The Texans are back to .500... so, now what?

Back in late September, after the Houston Texans dropped to 0-3 to start the 2025 NFL season, I broke down the remainder of Houston's schedule and outlined a path for the two-time defending AFC South champs to return to the Playoffs, despite just 2.4% of teams who start the season 0-3 overcoming that slow start to play into the month of January.

Game by game I went through each of the remaining 14 matchups, using both Mike Clay's preseason win probabilities and my own gut to determine whether it was realistic to believe that the Texans could actually dig themselves out of this hole. The conclusion that I arrived at was, Yes, it's possible, but there's very little room for error. In the end, it felt like 9-8 was possible, and then it would be up to the rest of the AFC to determine whether 9 wins were enough for a Wild Card berth.

The issue here for the Texans is that presently they are 5-5, having just survived an ugly scare in Nashville against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon. In my late-September exercise, I had the Texans pegged for 6-4 at this juncture of the season, so you could argue that right now the Texans are actually behind the curve.

However, the state of the rest of the AFC lends itself quite well to Houston's hopes of a postseason return. Presently, Houston is the 8-seed in the AFC, deadlocked with the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens on the outside looking in at the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4), Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4), and Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) as teams who are just one game up in the loss column.

So for a second, I want you to try to forget about the improbability of the Texans making the Playoffs after an 0-3 start. For the sake of today's exercise, it doesn't matter when Houston earned their 5 wins, or got dealt their 5 losses. They are 5-5 and one game out of the Playoffs, so now it's time to take what we've learned from the first 11 weeks of the NFL season and run our late-September exercise back and determine what Houston's end of season record may look like once again.

Breaking down the Houston Texans remaining schedule

Just as I did last time, let's start by taking a look at Mike Clay's preseason win probabilities for each of the remaining 7 games on Houston's schedule.

Week 12 - vs. Buffalo Bills

Last time around I noted that when the Texans and Bills played last year, Houston's D forced eventual 2024 MVP Josh Allen into what may have been the worst game of his NFL career. The Texans recipe for success against Buffalo hasn't changed this time around. Allen is coming off of a 6 total touchdown performance against Tampa Bay, but the Bucs don't have the horses to get after the league's best quarterback like the Texans defense does.

In the end, this comes down to not only how great Houston's defense is, but also how capable the Texans offense is against Buffalo's defense, because I still believe you need to put at least 21 points on the board to beat the Bills. I know Davis Mills is 2-0 in relief of CJ Stroud, but with Stroud's status for this short week matchup with Buffalo still up in the air, I just can't see Mills getting to 3-0 this year.

Projected Record: 5-6

Week 13 - at Indianapolis Colts

Houston boasts one of the best run defenses in the league, holding opponents to the 3rd-fewest yards and 4th-fewest yards per carry this season. Maintaining that caliber of play against Jonathan Taylor, who really should be right at the top of the MVP race this year -- is necessary in order to beat Indianapolis.

If the Texans can do it -- and that's a big if considering how unbelievable JT has been this year -- then it comes down to Daniel Jones, and I'm still convinced he's going to turn into a pumpkin at some point this season. He's had a couple of shaky performances of late, and he hasn't faced a defense as good as Houston's yet. Give me the Texans with an extra few days of rest in an upset to make things awfully interesting in the South.

Projected Record: 6-6

Week 14 - at Kansas City Chiefs

Yes Houston went punch for punch with KC last year in the divisional round, but a desperate Chiefs team trying to stay in the AFC Playoff race is not an opponent I'd be eager to face early in the month of December. As noted prior, Patrick Mahomes is 26-6 in his career during the holiday season.

Projected Record: 6-7

Week 15 - vs. Arizona Cardinals / Week 16 - vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Thus far this season, Houston's five losses have come to three division leaders -- Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos -- and two teams currently holding down Wild Card spots -- Jacksonville Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks. Even if it's ugly, which as I said before, it was against the Titans in Week 11, Houston hasn't lost to a below .500 team yet this year, and I think that trend will continue coming out of back to back home games against the Cardinals and Raiders.

Projected Record: 8-7

Week 17 - at Los Angeles Chargers

After the Chargers got socked in the mouth by the Jaguars this past weekend, I don't know what to think about Jim Harbaugh's squad. Jacksonville did not look to me like a team that was ready to beat anybody by 29 points, and that's exactly what they did to Los Angeles yesterday. Maybe the injuries are adding up and finally taking a toll on the Bolts, but suddenly, this game doesn't seem like as daunting of a challenge.

Projected Record: 9-7

Week 18 - vs. Indianapolis Colts

As we arrive at the final game of the season, I do feel like I was a little generous giving Houston a win in Indy back in Week 13, but even though I'm more than capable of going back in and re-writing that section, I'm choosing to believe that everything I've written already has been established as fact, so congratulations, I guess?

It's possible we arrive at this game and Indy has nothing to play for. It's also possible that Daniel Jones' pending transformation from elite QB to pumpkin could derail this entire Colts season, leaving Indianapolis with a whole lot to play for in Week 18. I'll remain an optimist and believe that the Texans could end up rolling into the postseason with a 10-7 record and some semblance of momentum, and that's dangerous.

Projected Record: 10-7