The Top 105 NFL Free Agent Contract Projections for the 2024 Offseason

6) DT Justin Madubuike

Franchise Tag Likelihood: High
Projected Contract: 4 yrs, $97M, $24.25M APY, $62.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $13M

The skinny: There is perhaps no player entering free agency who has earned more money than Madabuike. A former third-round pick, his play through the first three years of his career was that of a solid and productive lineman. Then in 2023 Madubuike went off, doubling his previous career high in pressures (64) while recording five more sacks than his previous career total (13).

Working under new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald’s sim-heavy scheme, Madubuike saw more one-on-ones in 2023 and took full advantage of the opportunity, recording the third-most pressures in true pass sets among all interior defenders in the NFL and he was one of only 12 iDL’s to record a pass rush win rate of 14% or better.

His elevation into the tier of elite pass rusher along with a Pro Bowl nod and second- team All-Pro will ensure Madubuike signs one of the most lucrative deals in this year’s free agency, regardless of position.

7) WR Tee Higgins

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 yrs $70.5M, $23.5M APY, $45M Fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $7.5M

The skinny: Higgins has been an alpha receiver buried behind another alpha receiver as a part of one of the best and deepest receiver rooms in the NFL. As the Robin to Ja’Marr Chase’s Batman, Higgins has still shown an ability to be a primary “X” receiver at times over the course of his first four years in the league. Over the course of 2021-2022 Higgins notched 261 targets, 179 catches, 2,577 yards and 16 touchdowns while averaging just under 2.00 yards per route run. At 6’4 and 219 lbs. Higgins has prototypical size to complement good speed and can line up both inside and outside.

Outside of Evans, Higgins will be the most sought after receiving option on the market for wide receiver-needy teams. And with the recent explosion in the valuation of the receiver market he will be able to lock in a contract well ahead of other recent “Robins” like Chris Godwin and Mike Williams.

8) DL Christian Wilkins

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low.
Projected Contract: 4 yrs, $92M, $23M APY, $50M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $6.2M

The skinny: Since being drafted in the first round by Miami in 2019, Wilkins has started his entire career and only missed two games. He’s a high-motor player that is extremely disruptive in run defense, who needed to show a little more pass-rush upside in his contract year to really cash in. Wilkins responded by doubling his previous season-high 4.5 sacks, tallying eight sacks and 52 pressures in 2023.

Wilkins is slightly older than his counterparts that signed deals last offseason, as Quinnen Williams, Jeffery Simmons, Daron Payne, and Dexter Lawrence all signed extensions at age 26. At 28-years-old, Wilkins finds himself placed between these younger players and Javon Hargrave, who signed a four year, $81,000,000 deal with the 49ers at age 30.

Click here for the full Christian Wilkins breakdown

9) EDGE Danielle Hunter

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $67.5M, $22.5M APY, $40M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $9M

The skinny: Hunter is putting up his second consecutive season of healthy production following a 2021 season that was cut short due to a torn pectoral muscle. And at 29-years-ol,d he is showing no signs of slowing down. He set a career-high in sacks with 16.5 and his second-highest mark in quarterback pressures. Hunter is a legitimate alpha rusher off the edge who should be good for another few seasons of high-level play, barring injury.

With a pressure rate of just under 13% of his pass rush snaps Hunter consistently makes quarterbacks uncomfortable while also playing the run at a high-level. He is a force multiplier for any defense that is looking to upgrade their pass rush.

Click here for the full Danielle Hunter breakdown

10) EDGE Brian Burns

Franchise Tag Likelihood: High
Projected Contract: 4 yrs $90M, $22.5M APY, $60M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $7.5M

The skinny: Burns has never broken through the ceiling to really establish himself as a premier pass rusher in the NFL. This is in part due to him only having one season with 10+ sacks (a 12.5 sack campaign in 2022). It’s also because he has never cracked 70 pressures in a season. His pressure rate has been more in-line with Bradley Chubb and Trey Hendrickson prior to their long-term deals as well.

Still Carolina has shown they value Burns more in-line with players like Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt as they reportedly turned down two first round picks from the Rams at the trade deadline in 2022. That valuation will aid Burns in negotiations with Carolina as they will want to ensure the recoup value for their decision to turn down such a lucrative package to keep their star pass rusher around.

Those negotiations will likely be deferred for at least one year as the Panthers are sure to tag Burns to guarantee he will be sticking around for 2024 while they work towards a long-term deal. That deal will likely have an APY that aligns with 9-9.5% of the signing team’s salary cap at the time of signing.

11) WR Michael Pittman Jr.

Franchise Tag Likelihood: High
Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $66M, $22M APY, $37M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $6.5M

The skinny: Pittman has been the engine that has kept the Colts’ passing game running through seven starting quarterbacks over four years. In 2023 he took his game to another level hitting career highs in targets (150), receptions (109), yards (1,152) and yards per route run (2.04).

Since 2021, there have been 11 receivers who at this point have veteran deals who logged at least 150 targets in a season. Nine of those receivers have APY’s of $20 million or more. Pittman isn’t as dynamic as that group, but he is as reliable as they come with a career catch rate of over 71%. The missing link for him is just a lack of scoring with just 15 touchdowns in four years.

12) S Antoine Winfield Jr.

Franchise Tag Likelihood: High
Projected Contract: 3 yrs $61.5M, $20.5M APY, $40M fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $9M

The skinny: Winfield's impact on the field can hold up against any contemporary in any facet of safety play. He has consistently graded out as a plus run defender and showed himself to be more than capable as a slot corner, where he played extensively in 2022. Winfield is even a phenomenal pass rusher generating 33 pressures and 11 sacks in just 145 pass rush opportunities in his career. But it's as a top-down defender working from single-high alignments that he sets himself apart from everyone not named Jessie Bates.

Through his first four seasons WInfield has registered 311 tackles 21 passes defensed eight forced fumbles and four interceptions. The forced fumbles plus interceptions total (12) is higher than Derwin James (8) and Jamal Adams (7) while trailing Jessie Bates III (14) and Minkah Fitzpatrick (17) through their first four years. Winfield's contract will be depressed due to his draft status (he was taken in the second round).

Click here for the full Antoine Winfield Jr. breakdown

13) WR Calvin Ridley

Franchise Tag Likelihood: High
Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $60M, $20M APY, $27.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $7M

The skinny: In his last two full seasons, Ridley has amassed 269 targets, 166 catches, 2,490 yards and 17 touchdowns. Those totals would compare favorably with the two years preceding Terry McLaurin’s long-term extension with Washington following the 2021 season. McLaurin totaled 261 targets, 170 catches, 2,246 yards and nine touchdowns.

But there are some key differences between the two receivers that will most likely keep Ridley from hitting the $70 million total that McLaurin secured two years ago. There is the gambling suspension that kept Ridley out of football for the entirety of the 2022 NFL season. Whatever your thoughts on NFL players gambling and the league’s rules surrounding it, that suspension will have a downward push on his contract’s value.

The franchise tag looks to be beneficial for both Ridley and the Jaguars this season as it gives both parties one more year to evaluate his potential.

Click here for the full Calvin Ridley breakdown

14) CB Jaylon Johnson

Franchise Tag Likelihood: High
Projected Contract: 4 yrs $80M, $20M APY, $38M fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $11M

The skinny: Johnson has been on a steady upward trajectory since entering the NFL in the second round of the 2020 draft. And he is having quite the platform year, allowing just 0.36 yards per coverage snap. he has ascended to one of the best lockdown corners in the NFL while working in the same division as Justin Jefferson. Johnson’s four interceptions in 2023 and 43 passes defensed in the last three years show he has ball skills to go with his overall coverage skills that dissuade quarterbacks from even wanting to look his way. He compliments all of this with adequate run defense, although if there is one area of his game that lacks it is his tackling where he has a career missed tackle rate of 16.6% per Pro Football Focus.

