wasn’t a fluke, that Darnold can carry that success to a new team with new challenges. But history tells us that quarterbacks who have one magical season often struggle to recreate that magic in different circumstances.

This article first appeared on Total Apex Fantasy Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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