The Lions’ 2026 Schedule Is Harder Than It Looks

While the strength of schedule varies depending on the parameters used to calculate it, few place Detroit outside the five easiest schedules in the league, and almost none place the Lions outside the top 10.

Currently, DraftKings has the Lions favored in 14 of their 17 games.

The three exceptions are road games against NFC North rivals Chicago (-1.5) and Green Bay (-2.5), along with a Week 2 matchup against the Bills (-3). On paper, that makes Detroit’s path look manageable. In reality, the schedule is harder than it appears.

The New and Improved NFC North

In years past, the NFC North has been, well, below par. However, the past few seasons have told a different story, and the division has developed into one of the toughest in the league. Last season notably marked the first time that all four teams finished with records above .500. 

The NFC North was the only division in the league to accomplish the feat and the first division to do so since 2023. The signs were already there in 2024, when three of the division’s four teams won 11 or more games — the Lions at 15-2, the Vikings at 14-3 and the Packers at 11-6. 

It marked the first time since 2020 that a division had three teams reach 11 wins. Simply put, there are no easy wins in the NFC North anymore. The betting markets tell the same story.

 According to BetMGM, Detroit carries the division’s highest win total at 10.5. The Bears and Packers both sit at 9.5 while the Vikings have a projected win total of 8.5. That makes the NFC North the only division in the league with all four teams carrying a preseason win total of 8.5 or higher.

The North Isn’t Slowing Down

In Chicago, Ben Johnson enters Year 2 after guiding the Bears to an 11-6 finish and a division title in his debut season.  Caleb Williams appears ready to take another step forward. Johnson even said Williams has “taken complete control” of the offense this preseason.

Green Bay returns a veteran core led by Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs, with Matt LaFleur entering his eighth season at the helm. LaFleur has led Green Bay to the playoffs in six of his first seven seasons, continuing to search for the Packers’ first NFC title game since 2020. One of Green Bay’s biggest difference-makers, however, won’t come into play until later in the season. 

Micah Parsons, who totaled 12.5 sacks and 19 solo tackles in 2025, is working his way back from a torn ACL. Parsons revealed his December surgery also included a procedure on his meniscus and said he won’t be cleared to practice until the nine-month mark, putting his earliest possible return to the field around mid-October. 

While the impact won’t be immediate, his mid-season return could give Green Bay a much-needed boost.

Even Minnesota, projected to finish at the bottom of the division, has reason for optimism after adding former No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray this offseason. Murray has since won the starting job over J.J. McCarthy, allowing him a chance to revive his career under Kevin O’Connell and alongside one of the league’s best receivers, Justin Jefferson. 

Put it all together, and even the team projected to finish last in the division has reason to be optimistic entering 2026.

For Detroit, six games against a division this deep make its “easy” strength-of-schedule ranking a little more complicated.

A Brutal Midseason Stretch

The most challenging stretch of Detroit’s schedule comes in Weeks 10- 12, when they will play three games in just 12 days.

The stretch begins overseas on Nov. 15 against the Patriots in Germany. The Lions’ matchup against the Super Bowl LX runners-up will mark Detroit’s first international regular-season game since 2015. Detroit will then return home to host the Buccaneers a week later on Nov. 22, and there won’t be much time to recover after that.

Only four days later, the Lions will turn around and host the Bears on Thanksgiving.

Regardless of how favorable Detroit’s schedule may look on paper, this stretch will be anything but easy. Not to mention, with the Lions’ bye coming as early as Week 6, Detroit will have to navigate the entire second half of its schedule with little room to breathe.

The Favorable Side of the Schedule

If there are seven games responsible for the Lions’ favorable strength-of-schedule ranking, they are not difficult to find.

Detroit will face the Saints, Jets, Panthers, Cardinals, Dolphins, Titans and Giants — seven teams that enter 2026 with some of the lowest expectations in the NFL.

The easiest stretch of Detroit’s schedule comes early. 

The Lions open against the Saints before facing a much tougher test against the Bills in Week 2.  From there, Detroit will face the Jets, Panthers and Cardinals in consecutive weeks before entering its Week 6 bye.

The betting market reflects that gap. Detroit is favored in all seven matchups, with an average spread of about 6.2 points. While these matchups may look easier on paper, that only increases the pressure on Detroit to take advantage of them.

If the Lions want to contend for the divisional title, these are the games they cannot afford to give away, as one game can be the difference between first and last. Look no further than last season. Detroit entered Week 18 knowing it could beat Chicago and still finish last in the division, depending on the outcome of the Minnesota-Green Bay game.

The Lions did their part, beating the Bears to finish 9-8, but Minnesota also won. Despite finishing above .500, Detroit still landed at the bottom of the division.

For Detroit, taking advantage of the favorable matchups may be just as important as surviving the difficult ones.

The Bottom Line

So, are the preseason expectations for the Lions to return to the playoffs reasonable?

Absolutely.

While their path is easier than it has been in recent years, easier does not mean easy.

Detroit has favorable matchups and plenty of opportunities to take advantage of its schedule. However, those are mixed with six NFC North battles, a trip to Buffalo, an international game in Germany and stretches that could test this team in ways a strength-of-schedule ranking cannot show.

The expectations are high, and rightfully so, but Detroit’s favorable path back to the postseason may be more challenging than it looks.