Click here for the full Jaylon Johnson breakdown

15) LB Patrick Queen

Franchise Tag Likelihood: High
Projected Contract: 4 yrs, $73M, $18.25M APY, $38M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $7M

The skinny: After a rough first two seasons with the Ravens, Queen turned things around in 2022 by vastly improving in coverage and becoming a more reliable tackler, simultaneously increasing his tackle count and lowering the missed tackles that hurt him in 2020 and 2021. While cleaning up his missed tackles still needs to be a priority, his 133 total tackles this past season should be enough to quell the doubts of GMs bidding for his services.

The Ravens are in a tricky situation, having already awarded Roquan Smith a hefty $100 million, five year contract last year. They could have exercised the fifth-year option on the former first rounder last offseason, retaining Queen’s rights through the 2024 season, but hadn’t seen enough consistency to justify the price tag. The Ravens undoubtedly are regretting that decision now, as Queen’s play has likely elevated him to the highest-valued free agent linebacker this offseason.

Click here for the full Patrick Queen breakdown

16) G Kevin Dotson

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Medium
Projected Contract: 4 yrs, $72M, $18M APY, 36M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $6M

The skinny: After the Rams played their final preseason game against the Broncos, they agreed to two Day 3 pick swaps with the Steelers in exchange for Dotson, giving the Steelers their 2024 4th for the Steelers’ 5th, and their 2025 5th for the Steelers’ 6th. They played Dotson on his natural side, right guard, and Dotson dominated as a run blocker and continued showcasing strong pass blocking prowess. Considering how late he joined his new teammates, it’s remarkable how well he performed.

Although his 2023 pass blocking efficiency grade was the lowest of his career, the 97.4% figure is more than serviceable for a player that shined in the run game, and is backed by three seasons (though only one as a starter) of PBE’s above 98%.

He won’t reset the market in 2024, but Dotson went from a replacement-level valuation in the preseason to one of the top free agent guards on the market.

Click here for the full Kevin Dotson breakdown

17) DL Leonard Williams

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Medium
Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $52.5 million, $17.5 APY, $27.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $7M

The skinny: A trade-deadline move from the Giants to the Seahawks acted as a bit of a renaissance for Williams. His pressure rate went from 10.0 to 11.3% while his efforts in run defense appreciated considerably (50% increase in defensive stops).

While he won’t net the same payday as Madubuike, Williams does have 54 more pressures over the past three seasons. In a league that is constantly looking for pass rushers, Williams is a quality option that can play the run and disrupt the pass at an above league-average level.

Williams’ 54 pressures in 2023 was 11th most among interior defenders and at 30-years-old in 2024, he still should be an effective pass rusher for multiple years to come.

18) CB L’Jarius Sneed

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 4 yrs $64M, $16M APY, $35M fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $8.25M

The skinny: Sneed, a former fourth round draft pick, has quickly ascended into a No. 1 corner for a very talented Chiefs defense. Over the past three years, Sneed has maintained a yards per coverage snap of less than one, which compares favorably to both Carlton Davis and JC Jackson prior to their recent contract signings. Both Davis and Jackson signed for north of $14.5 million per year under lower salary caps so it makes sense that Sneed will exceed their APYs.

Sneed has been leveling up in 2023 with 16 forced incompletions, which ties for third in the NFL among all corners and his 52.6% allowed completion percentage is top-10, as well.

Sneed’s draft status will work against him to a certain degree, because priors last forever, but he will still be able to cash in with a sizable deal.

19) EDGE Za’Darius Smith

Franchise Tag Likelihood: High
Projected Contract: 2 yrs, $31M, $15.5M APY, $22.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $6.5M

The skinny: For a stretch earlier in his career, Smith was a true Batman. But over the past two years he has settled in as a high-quality Robin. Working opposite of Myles Garrett this season, Smith has racked up quality pressure numbers but just 5.5 sacks. Still his value is evident in not only the way he has affected opposing quarterbacks, but just how much the Browns defense has elevated upon his arrival.

And despite the low sack total in 2023 he is not far removed from consistently being a 10+ sack player. Over the past three seasons Smith has recorded 15.5 sacks and 138 pressures while missing significant time due to injury. That compares very evenly with Demarcus Lawrence who recorded 133 pressures and 14.5 sacks from 2019 - 2021 while also logging significant missed time due to injuries. Smith should be in-line for a market-adjusted contract similar to Lawrence.

20) EDGE Chase Young

Franchise Tag Likelihood: High
Projected Contract: 1 yr, $15.5M, $15.5M APY, $15.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $7.5M

The skinny: Finally healthy for the first time since his rookie season, Young once again showed the promise that made him the first overall pick in 2020. He ranked top-20 in Pro Football Focus’ pass rush win rate at 15.1% and his 41 pressures in true pass sets was 19th in the NFL among edge rushers.

Young has always been a high-floor, mid-ceiling player and that hasn’t changed much. But he has started to turn the narrative around his injuries. He will need one more season to fully put those concerns to bed so look for him to take a one-year deal to springboard him to a multi-year contract in 2025.

21) EDGE Bryce Huff

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 4 yrs, $58M, $14.5M APY, $17.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $5.5M

The skinny: A former undrafted free agent, Huff has developed into one of the most efficient pass rushers in the NFL. A part time player in a loaded Jets edge room, Huff logged eight sacks in his platform year. Huff’s 113 pressures and 13.5 sacks over the past three seasons compare favorably to Trey Hendrickson’s last three years in New Orleans before signing a sizable deal in Cincinnati.

Huff will get a chance to become a full-time player with a deal that eclipses $50 million due to his 16.39% pressure rate in addition to his overall contributions to one of the best defenses in the NFL.

22) CB Kendall Fuller

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $42M, $14M APY, $17.75M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $5.5M

The skinny: During a forgettable season for the Commanders, Kendall Fuller was a bright spot. He allowed less than 0.8 yards per coverage snap while limiting opposing receivers to less than 50 catches for the second consecutive season.

Fuller’s recent performance is eerily similar to that of the Bucs’ Jamel Dean prior to his signing a four year, $52 million deal. And Fuller has been steadier over a longer time frame. Because he will be 29 when the 2024 regular season starts he likely won’t be able to match the length of Dean’s contact. But he has a good opportunity to eclipse Dean’s $13 million APY.

23) DB Kyle Dugger

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Medium
Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $40.5M, $13.5M APY, $25M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $7M

The skinny: Dugger’s best comp for contract extended late in the 2023 season. Grant Delpit agreed to a three-year, $36 million deal with the Brown,s recently. Over the past three seasons Dugger has outperformed Delpit in tackles (278 to 276), interceptions (nine to six), passes defensed (20 to 17) and sacks (2.5 to 2.0).

And Dugger is playing more free safety than Delpit recently, which is typically the safety position that gets valued higher in free agency. As a versatile chess piece who can move up high, down into the box as well as play nickel against big slots and cover tight ends, Dugger should have a robust market of suitors who want him to help unlock their defense to be more multiple.

24) QB Ryan Tannehill

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 yr, $13.5M, $13.5M APY, $6M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4M

The skinny: Tannehill lost his starting job in 2023 to rookie Will Levis as the Titans made a full transition to a rebuild. But went pressed into the starting lineup due to injury Tannehill still showed he can play in limited reps in 2023. He was able to maintain his career rates in big time throws and turnover-worthy plays and in the right system behind a good offensive line (which he did not have his last few years in Tennessee) Tannehill can still provide solid quarterback play for a fringe contender who loses the quarterback musical chairs in the off-season.

