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May 9, 2025; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants linebacker Abdul Carter (51) during rookie minicamp at Quest Diagnostics Training Center. John Jones-Imagn Images

SI Makes Bold Prediction Regarding Key Stat for Giants OLB Abdul Carter

Originally posted on New York Giants on SI
By Stephen Lebitsch | Last updated Jun 2, 2025 10:00 AM ET

Heading into his long-awaited rookie campaign with the New York Giants this fall, outside linebacker Abdul Carter isn’t going to need much time or motivation to get involved in the weekly destruction the team hopes to create up front on the defensive side of the ball.

After watching the No. 3 overall pick have one of the most dominating pass-rushing stints in college football in 2024, there are big expectations for what lies ahead for him in the NFL.

The Giants viewed the outside linebacker as a unique threat to add to their unit and expected him to provide many opportunities to tee off on the quarterback.

At the same time, there could be some challenges for the first-year player that tend to arise for some rookies venturing into the pros.

First, Carter is about to face off with a much better offensive lineman than he saw at Penn State, who is much more experienced at stifling an oncoming pass rush.

Going off of that, the Giants will also have a position group that is now loaded with options, including Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, who Carter is slated to compete with for reps in camp, and one of the toughest schedules in the entire league, featuring teams with the best protection around.

Despite all that, Carter has proven himself to be a special player with a tireless motor in live action. So, just how many times could he successfully land contact on the quarterback and snuff out plays in the backfield with a sack?

A new projection by SI.com writer Conor Orr among his list of 100 predictions for the 2025 NFL season offers a total of six sacks for Carter by the time he wraps up his introductory season in the NFL.

“The No. 3 pick will have a promising start to his rookie campaign, although the intensity of the Giants’ schedule will prevent Big Blue from a ton of opportunities to simply tee off on quarterbacks working in obvious throwing downs,” Orr said.

“This is part of a larger NFL trend in general that will see a shift in offensive game planning.”

Orr is certainly not wrong about saying the overall success of defenses in shutting down opposing offenses in the passing game has been declining in recent seasons.

Teams are improving their offensive lines tremendously, and it’s evidenced by the fact that there were only 12 franchises that recorded 40+ sacks this past season compared to 19 in 2023.

Last year, the Giants were among those dozen teams with 45 sacks, and most of them came early in the season when the defensive line was at full strength, albeit some of the opponents they faced weren’t as well suited with their starting protection.

Still, the Giants are going to be a tough opponent for any other team to face because they will have a crew of four very good pass rushers to mix up in different looks.

That is going to be the big task for Shane Bowen to make it all work, but one knows he’s going to ensure his newest toy in Carter is introducing himself early and often.

If Carter can tally six sacks in his first season, that would be pretty impressive and on par with some of the best numbers we’ve seen posted by rookies in recent years. In 2024, only three rookie edge rushers notched at least six sacks, whereas there were quadruple that in the 2023 campaign.

Carter would be amongst the elite young talent in the league if he accomplished that feat, and it can’t be dismissed that he beats it. The first step towards that will be winning his position battle this summer and perhaps earning a more prominent role among his veteran teammates.

Then, it will be seeing what he is made of against better pass protections. Three of the Giants’ first five opponents had offensive lines post pass block win rates in the top 15 last season, and seven teams were among the top 10 with a slew of elite elders on that side of the line of scrimmage.

It is an intense stretch to be welcomed into for Carter. However, if he can show that he can spar with the best and still manage to ink out a half dozen sacks in the process, it’d be hard to label that a failed season for a player who the Giants knew was their best option for future success beyond a new quarterback.

The more important thing is how Carter can attract increased attention and open up extra opportunities for his fellow pass rushers to have their turn at making the drive-stopping plays.

The Giants want their defensive line to be their calling card in 2025, and with Carter joining it, there could be a good feast in the backfield beyond what we saw last season.

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