Should Colts' Daniel Jones Command Top-Tier QB Contract?

First things first, it needs to be clarified what 'top money' means with the quarterback position. Below are the 10 highest-paid QBs by annual earnings per Spotrac.

• Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) - $60 million
• Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers) - $55 million
• Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) - $55 million
• Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) - $55 million
• Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) - $55 million
• Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) - $53.1 million
• Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) - $53 million
• Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) - $53 million
• Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers - $52.5 million
• Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) - $52 million

While these names all make over $50 million annually, we can justify any annual earnings of $40 million or more as a big-time QB contract. Below are the QBs who make over this metric.

• Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals) - $46.1 million
• Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns) - $46 million
• Kirk Cousins (Atlanta Falcons) - $45 million
• Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) - $45 million
• Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) - $42 million

Jones deserves this because, until he fell to a season-ending Achilles injury, he was a top-five quarterback in the NFL.

Despite only playing 13 games, Jones was cooking and looked the best he has in seven NFL seasons.

Jones finished with 261 completions, a completion percentage of 68.0, 24 total touchdowns (19 passing, five rushing), and a career-best QBR of 63.1.

Jones was one of the top players at his position for a majority of the 2025 campaign. Given how much the Colts want stability at the quarterback position, forecasting $40 million-plus annually isn't a wild thought.

Other teams will have Jones on their radar if they need more from their quarterback position, so the Colts will have some competition.

Don't be shocked if Indianapolis gives Jones something like a three-year, $135 million ($45 million annually) deal to keep him in the Circle City and finally quell their massive QB issues since 2019.

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Why Jones Shouldn't

While Jones did have an excellent 2025 season for Indianapolis, and starting quarterbacks tend to get paid big, multiple factors explain why he doesn't warrant such a deal.

First, this was just the second year that Jones has played good football. Before the 2025 campaign, Jones' 2022 season was the only year in which he could be considered a potential top signal-caller.

That year featured Jones leading the Giants to the playoffs, a Wild Card victory, and an efficient stat line of 317/472 completions for 3,205 passing yards, 708 rushing yards, and 22 all-purpose TDs (15 passing, seven rushing).

This led to Jones earning a four-year, $160 million contract ($92 million guaranteed) from the Giants. After this, Jones completely fell apart and dealt with injuries, forcing him to miss 18 games over the next two years.

Jones did play great, but also stacked more injuries, including the critical Achilles tear that derailed his first year with Indianapolis to add another four games missed to his career.

With these factors in place, Jones doesn't deserve more than $40 million annually. Rather than this type of money, he might warrant contracts like the following quarterbacks.

• Geno Smith (Las Vegas Raiders) - $37.5 million
• Sam Darnold (Seattle Seahawks) - $33.5 million
• Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - $33.3 million

Jones' name and story have been linked to those of Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, so it seems fitting that he could earn something similar to those two.

Jones played great, but it's not enough to give him massive money as a starting quarterback. If he can show consistency with injuries and continue where he left off in 2025, there's always a possibility to extend him with more dinero.

The Prediction

Given the breakdowns above, I don't believe Jones should earn more than $40 million annually.

This prediction is far less about Jones' play on the gridiron and far more about his brutal injury history. While the Colts truly need him back, they can't pony up ridiculous dough with so much risk.

The best fit is similar to what was presented to Darnold and Mayfield, and if Jones outplays that type of contract, there can be an extension and restructuring of other contracts to make room.

Until Jones shows he can get through returning from an Achilles injury and be more than a one-year wonder, a top-tier QB contract shouldn't be gifted unless necessary.

We'll ultimately see what Chris Ballard decides to do, as other potential offers from various teams could ramp up how much Jones will cost Indianapolis.

Anything can happen, but one thing's for certain: Jones is very likely to remain with the Colts as their offensive leader.