Tannehill will most likely be a late signing for a regime needing to win now that lacks the resources to pursue Kirk Cousins and the draft capital to land one of the premier quarterbacks in the draft. Tannehill’s deal will likely be incentive laden, full of achievable targets that the signing team will be able to defer to 2025’s salary cap by making them “Not Likely To Be Earned” by the league’s definition.

25) WR Gabe Davis

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 yrs $37.5M, $12.5M APY, $15M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $6.5M

The skinny: Davis provides a skill that is sorely lacking in the NFL right now. In a world of two-high looks, receivers that can still stretch the field are at a premium. Enter Davis who has sported an average yards per catch of over 16 for the last three years and an average depth of target that has never dropped below 14.5 and Davis is the prototypical deep threat in the modern NFL.

While Davis provides a valuable skill, he is far from a reliable option. His catch percentage has been below 60% every year of his career and he has never caught more than 50 passes in a season. Davis’ 1.42 yards per route run in 2023 was 57th out of 83 qualifying receivers.

Still, Davis’ field-stretching abilities can act as a force multiplier of sorts opening up the short-to-intermediate area for a creative offensive coordinator while simultaneously offering a fearless quarterback the opportunity to push the ball downfield.

26) T Tyron Smith

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Very Low
Projected Contract: 2 yrs, $25M, $12.5M APY, $15M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4.5M

The skinny: If Tyron Smith’s body wasn’t consistently succumbing to a variety of injuries, his value would be right up there with Trent Williams. However, despite playing the most snaps in a season since 2018, Smith still missed three games to injury in 2023. He still hasn’t shown a drop-off in ability when he’s healthy, but it’s unlikely a team is willing to roll the dice on him lasting more than a season or two.

Unless Smith decides to retire, it would make sense to see him go to a contender that will keep his Year One cap hit as low as possible, spread out the signing bonus across five years, but bank an “option” year in 2025 that would be a reasonable cap hit if he manages to stay healthy in 2024 but still entices him to play another season.

27) LB Frankie Luvu

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 yrs, $24M, $12M APY, $16 GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $6.5M

The skinny: After thriving in a rotational role for the Panthers in 2021, Frankie Luvu signed a two year, $9 million extension under the pretense that he had earned himself a starting opportunity. Luvu took that opportunity and ran, despite playing on one of the more disappointing teams over the past two years.

Luvu does his best work at the line of scrimmage or in the offense’s backfield; while he doesn’t qualify as a liability in coverage, he is far better at rushing the passer and stuffing the run. His “undrafted” pedigree might slightly affect his market, as he’s only had two years of starting experience to counterbalance it and hasn’t really improved on his 16.1% career missed tackle rate, but his ability to get to the quarterback and his heavy lifting in the run game are sure to give him a respectable contract.

Don’t be shocked if he bets on himself and takes a shorter deal to position himself for another contract negotiation with more starting experience on his resume.

28) RB Josh Jacobs

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Project Contract: 3 yrs $36M, $12M APY, $40M fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $6M

The skinny: Jacobs tops our running backs list as his age and production over the past three years outpace the two other high-profile running backs hitting the market along with him. He has more games played, rushing yards, touchdowns and receiving yards than both Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley while entering his age 26 year as opposed to the age-27 season the other two are approaching. Jacobs also sports the highest missed tackle forced rate of any free agent running back at 21.52%.

Jacobs still presents the best combination of prolonged success balanced with relative youth that will be attractive to teams looking for a bell-cow back. But with the disappointing season he is coming off of he is unlikely to improve much on the $11,791,000 franchise tag he played on in 2023, but should be in line to get some long-term security in the form of a multi-year deal.

Click here for the full Josh Jacobs breakdown

29) C Lloyd Cushenberry

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 yrs $36M, $12M APY, $20M fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4M

The skinny: Cushenberry, a former third round pick, has been a starter since day one in 2020 for the Denver Broncos. After a poor rookie year, he has steadily improved each year thereafter. It all culminated in 2023 with him becoming one of the best centers in football. Cushenberry’s pass blocking has always outpaced his run blocking as his pass efficiency has eclipsed 98% in each of the past two years and he has allowed only 18 pressures and one sack in the past two years.

For a cap-strapped contender looking to bolster their offensive line with Cushenberry they could structure the deal with void years to drop his 2024 cap hit to just $4.5 million backloading the deal for a year three cap hit of $13.5 million and $6 million in dead cap in 2027.

Click here for the full Lloyd Cushenberry breakdown

30) S Xavier McKinney

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Medium
Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $34.95M, $11.65M APY, $22.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $6.5M

The skinny: McKinney has been a very good player since the moment he entered the league. Mostly deployed as a deep safety, where he does his best work, he cans still be effective from most spots on the field, including the box.

McKinney provides stability at the back end of a defense with great coverage skills and solid tackling. His career 7.3% missed tackle rate is excellent and he pairs it with a sub 70% catch rate allowed and a yards per coverage snap of 0.50.

With two seasons of 3+ interceptions in the last three years, McKinney combines quality snap-to-snap play with playmaking ability. His deal should get his contract into the top-15 at the position.

31) DT D.J. Reader

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $34.5M, $11.5M APY, $22.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $6.5M

The skinny: Reader has been the anchor of a very good Bengals defense for four years now. He was a part of a stretch run of free agent signings that helped transform the team and usher them into their recent era of success behind quarterback Joe Burrow.

When on the field Reader is an excellent run defender who opposing offenses have to game plan for. He has recorded more than 20 defensive stops in each of his past three seasons. But while he’s a quality pocket pusher, as a pass rusher, he has never generated high pressure or sack numbers.

At an 8.2% pressure rate since 2020 with just three sacks during that time frame he won’t warrant the first-tier contracts other dominant interior defenders have been receiving of late. And with his most recent season-ending quad injury he has now averaged just 11 games per season over the life of his expiring deal. Those two points will have a downward push on his value when accounting for his next contract.

32) EDGE Jadeveon Clowney

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 yr $10.5M, $10.5M APY, $10.5M fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.1M

The skinny: Clowney has been a mercenary for hire for half-a-decade now. As a high-floor player who has been a strong run defender, Clowney has been a last-minute option for contenders looking to shore up their edge room. Those mercenary ways typically netted him one-year deals in the range of $8-10 million. But in 2023 Clowney had to take a small two-and-a-half million dollar pact with the Ravens.

Clowney has found a version of the fountain of youth under defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald in Baltimore, setting a career high in pressures with 69 and logging his highest sack total (8.5) since his last year in Houston in 2018.

This resurgence should help Clowney cash in yet again on another one year pact while getting him back to an eight figure payday.

33) RB Saquon Barkley

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $31.5M, $10.5M APY, $15M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4.2M

The skinny: Once considered a generational prospect at running back, injuries have reduced his effectiveness to where Barley will no longer be considered a player who can reset his positional market. Still, Barkley is one of the best in the league at his position and a true three-down back.

With 962 rushing yards and a yards per carry of less than 4.0 in 2023, Barkley’s production fell substantially from the year prior when he re-asserted himself as one of the best in the game. But Barkley was able to eclipse 10 total touchdowns while averaging over 45 catches per season over the past three years.

Long gone are the days where Barkley can be counted on for 3+ yards after contact per carry or a forced missed tackle rate north of 20%. But Barkley’s 60 carries of 10+ yards since the beginning of 2022 is second to only one other running back…Christian McCaffrey.

