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Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17). Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday Six-Pack: NFL Week 4 betting guide

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 9/29/23

This has been a great way to wrap a solid few days of NFL research and put a bow on some of our favorite reads of the week. Last week, we went 3-3 on these circled spots, coming out a tad ahead thanks to some plus-money wagers. That brings our record to 11-7 on these plays through three weeks.

We're on to Week 4, and we've got a six-pack of plays that you should crack into now before prices and lines move too much.

Look to London: Bijan Robinson over 25.5 receiving yards (-110 BetMGM)

It would be borderline irresponsible to not have a bet going bright and early for this London game between Atlanta and Jacksonville. Ah, I can picture it now, coffee in hand, forcing my visiting sister-in-law awake off our pullout couch bed so I can get the game going on the TV. An ideal Sunday morning.

Anyway, my preferred angle in this one is star rookie Bijan Robinson to get involved through the air. Jacksonville is allowing the seventh-most receptions to running backs this season, and all three RBs to see the Jags has gone over their receiving yardage totals.

Robinson has eclipsed this 25.5 number in all three games to start his career, averaging 34 yards/game. Hop on and start your Sunday right.

Cast off, Sack on: Haason Reddick over 0.75 sacks (-110 DraftKings)

Haason Reddick was second in the NFL last season in sacks, but he's been quiet to start 2023. A big reason why may have been thumb surgery this offseason which has forced the Philadelphia edge rusher to be in a cast to begin his year.

Well, the cast is off, and Reddick is on the record as saying he's ready to play free this weekend. He gets a great opponent to do just that, as Washington has allowed a league-high 19 sacks through three games.

It's time for Reddick to get off the schneid.

Slop-fest could be fun: Over 46.5 points in Denver-Chicago (-110 DraftKings)

Denver and Chicago are two of the worst defenses in football. As I went through my checks this week, both came up in a variety of ways. For Chicago, their secondary is the big issue, allowing explosive plays left and right.

Denver just has issues everywhere. Both also allow quite a few touchdowns.

Rather than pinpoint which player gets in on the fun, why don't we just bank on two struggling offenses figuring it out against one of the softer opponents they'll see?

Just in case it's never the same: Puka Nacua over 71.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)

Cooper Kupp is eligible to come off IR following this weekend, and while there's no sure thing he does nor is it a guarantee he's fully effective, this could still be the last hurrah we have for Puka Nacua to be the target monster on Los Angeles.

In a farewell part, we grab his receiving over against a very weak Indianapolis secondary. The Colts have allowed the ninth-highest yards per pass attempt, making them an ideal target for passing props.

Nacua is averaging 112.7 receiving yards per game this season and has hit this 71.5 number in all three tries. Nacua has 42 targets on the year and Indy has seen some big games from receivers, namely Nico Collins going for 146 in Week 2 and Calvin Ridley piling up 101 in Week 1.

Slot spot: Rondale Moore over 2.5 receptions (-130 FanDuel)

For all that San Francisco does well, they've been vulnerable to receptions from slot receivers. Parris Campbell and Wan'Dale Robinson both operated out of the slot in Week 3 and combined for 10 receptions. Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua split slot duties in Week 2 and brought in 22 receptions between the pair. Allen Robinson was the slot receiver opposite San Fran to start the year and he finished with five catches.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

Convinced? Rondale Moore is the next such slot WR to see this defense, and he's gone over this 2.5 line in two of three tries this year. As 14-point underdogs, it would be a surprise if Arizona isn't forced to go to the air in this one. Moore should see plenty of looks.

Too many points: New England +6 (-108 DraftKings)

We liked the Patriots at +6.5, and then word got out that Dallas would be without their star tackle Tyron Smith. That seems like a bigger issue than people are making it out to be.

New England has a very formidable front led by Matthew Judon, and the Cowboys offensive line depth is a major concern. The Patriots won last week and have a pair of close losses to two 3-0 teams in Philadelphia and Miami.

The Cowboys just lost by 12 to the lowly Cardinals, why are they so favored here? Ride the Pats.

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