The Dolphins Are a Team of ‘Ifs’

When discussing the upcoming Dolphins season, you’ll inevitably hear negativity or cautious optimism prefaced by the word “if.” Like it or not, that’s how general manager Chris Grier has built this team: “The Dolphins could be good if…” Here, I’ll be analyzing all of the primary ifs, listed in terms of most important to the team to least important.

• If Tua stays healthy

It’s become boring, which is why I’ll keep it brief, but practically every Dolphins conversation since the concussion issues surfaced in 2022 for Tua Tagovailoa includes the aforementioned phrase. And despite being cliché by now, it still rings true. In the Mike McDaniel era of Dolphins football, the team has a 59% win rate when Tua starts the game; they’re at 27% when Tua isn’t the starter. That’s the difference between being a 10-win team and a five-win team. I’m not making this a pro-Tua case, as Miami’s backups have been among the worst in the NFL, but the fact remains the Dolphins are a winning football team with Tua Tagovailoa under center and among the worst in the NFL when he’s not. Can Zach Wilson change that? I have my doubts.

• If Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips can regain their old form

The last time we saw Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips together on the field was Nov. 24, 2023, when the Dolphins played against the Jets on Black Friday, and Phillips unfortunately went down with a torn Achilles. Over a month later, Bradley Chubb tore his ACL, meniscus, and patellar tendon playing meaningless snaps in a blowout loss against the Ravens. Phillips would return for the 2024 season before suffering an ACL injury that knocked him out for the rest of the season in Week 4. Chubb failed to return to the field last year despite being designated to return to practice in the second half of the season.

They played a total of eight games together in 2023, where they combined for 11.5 sacks. Phillips was on pace for his first double-digit sack season of his career, while Chubb was on pace for his most productive season of his career.

Now, they’re a mystery, and this is where the “if” comes into play. Both players are still under 30, and they’re both physical specimens. In theory, they could return to being one of the most dominant pass-rush duos in the NFL, and that’s without including the play of second-year player Chop Robinson, who really came on strong in their absence last year. Miami’s secondary issues are well-noted, but having the pair of edge rushers healthy and playing like themselves could help out Miami’s defense in a very meaningful way.

• If Patrick Paul can be a viable starting left tackle

Perhaps the biggest unknown on the roster is second-year left tackle Patrick Paul, who will now assume the starting role following Terron Armstead’s retirement. Paul saw some game action last year at both left tackle and right tackle, with injuries to Kendall Lamm and Terron Armstead forcing him into the starting lineup. Now, he’s expected to play the most important position in a group that struggled mightily last year.

The last time Miami entered the year with an inexperienced left tackle starting was Liam Eichenberg in 2021, and I think every Miami fan knows how that turned out. Before that, it was Austin Jackson in 2020 who struggled to the degree that he was forced to move to left guard before eventually finding his place as a right tackle. Unlike those two, Paul had the benefit of being mentored by an All-Pro player in Terron Armstead, while the other two were forced into the fire by Day 1.

In 2024, the Dolphins’ offensive line struggled mightily, particularly in the run game, and it was a big reason why the offense lacked the explosiveness it had in 2023 and 2022 when Tua was out there. Now, Miami’s offensive line is full of mysteries. The right tackle, Austin Jackson, is a high-end run blocker who can move laterally like very few tackles, but he has missed the majority of two of the past three seasons and is also a sub-par pass-blocker.

Meanwhile, one of their guards is a second-round rookie that the Dolphins paid a price for in terms of draft compensation, and the other is a free agent who played the best football of his career in 2024 before going down with an Achilles injury. The upside is there for the unit, but the biggest gap between floor and ceiling is probably with the inexperienced Paul. If Paul can be an average left tackle in his first year as a starter, that would be a huge addition for the Dolphins this year and going forward, as they desperately need good players on rookie contracts.

• If Darren Waller can return to 2023 form

Now, I know Darren Waller’s prime was in 2020 when he went for nearly 1,200 yards and led all tight ends in the NFL in receiving yards, but that version of Waller is long gone. However, the last time we saw Waller on the field was with the Giants in 2023, and despite no longer being that Pro Bowl version we’d previously seen, he was still a solid option in the passing game. He was limited with hamstring injuries all year, but still managed to rack up 552 yards in 12 games, which is a 782-yard pace that would have led the Giants in receiving yards that year. He was also a victim of subpar quarterback play from Daniel Jones, who struggled to get anything going through the air that season.

Waller is now entering a position he hasn’t been in for a while, as he won’t be one of the top two receiving threats on the team. His physical talents have never been in doubt, but the odds of him bouncing back into the player he used to be after sitting out the previous year are low.

Even the Dolphins aren’t sure what they’re getting out of Waller, which is probably why they brought in free-agent tight end Noah Fant for a visit. Having the 2023 version of Waller would signify replicating Jonnu Smith‘s 2024 production at a fraction of the cost, while providing the Dolphins a big sized mismatch they haven’t had since the days of Devante Parker and Preston Williams.

• If the secondary can be okay

Last year, the Dolphins finished ninth in points per game allowed and were the only team in the top 12 in that category that missed out on the playoffs. I’ll be the first to say that despite those numbers, I didn’t love the Dolphins’ defense last year, as I felt they benefited from playing a schedule that featured mediocre quarterbacks (Levis, Richardson, Minshew, Brissett, and Thompson-Robinson). However, I was impressed with first-year defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver down the stretch, as he managed to create pressure with well-timed blitzes from the secondary and, aside from two games against Aaron Rodgers, typically had success.

Now, the Dolphins have lost Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, Kendall Fuller, Jevon Holland, and Jordan Poyer from last year’s unit. Make no mistake, those are big departures. Even someone like Poyer, who disappointed, was a veteran who knew what to do in the scheme. Miami hopes to replace its production with the likes of Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Kenneth Grant, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jack Jones, and Mike Hilton. At first look, that’s probably an upgrade in terms of pass-rushing talent, even if Campbell was a very good player last year, but the downgrade in the secondary is noticeable. Miami is relying on the No. 2 “if” on this list to offset any declines shown by its lackluster secondary talent.

While it’s certainly possible, it is a big risk that they’re taking, and one way to minimize that is if those secondary names can actually provide more value than expected.

The newly signed Jones is among the most physically talented cornerbacks in the NFL, but he’s a risk-taker with a tendency to get beaten as he searches for big plays of his own, and maturity issues have haunted him ever since the draft process. Mike Hilton’s coverage skills have declined, but he’s a very capable run defender and can replace Ramsey’s blitzing production that proved to be a weapon for Weaver in 2024.

Fitzpatrick is still a productive player, but if he can return to his previous form in a scheme better suited for his needs, he could be a big help in manning this secondary. This “if” is last on this list, as I’m not expecting or asking for anything particularly positive out of this unit. I’m simply stating that if they can avoid being one of the 10 worst secondaries in the NFL, they could remain an overall top-10 defense as they were last year.