34) RB Derrick Henry

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Project Contract: 2 yrs $20M, $10M APY, $12M fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $5M

The skinny: Henry continues to operate as one of the better running backs in the NFL, but there are cracks forming in the foundation, as 2023 matched his career-low of 4.2 yards per carry in a season. Although some of that was due to a poor offensive line in front of him.

His yards after contact per carry and rate of carries that went for 10+ yards were both on the downswing. Add to that Tennessee made a concerted effort to get Tyjae Spears touches and Henry’s percent of team carries has fallen from 75% in 2022 to 67% in 2023 and it looks like he has certainly hit the back-nine of his career.

There is still reason for hope that King Henry can continue to perform well enough as a feature back though. His missed tackle forced rate is still hovering around 20% and he still ranks in the top-half of the league in most second-level measures of running back performance. A team could make a small-length bet on getting the last out of his amazing career.

Click here for the full Derrick Henry breakdown

35) WR Odell Beckham Jr.

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 yr, $10M, $10M APY, $10M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.6M

The skinny: Beckham has done a good job restoring image after knee injuries had robbed him of some of his prime years. But his overall production is still not that of a premier receiver. Averaging just 4.4 targets and 2.5 catches per game, Beckham is mostly a quality compliment at this point in his career.

While he isn’t a volume option anymore he did set a career high in yards per reception (16.1) in 2023. It is unlikely he is able to match the $15 million deal he got from the Ravens in 2023 as teams are unlikely to believe he is a No. 1 receiver anymore. Still Beckham can play mercenary for hire as an intriguing and occasionally dynamic secondary option.

36) LB Jordyn Brooks

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Medium
Projected Contract: 2 yrs, $19M, $9.5M APY, $7M GTD
One Year Cap Hit: $2M

The skinny: Jordyn Brooks stands out as a productive tackler and run defender at the heart of Seattle defense, and barely saw regression in a season where he defied medical projections by recovering from a torn ACL and getting back on the field within eight months of injury. It would have made sense for Brooks to have a slow start to the season, but his first-half splits actually far outpaced his second half. 53 of 74 his solo tackles and 32 of his 42 stops came in the first eight games of Brooks’s season, potentially because of recurring ankle issues throughout December.

Had Brooks notched another Herculean 160+ combined tackle season as he had the prior two, he’d have a strong case to compete against Queen as the top linebacker on the market. As it stands, Brooks will have suitors but he’ll likely be disappointed with the initial offers and have to settle with a shorter-term deal as he proves his health and trajectory are on the right track.

Click here for the full Jordyn Brooks breakdown

37) EDGE Mike Danna

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 yrs, $19M, $9.5M APY, $12.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4.9M

The skinny: Danna doesn’t have the name value that Uche has, but is just as versatile. Where Uche can drop due to his athleticism, the Chiefs have used Danna as both an interior and edge rusher depending on down and distance. At 6 '2, and 257 pounds, Danna isn’t the size of a typical edge who is brought inside on long and late downs, but he has been very effective in that role for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnolo.

And he has been arguably more productive than Uche as well. Danna set career highs in 2023 in pass rush reps (464), sacks (6.5) and pressures (41). His trajectory is similar to Charles Omenihu who recently signed for an $8.0M APY in 2022.

38) CB Kenny Moore

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 yrs $18.5M, $9.25M APY, $9.5M fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.5M

The skinny: Moore has been the model of consistency over the course of his career as the model of what a traditional slot corner should be. But as offenses are re-defining the slot receiver position with the increased usage of “big slots,” Moore’s 5’9 stature continues to work against him. Despite that lack of size he is still a sound tackler and has never been afraid to put his head down and lay down a hit as evidenced by his 258 tackles over the past three years. And he has consistently shown the ability to make high-profile plays with 55 passes defensed, 17 interceptions and 9.5 sacks over the course of his career.

But Moore will be trying to improve upon the market-setting deal he signed in 2019 in his age-29 season. Despite still maintaining a respectable snaps per target (7.2) and yards per snap (1.01) ratio Moore might not find the most robust market. Still we are betting that given the increased importance of the slot receiver, there will be an increase in need and valuation for good, reliable slot corners and Moore is able to reset the market once again.

39) DL Denico Autry

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $9M, $9M APY, $6,000,000 GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $9M

The skinny: Autry is finishing a three year contract with the Titans that earned him $21,500,000 over three years while averaging almost ten sacks a season. Autry’s 28.5 sacks over this span was the most productive stretch across his career, and his 11.5 sacks this season set his career high. Despite Autry’s impressive late-career numbers, he’ll have a difficult time finding a team willing to sign a player turning 34 to a multi-year contract.

Autry should still command a respectable APY until his pass rushing starts trending the opposite direction. Sack specialists get paid, and Autry presents an extremely attractive and affordable bridge option for teams in need of a respectable edge threat or solid bookend partner to a premiere pass rusher.

40) DT Grover Stewart

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 yrs, $27M, $9M APY, $16.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4.5M

The skinny: Despite missing several games due to suspension, Stewart still had a productive year in 2023. Making up one half of one of the better interior duos in the NFL he continued to prove he is one of the best run-stuffing nose tackles in the league.

Stewart had the best pressure rate of his career while adding 24 run stops. Grover eats up double teams, sets the tone in the run game and frees up other pass rushers to win one-on-ones. He can help defenses stay stout against the run with lighter boxes which gives them the opportunity to modernize. That’s a valuable commodity for a league that is ever-evolving.

41) TE Dalton Schultz

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 years, $26.25 million, $8.75M APY, $12.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4.5 million

The skinny: Schultz should have received a sizable deal last year, but missed the boat on long-term pacts. No matter as he put up another solid season ranking top-12 in catches (59) and yards (635) while logging more than half of his snaps in-line. Schultz has been a picture of consistency for the past four years since becoming a full-time starter in 2020, averaging 69 catches, 712 yards, and six touchdowns over that timeframe.

Schultz is a dependable starter who lacks flash but provides plenty of substance, averaging 1.47 yards per route run and 7.7 average depth of target. He should have a more robust market of suitors this year and get the multi-year deal he has been seeking for two years, now.

42) DL Calais Campbell

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
1 years, $8.5 million, $8.5 APY, $8.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.9 million

The skinny: Campbell is aging like the finest of wines. At 37-years-old and working on a one-year, $7.5 million deal, he logged his most snaps and sacks since 2019. Campbell’s unique combination of size, length and versatility helped transform a Falcons defense from a below-average unit into one of the better squads in the NFL.

Coming off of his best year in some time and still looking for a Super Bowl to add to his storied accomplishments, he should be able to seek a small raise from his 2023 salary, while finding multiple suitors from likely playoff-contenders.

43) CB Chidobe Awuzie

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 years, $8.5 million, $8.5 APY, $8.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.9 million

The skinny: Awuzie battled back from a torn ACL in 2022 only to be benched mid-season in 2023. Despite that, he finished the season as a solid starter. He has been a consistent performer, allowing 1.09 yards per coverage snap over the past three years.

His ball skills have receded recently, as he has not recorded an interception since 2021 - he has just 11 passes defensed over the past two years. Awuzie should find multiple suitors in free agency looking for a solid complementary piece to help shore up their secondary with a consistent performer.

44) DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 Year, $17.0M, $8.5 APY, $8.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $6.0M

The skinny: One of the most physical slot defenders in the NFL, he has played well every season since arriving in the league, including six interceptions in 2022 with Philadelphia and 38 passes defensed in five seasons, Gardner-Johnson will likely look for a multi-year deal and sacrifice some of the APY he could earn on a one-year pact.

Gardner-Johnson’s versatility as both a slot defender and box safety allow him to be a multi-solution for a team looking for a versatile and multiple back seven.

