Six long reception props for NFL Week 6

As we prepare for Week 6 in the NFL, we're mixing up how we present long play props. Below are six bets for Sunday, with some high-level notes on why each has been deemed a target.

Some notes as a key. DADOT = Defensive Average Depth of Target. The higher the number, the farther down the field a team is throwing against them. aDOT is average depth of target, which is the same concept, but for an offensive player.

Peruse the notes that push each pick over the edge and roll with the ones that speak to you.

Mike Evans over 24.5 longest reception (-108 CZR)

Mike Evans is my favorite play of the day against a Steelers secondary getting gashed on the regular.

• Pittsburgh has allowed the most 20+ yard passes this season at 22
• They have allowed the most big plays to wide receivers with 19
• They have seen the sixth-highest yards per pass attempt against them
• Pittsburgh's DADOT is 8.7, ninth-highest in the league
• Evans has a 14.1 aDOT in four games
• He is over this 24.5 number in three straight games, with a long of 41, 30 and 40 yards
• Evans is over this 24.5 line in seven of his last eight games

Justin Jefferson over 26.5 longest reception (-110 DK)

Justin Jefferson is one of the most talented receivers in football and should have chances to break a play against what has been a vulnerable Miami defense.

• Miami has allowed 17 passes of 20+ yards, tied for ninth-most
• The Dolphins have allowed five passes of 40+ yards, second-most in the league
• Miami's seen the second-highest yards per pass attempt against them
• Miami's DADOT of 8.6 is tied for 10th-highest
• Jefferson is over this 26.5 total in three of five this week, including a 30+ yard catch in back-to-back weeks
• He has recorded a reception longer than 27 yards in 15 of his last 22 games

Marquise Brown over 23.5 longest reception (-117 CZR)

The Arizona offense has yet to break a massive play through the air, but this weekend's matchup is inviting for exactly that.

• Seattle has allowed the second-most passes of 20+ yards at 21 total
• Opponents are averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt against the Seahawks defense, the most in the NFL
• Seattle's DADOT of 9.2 is second-highest in the NFL
• Brown has a 20+ yard catch in all five games this year
• He's over this 23.5 total in three of five with his new team
• Fastest guy on the offense

Brandon Aiyuk over 20.5 longest reception (-120 DK)

Each week, Atlanta is watching wide receivers break off long gains against their defense, and this week offers Brandon Aiyuk a chance to get in on the fun.

• Atlanta has allowed 19 completions of 20+ yards, tied for third-most
• The Falcons have allowed wide receivers to break off 15 plays of 20+ yards, third-most
• Aiyuk's aDOT of 11.0 is tops among starting 49ers WRs
• He is over this 20.5 number in three of five this year and in 15 of his last 19 games
• Had a 36-yard catch against Atlanta last season

Tyler Lockett over 24.5 longest reception (-110 MGM)

We have two viable wide receivers to target on the Seahawks, but we're opting for the one who has had Arizona's number.

• The Cardinals have allowed 17 passes of 20+ yards, tied for ninth-highest
• Arizona has seen the ninth-highest yards per pass attempt this season
• Lockett has a catch of 34 yards or longer in two straight weeks and is over this 24.5 number in three of five this year
• In two games against Arizona last season, Lockett had a long of 48 and 43 yards

Donovan Peoples-Jones over 17.5 longest reception (-115 DK)

This feels like a low line for a vertical threat on the Cleveland Browns offense.

• New England has seen 18 passes of 20+ yards against them, tied for sixth-most
• New England's DADOT at 8.6 is tenth-highest in the league
• 14 of the Patriots' 20+ yard passes allowed have been to wide receivers, which is tied for fourth-most
• After a slow start to the year, Peoples-Jones is over this 17.5 total in two straight games
• Has a long catch over 17.5 yards in nine of his last 15 games