Click here for the full C.J. Gardner-Johnson breakdown

45) G Damien Lewis

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 Year, $25.5M, $8.5 APY, $16.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.5M

The skinny: Although he has been a starter since he was drafted in 2020, Lewis had his real breakout year when the Seattle Seahawks shocked the NFL world in 2022 and rode Geno Smith to a playoff appearance. That year, Lewis managed an extremely impressive 98.2 pass blocking efficiency rating, only allowing 19 total pressures in the regular season. Lewis is a big-bodied mauler that won All-Rookie Team honors from the Pro Football Writers Association, and despite a slightly down 2023 season, showcased flashes of significant upside throughout the course of his rookie contract.

Damien would be wise to keep the contract length at three years since he won’t be pushing pricing boundaries, and get back to the free agent well while he’s young enough to sign another significant multi-year deal.

46) DT Fletcher Cox

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 yr $8.5M, $8.5M APY, $8.5M fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.9 million

The skinny: At 33 years old, you would think Cox would have been a part of the problem that plagued the Eagles defense in 2023. You would likely be wrong. Despite his age, Cox still produced at a high level, ranking 16th in the NFL among interior defensive linemen in pressures with 49.

Cox started 15 games, marking the 11th straight season where he started 14 or more. His iron-man-esque ability to show up is only surpassed by the demeanor and effort he applies to every rep. Cox was perhaps the only player on the Eagles defense who could have said he was proud of his performance against the Bucs in their Wild Card loss to Tampa Bay.

He can still be disruptive and would be a fantastic contributor to any defensive line.

47) S Geno Stone

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 years, $25.5 million, $8.5M APY, $12M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4.0 million

The skinny: Stone has gone from seventh-round pick to starting safety over four years, steadily growing his snap count with each passing year. 2023 marked his breakout season, as he tallied seven interceptions while operating within one of the most innovative and impressive defenses in the league.

Stone has primarily operated as a free safety, where his coverage skills shine. Stone’s 0.25 yards per coverage snap was fourth and his 50.8 QB rating against was sixth among all safeties with at least 300 coverage snaps.

Stone will be a perfect compliment to a team that has a very good box safety that allows him to stay up top where he does his best work.

48) EDGE Josh Uche

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 year, $8.5 million, $8.5M APY, $4.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4.9 million

The skinny: Uche was never able to become a full-time player in Bill Belicheck’s multiple defense. 2022 was his high-water mark with 373 snaps. But when given the chance to pin his ears back and get after the passer, he is an extremely valuable and efficient rusher. He has 93 pressures on 512 pass rush snaps in the past two years which is good for an 18.2% pressure rate.

Uche is undersized but extremely athletic, so there is a world where he can be a three-down player for a team willing to use him in versatile ways. He has the potential to be a quality second piece to an established No. 1 edge rusher.

49) CB Stephon Gilmore

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 yr $8.5M, $8.5M APY, $8.5M fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.9 million

The skinny: Since a disappointing final year in New England, Gilmore has enjoyed a career resurgence playing for three clubs over the past three years. Still making plays on the ball at 33-years-old, Gilmore is no longer the top cornerback in the NFL. But he still provides quality play as a starter and can work as a quality No. 2 perimeter defender.

On the other hand, Gilmore will be entering his age-34 season and there are some signs that his play is slipping. His coverage snaps per target and yards allowed per coverage snap metrics are both trending in the wrong direction. It is reasonable for potential suitors to fear next year is the year that the wheels fall for a guy playing a position that requires said wheels. This will call for another one-year deal (the third in a row for Gilmore) at a lower APY than Gilmore’s statistical production would normally warrant.

50) WR Tyler Boyd

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 yrs $16.5M, $8.25M APY, $7M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4.5 million

The skinny: Boyd has been a solid depth option in a pass-first attack in Cincinnati. Over the past three years the Bengals have had to often rely on Boyd to be their No. 2 receiver due to injuries to Tee Higgins and J’Marr Chase, but Boyd has not been reliable in that role. Now five years removed from his last 1,000 yard season and with a yards per route run number that has trended down since 2018, Boyd is now a quality third option as a slot receiver.

Boyd’s average depth of target in 2023 was a near career-low 7.0 and his yards per reception dipped below 10.0 for the first time in his career. Add in that less than half of his catches went for a first down and Boyd’s profile is that of a sure-handed but explosive receiver on the back-nine of his career.

51) C Andre James

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 Years, $24 million, $8M APY, $14M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.5 million

The skinny: Despite the chaos around him, James has been a remarkably consistent anchor of the Raiders’ line, hovering right around a 98% pass block-efficiency rating and starting over 960 snaps each season. He also deserves a nod for being a key cog in the machine that earned Josh Jacobs the rushing title in 2022. For the most part, he’s been an available and reliable presence, which is invaluable for the focal point of any offensive line.

The league has recently recognized a strong pocket starts with a sturdy interior. James might not be a flashy name yet, but he’s shown he can be a solid foundational piece to a line in a variety of schemes and situations.

Click here for the full Andre James breakdown

52) WR Darnell Mooney

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 years, $16.0 million, $8.0M APY, $8.0M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4.6 million

The skinny: Mooney has been plagued by subpar quarterback play for much of his career. After posting over 1,000 yards in 2021, Mooney failed to reach 60 targets in each of the following two years. Early in his career, he was mostly an outside receiver but has moved to the slot over 60% of the time during the past two seasons.

Mooney is still an intriguing talent with speed to burn. He should look to find an opportunity with a proven quarterback in need of a deep threat to help restore his value as a quality second option in an effective passing attack before looking for a bigger payday.

53) S Jordan Whitehead

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 3 Year, $24 million, $8M APY, $10M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.6 million

The skinny: Whitehead has been one of the most consistent box safeties in the league for the better part of five years, now. But one area he doesn’t get enough credit in is his ability to play in deep zone as a part of two-high looks.

Whitehead is a physical run defender, but is prone to missing tackles, as evidenced by his missed tackle rate being north of 15% in all but one year of his career.

The veteran safety will find work because, despite the missed tackles, he is still a versatile and physical defender who contributes multiple splash plays year-in and year-out.

54) EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 years, $15.0 million, $7.5 APY, $10.0M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.2 million

The skinny: Van Ginkel has shown periodic glimpses of big plays over his first four years in the league. It started his rookie year when he created several turnovers on special teams. But over the past three years, he has been an exceptionally efficient pass rusher, logging 109 pressures on just 734 pass rush snaps.

His best opportunity to show what he can contribute in a larger sample size came late in 2023 following a season-ending injury to Jaelan Phillips. Over the last six weeks of the regular season, Van Ginkel totaled 26 pressures and two sacks over 145 pass rush reps.

Still, it remains to be seen whether Van Ginkel can ascend into a three-down player. Therefore, his payday may not be exactly what he expects.

55) WR Curtis Samuel

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 years, $15.0 million, $7.5 APY, $9.0M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.0 million

The skinny: Samuel secured an $11.5M APY deal from Washington following a final two-year stretch in Carolina where he averaged 65 catches, 739 yards and 4.5 touchdowns per year. After being lost for virtually the entire 2021 season, he has averaged 63 catches for 634 yards and four touchdowns these past two years. That’s not a far cry from his last two seasons with the Panthers.

But Samuel has also lost some of the dynamic playmaking allure he had during the 2021 offseason. Some of that is due to him being three years older and some of that is due to usage. In his last year in Carolina, he carried the ball 41 times for 200 yards and two touchdowns, as a true do-anything gadget player. This year, he totaled only seven carries for 39 yards and one touchdown.

With a much more crowded receiver market this year compared to last, Samuel will be lucky to secure 75% of his current APY.

56) RB Tony Pollard

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
3 yrs $22.5M, $7.50M APY, $13M fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.5 million

The skinny: It took Dallas a while to decide Pollard was a better back than Ezekiel Elliott (given the individual point each player was in their career), but they hedged their bets on Pollard by having him play out 2023 on the franchise tag to see if he was the three-down back he wanted them to believe he was. The results saw him regress in almost every category that matters.

Pollard struggled to amass 1,000 yards despite seeing the highest number of snaps and carries of his career. He also saw a significant drop in his yards per carry, yards after contact and yards per reception.

Still Pollard missed tackle forced rate (which was better than both Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley in 2023), combined with his overall value as both a runner and a receiver, combined with the relatively low miles on his tires should have teams lining up to give him a 2nd-tier deal on a two-to-three year timeframe.

57) TE Hunter Henry

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 years, $15.0 million, $7.5 APY, $7.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.5 million

The skinny: Henry is coming off of a lucrative contract signed in 2021 that had him close to the top of the market. To his credit, he was able to produce enough to make it to the end of the deal, but maybe not live up to the $12.5 million APY it cost the Patriots. 133 catches for 1,531 yards and 17 touchdowns over three seasons is a bit light for that price.

Adding on to that: Henry's catch percentage and yards per catch were both below his career average in 2023. Suddenly, you have the picture of a player starting to decline.

Still, Henry is a red zone threat who can play in-line, as well as in the slot, and that has value. He won’t get nearly as much on this contract as he enters his 30s, but there will still be a market for him.

58) LB Devin White

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 yr $7.0M, $7.0M APY, $5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4.5 million

The skinny: Once seeking a nine-figure contract, White will have to settle for a one-year prove it deal. With elite athleticism for his position, and with pass rushing numbers that would make some edge rushers red with envy, White has struggled in the two areas that are most important for off-ball linebackers: run defense and in coverage.

White’s tackle numbers are off the charts, having averaged over 110 during the first five years of his career. And with 141 pressures and 23 sacks there is perhaps no better blitzing linebacker in the NFL. But even in a Todd Bowles blitz-heavy scheme - that only accounts for 13% of the defensive snaps he has played in his career. As a run defender, White shows little feel or instincts which negates his explosive speed. This has led him to recording an average depth of tackle near four in each of his past three seasons. Add to that a coverage profile that finds him often overrunning his assignment or out of position, altogether.

The sum of all the parts, including reports that his locker room became frustrated with him in 2023, is a player defensive coordinators will be reluctant to count on.

59) LB Lavonte David

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 yr $7.0M, $7.0M APY, $7M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.0 million

The skinny: David really has no comps as his play on the field over the past few seasons was worth way more than the one-year, $4 million contract he re-upped for in 2023 with the Bucs. but peel back the context of the situation and you can see why David signed for peanuts…and why he will likely get more in 2024.

David has been a Buc since the team drafted him in the second round of the 2012 NFL Draft. Facing extreme cap constraints last year since they took the entirety of the Tom Brady dead cap. David wanted to retire a Buc so he agreed to a deal far below his value. It is likely that if he wants to continue his career for another year it will again be with Tampa Bay. And there is a good chance the Bucs repay David for his willingness to sign a team-friendly deal last year with a new deal that guarantees his performance bonuses for the new deal.

60) CB Steven Nelson

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 years, $7.0 million, $7.0 APY, $7.0M GTD,
Year One Cap Hit: $2.6 million

The skinny: Nelson was a major part of a Texans defensive turnaround that helped lead them all the way to the AFC South Divisional title and a playoff win. Nelson also led a cornerback room that saw the development of 2022 first-round pick, Derek Stingley Jr.

Nelson was no slouch either, racking up four interceptions and 12 passes defensed while holding opposing receivers to 0.92 yards per coverage snap. The former third-round pick will be 31 in 2024, so a multi-year pact is unlikely, but he should still find multiple suitors willing to give him a solid financial commitment.

61) EDGE D.J. Wonnum

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 years, $13.0 million, $6.5M APY, $5.0M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.0 million

The skinny: Wonnum isn’t a household name outside of Minnesota, but he has been a consistent contributor to the Vikings defense since getting selected in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The long and lean pass rusher is a capable run defender (32 stops this year), while adding 30-40 pressures per season over the past three years.

Wonnum is a solid rotational edge who can step into a starting role if injuries require it. That’s a valuable commodity in the NFL, where he can raise the floor of the room and help a defense continue to operate throughout a long and grueling season. His profile is similar to Dorance Armstrong in Dallas a couple of years ago before he signed a two-year, $12 million extension with the Cowboys.

62) S Jordan Fuller

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 years, $12.0 million, $6.0M APY, $5.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.3 million

The skinny: Fuller had a great platform season with 94 tackles, three interceptions and three forced fumbles. When you add in that production with his play as a solid two-high player who can be relied on to keep things in front of him, you have the makings of a quality starter.

Fuller isn’t a ballhawk and lacks the athleticism to truly operate as a single-high player. However, as the league continues to move more towards two-high coverages Fuller can continue to make a living as a capable starter.

63) G Kevin Zeitler

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $6M, $6.0M APY, $6M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3M

The skinny: Zeitler finishes a three-year contract with the Baltimore Ravens as one of the best pass-blocking guards in the league. He hasn’t allowed more than three sacks in a season since 2019, and consistently puts up pass-blocking efficiency ratings above 98%, never finishing lower than sixth amongst guards in the PBE metric in his time with the Ravens.

He’ll start the 2024 season 34-years-young. While his pass blocking is elite, his run blocking has been on a downward trend with age, evidenced by his declining PFF run block grades over the past two years. It’s not enough of a liability to keep a pass-first team from improving most offensive lines, especially on pass-heavy teams. He’s not going to find many multi-year suitors, and teams haven’t opened their coffers for interior lineman in their mid-30s (unless you’re Jason Kelce and helped reinvent the quarterback sneak), but Zeitler should command a respectable one-year deal as he transitions to mercenary work to finish his career.

64) RB D'Andre Swift

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 4 years, $22.0 million, $5.5M APY, $12.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4.2 million

The skinny: It took Swift four years and a trade, but he finally put it all together for a full season of production. Swift ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing yards (1,049) and top-10 in yards per carry (4.6). Running behind a top offensive line helped bolster those marks as his advanced stats looked less rosy.

For instance, his 2.42 yards after contact per attempt was 35th out of 38 qualifying backs and his 18.78% missed tackle forced rate was 28th out of 61 running backs with at least 75 carries. Swift is clearly a starting running back in the NFL who can contribute both on the ground and as a receiver (149 catches in the last three years). But he will have to contend with the idea of “replacement level” at his position which will diminish his market, overall.

65) DL DaQuan Jones

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 year, $5.5 million, $5.5M APY, $5.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.5 million

The skinny: After missing only one game in the previous six years, Jones was unable to complete even half of the 2023 season after suffering a pectoral tear in Week 5. He was able to make a valiant return in Week 17 and continued into the postseason, picking up on what had been a very productive and efficient start.

Jones’ 14% pressure rate in 2023 was easily the best of a career that has known him to be more of a run-stuffing middle-man. With 30 defensive stops in 24 games for the Bills over the past two years, he has shown no fall-off in play despite now being 32-years-old.

66) WR Josh Reynolds

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 2 Year, $11M, $5.5M APY, $5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.5M

The skinny: The Detroit Lions offense heavily featured the running game and standout performances from their top-two receiving options, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Behind these two was an ensemble cast featuring Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond and Jameson Williams. Reynolds did a yeoman’s job as the starter opposite St. Brown, and was a high-effort blocker on running plays, but didn’t break out as anything more than a transitional piece, while the team anxiously awaits for Jameson Williams to break out as the star they drafted him to be.

Reynolds could certainly remain in Detroit as the Lions have one of the healthier budget sheets and a need until Williams starts his ascension. However, Reynolds isn’t going to be paid as a No. 2 receiving option, as he likely hovers around WR3 or WR4 on most rosters, a position on the pecking order that’s becoming easier to replace with Day 2 or even Day 3 rookies.

67) DL Javon Kinlaw

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 year, $5.25M, $5.25M APY, $2M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.25M

The skinny: Kinlaw has not lived up to his first-round draft status. Injuries have been a major contributor, but with just five sacks in four years, it is safe to say things have not gone as planned. While he was finally healthy in 2023, he was still not a starter for the entire season. Still extremely talented, he shows glimpses of being an effective player every so often.

Those glimpses, combined with the athletic traits that helped him get selected with the 14th overall pick in 2020 will help Kinlaw secure one of the more lucrative “prove-it” deals of the off-season.

Kinlaw’s 2023 season showed some promise as he recorded more pressures (31) than he had in his first three seasons combined. He will look to find an opportunity to get a full season as a starter to re-establish his value.

68) LB Bobby Wagner

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 year, $5 million, $5.0M APY, $5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.0 Million

The skinny: Wagner still brings name value and veteran leadership to any locker room he steps into. But entering his age 34 season, he can’t move in space like he used to. The diminished range and mobility has made Wagner much more of a liability in pass coverage and he is best suited to be an early-down backer where he can still fit the run at a high level.

Wagner can still play, as evidenced by his sub-5 percent missed tackle rate and 71 defensive stops to go along with his 183 combined tackles and 3.5 sacks in 2023. Still, it's unlikely he finds an extremely robust market. If he wants to play another season, Wagner is likely looking at a slightly smaller deal than the one-year, $5.5 million contract he signed when reuniting with Seattle last year.

69) T Jonah Williams

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $5M, $5M APY, 2.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4M

Despite flashing potential at his new right tackle position in the first half of 2023, Williams regressed to the mean and again allowed eight sacks this past year. His pass blocking efficiency improved from 95.8% and 95.9% to 96.4%, but no teams are chasing mediocre run blockers that can’t scratch a 97% PBE over a three-year stretch. His early career is reminiscent of D.J. Fluker, a fellow first round tackle that provided just enough tape over his entry deal for teams to understand his ceiling, and limit him to short-term deals at replacement-level valuations.

Click here for the full Jonah Williams breakdown

70) T Trent Brown

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $5M, $5M APY, $3M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.4M

The skinny: After leveraging one year with the Patriots into a monster contract with the Raiders, Trent Brown ultimately was chased out of Raider Nation and went right back to Bill Belichick. Bill squeezed another couple of serviceable years out of Brown, but the relationship finally soured in 2023, culminating in Trent being a healthy scratch for the Patriots in Week 17. Rumors of Brown’s habitual tardiness caused him to lash out at the media, and the healthy scratch appeared to be the final straw between the Patriots organization and Brown.

Brown can still be a solid tackle when healthy, but finding a team willing to offer him a multi-year deal will be a tall order considering the lengthy injury history and the combative nature of this last season. He should get work as a one-year mercenary in 2024, and proving he can succeed outside of Bill Belichick’s Patriot Way will be just as important as showing he can stay healthy.

71) QB Sam Darnold

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 year, $5M, $5M APY, $4M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.2M

The skinny: Darnold signed with the 49ers in the 2023 offseason as a reset from the chaos he endured in the first five years of his career with the Jets and Panthers. He went to a team that saw Jimmy Garappolo play exceptionally well when healthy, and rode the last pick of the 2022 draft to the NFC Conference Championship.

Darnold took a decent snap share in two losses, one as a starter. Although he looked serviceable, Darnold didn’t showcase potential as a viable starter in the NFL. He did look the part of an NFL backup quarterback, providing zero distractions while able to contribute a yeoman’s performance in a pinch. Expect Darnold to take a similar backup-valued contract in 2024 as he continues to attempt to improve until the next opportunity comes his way.

Click here for the full Sam Darnold breakdown

72) S Darnell Savage

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 years, $9M, $4.5M APY, $5.85M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.25M

The skinny: A former first-round pick, Savage had his fifth-year option exercised after he recorded eight interceptions in his first three years in the league. Since then he has only added one (in the regular season) to that total in the last two years.

Savage is a liability as a tackler, posting missed tackle rates of over 15% in every season since entering the league. Despite that, Savage is still solid in coverage. He allowed just 0.57 yards per man coverage snap in 2023.

Ultimately, coming off of a down year with multiple deep safeties available, Savage will find a depressed market awaiting him.

73) WR/KR Jamal Agnew

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 year, $4.25M, $4.25M APY, $2.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.05M

The skinny: Agnew’s greatest value comes from his abilities as a returner, where he has garnered an All-Pro and a Pro Bowl nod since 2017. Last year, he ranked fifth in kick return average and ninth in punt return average.

What has been most impressive with Agnew is his development as an offensive weapon. Drafted as a defensive back, Agnew has switched to the offensive side of the ball, and despite limited touches, he's maintained a 70% catch rate -or higher- over the past two years, along with a mark of 1.67 yards per route run and four touchdowns.

His ability to contribute as a gadget player who gets schemed touches provides additional versatility to his roster spot. But above all else, Agnew is a potential home run every time he touches the ball - and that explosiveness should keep him employed.

74) LB Drue Tranquil

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 2 Years, $8.5M, $4.25M APY, $1.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.05M

The skinny: Drue Tranquill was a very interesting litmus test for just how deflated the linebacker market has become for second- and third-tier ‘backers. Drue entered free agency in 2023 after his first full year as a starter.

He played admirably for the Chargers in that final season, racking up five sacks, 52 stops, 146 total tackles, an interception, and four pass break-ups. Despite showing a well-rounded profile as a starter and an upward trajectory, the market just wasn’t there and Tranquil had to settle for a one-year prove-it contract with the Chiefs - and it didn’t even have a full-time starting role available.

Nevertheless, the veteran linebacker was a great investment for Kansas City. He posted another 4.5 sacks and 79 total tackles, despite only starting eight games. The biggest change from 2022 to 2023 was Drue decreasing his missed tackle percentage from 15.3% to 7.8%, which might be enough to entice a team to lock him into a relatively cheap starter’s salary.

75) LB Kenneth Murray Jr.

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 2 Years, $8.5M, $4.25M APY, $1.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.05M

Staley’s defense was overly complex and caused may of the Chargers’ players to regress, and Murray was often the poster child of this issue. There were flashes of excellence when it seemed like Murray could tune out the noise and play more instinctually at the line of scrimmage, but those moments were far outshined by the many instances of being lost in space and pushed out of run fits.

Murray’s an excellent buy-low, post-hype option for a team that has room for a throwback-style linebacker, and letting Murray play in a narrow-scoped role where he can focus on tormenting running backs and green dog blitzing could lead to a comeback.

Click here for the full Kenneth Murray Jr. breakdown

76) CB Keisean Nixon

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 years, $8 million, $4.0M APY, $3.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.7 Million

The skinny: Nixon’s deal will value his returner abilities over his production as a cornerback. A two-time, first-team All-Pro returner, he's averaged over nine-yards per punt return and 26-yards per kick return over the past two years, with a touchdown to his name.

In 2023, Nixon played a more outsized role on defense, getting in on over 800 snaps and 13 starts as a slot corner. Allowing 1.17 yards per coverage snap, Nixon was far from great in that role, but it does add some positional versatility for the stellar special teamer.

77) Yannick Ngakoue

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 year, $4 million, $4.0M APY, $4M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.0 Million

The skinny: Ngakoue is more of a name than a player of substance at this point in his career. He has long been a liability in the run game, recently his pass rush prowess has been on the downhill slope as well. Having missed the final four games of the 2023 season, and only creating four sacks prior to that it is safe to wonder whether Ngakoue even has suitors this offseason.

There are really no arrows pointed in the right direction for the former Jaguar who has become a mercenary of sorts in recent years. But will any team think he’s got another bullet in the chamber for 2024?

78) RB Austin Ekeler

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 year, $4 million, $4.0M APY, $3.0M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.0 million

The skinny: Ekeler tried unsuccessfully to renegotiate his previous contract last offseason after leading the NFL in total touchdowns in 2022. The Chargers held firm and Ekeler saw his performance and production decline precipitously in a lost season. His yards per carry fell from 4.5 to 3.7, rushing yards from 915 to 617, and his total touchdowns dropped from 18 to six.

His peripheral metrics also suffered. His yards after contact per carry has decreased every year since 2018, and his missed tackle forced rate dropped from 20.2% to 16.5%. Ekeler will be unable to point to anything that trended in his direction during a contract year. He missed four games due to injury and will be 29 next year. Ekeler is most likely looking at a one-year deal for less than $5 million. His best bet is to ask for performance incentives that can help him squeeze more value out of the deal.

79) QB Jameis Winston

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $4M, $4M APY, $4M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $5,367,000 to Saints, $2.5M elsewhere

If both parties agree to a new one-year deal before the start of the new league year, Winston could immediately save the Saints approximately $5 million in cap space by preventing the $7,301,000 restructured bonuses allocated to 2025-2027 from accelerating to 2023’s budget sheet.

This gives him a certain amount of leverage in negotiations against the Saints. Winston could opt to seek a starting opportunity elsewhere, but after choosing to take a pay cut to stay in New Orleans as Derek Carr’s backup in 2023, Winston might be content making decent backup money and being on-call for the Saints should Carr stumble or succumb to injury.

Click here for the full Jameis Winston breakdown

80) WR DJ Chark

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract:1 Year, $4M, $4M APY, $2M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.2M

The skinny: Although DJ Chark squeaked by his 2022 yardage total and added an extra pair of touchdowns in 2023, he further distanced himself from his breakout season in 2019 when he surpassed 1000 yards for the only time in his career, and followed it up with a lesser 706 yard season in 2020.

Although he still possesses speed that will stabilize his price floor, his value will likely see some retraction as the hope for that 2019-2020 potential is all but faded. Rather than chase the almighty dollar like he seemed to do last season, DJ would be smart to take a small pay cut and seek out a team with a solid quarterback and positional need at receiver that can help boost his value.

81) RB Zack Moss

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 years, $7.5M, $3.75M APY, $2M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.5M

The skinny: Through the first five weeks of the 2023 season Zack Moss softened the blow for Colts fans upset about the standoff between Jonathan Taylor and the organization. Over that time span, in the featured back role, Moss amassed 445 yards and three touchdowns while averaging five yards per carry. That production cratered after Taylor returned. From Week 6-on, Moss carried the ball 95 times for just 348 yards and two touchdowns.

Teams are likely to not give too much weight to a four-game sample size. Rather, most will see him as a good complementary back to a bell cow. The stout former third-round pick should be able to pick up a shorter multi-year pact.

82) G Jonah Jackson

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 year, $3.5M, $3.5M APY, 2M GTD
Year One Cap Hit $1.9 million

The skinny: The book on Jackson heading into 2023 was that he was an exceptional run blocker, earning him PFF run-block grades of 76.4 and 70.3 in 2021 and 2022, but his pass blocking left much to be desired. This past year, PFF reeled in his run blocking grade considerably, knocking him down to a score of 58.2

Jackson’s inability to shine as a pass blocker in a contract year is likely going to affect his market. As of this writing, there are only nine left guards averaging over $5 million a year. To break above this mark, Jackson would have to show he could either truly dominate as a run blocker, or inspire some potential he could cut back his pressures allowed. Jackson will likely need to price himself at a replacement level to encourage teams with starting opportunities to give him a shot, and continue honing his pass blocking skills for a later payday.

83) T Alaric Jackson

Projected Contract If Signed To Offer Sheet: 2 Year, $7M, $3.5MM APY, 2M GTD
First Year Cap Hit: $1.9M

The skinny: Alaric Jackson is a restricted free agent, which means the Rams are likely to hit him with either a Second Round Tag (projected to be $4,633,000 by Over The Cap) or the Right of First Refusal ($2,828,000). This will be a fun guessing game for Les Snead. PFF graded Jackson poorly in the run game, with a 59.5 run block rating in 2023, and his pass blocking efficiency grade of 96.3% would be considered subpar for a franchise left tackle.

However, Jackson was only 25 this past season, and if Snead believes a team could envision Jackson as a franchise tackle, he would be wise to gamble the nearly $2 million extra for the Second Round Tender, and gain a second-round pick for the former undrafted free agent if a team steals him away.

Jackson might look to Trey Pipkins’ contract from last year as a starting place for his valuation, as Trey was coming off his only starting season in his first four years in the league. Pipkins’ deal felt like an overpay by the Chargers at the time when they were desperate to make an “all-In” push, and he still had 9 less pressures on the season than Jackson did. Alaric is more likely to be priced as a near replacement-level tackle, with a dash of upside since we haven’t seen enough to cap his potential just yet.

Likely to receive the Restricted Free Agent Right of First Refusal Tag

84) LB Willie Gay Jr.

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $3.5M, $3.5M APY, $1M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.7M

Gay had a down year by his standards, posting his lowest PFF coverage grade (41.2) and allowing the highest NFL passer rating against since joining the league (101.6). His 13 total pressures won’t entice teams to open the coffers with pass-rush potential, and his 11.6% missed tackle percentage is an improvement over his career-mark of 13.7%, but is still near replacement level.

He showed plenty of promise in his first three years to tempt a team to offer him a decent one-year deal, similar to what Drue Tranqull earned with the Chiefs last year. A stronger performance in 2024 will have us far more optimistic about his market next offseason.

Click here for the full Willie Gay Jr. breakdown

85) EDGE Marcus Davenport

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 year, $3.5M, $3.5M APY, $2.75M GTD
Year One Cap Hit $1.9 million

The skinny: Davenport parlayed a first-round draft status into a one-year $13 million deal with the Vikings that his production really didn’t earn. Then he suffered a high ankle sprain after playing just four games. The injury was serious enough that he underwent surgery, went on IR and never returned.

2023 would be the least amount of football Davenport played since entering the league. Davenport has just 2.5 sacks in the last two years combined. Some team will look at Davenport’s 2021 when he recorded nine sacks and a pressure rate of 14.1% and see potential value on an a low guarantee, high-incentive contract and lock Davenport in.

86) S Micah Hyde

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 years, $3.25M, $3.25M APY, $3.25M GTD
Year One Cap Hit $3.25 million

Hyde’s abilities in coverage have been eroding over the past few seasons, as evidenced by his yards per coverage snap increasing from 0.16 in 2020 to 0.35 in 2021, to 0.62 this past year. But he still managed to defend seven passes and pick off two more as the Bills defense experienced a late-season resurgence.

For any team looking for a veteran presence who can help mentor a room, you would be hard-pressed to find a better option than Hyde. There are physical limitations, but he can be counted on to be where he is supposed to be on most reps.

Click here for the full Micah Hyde breakdown

87) CB Akhello Witherspoon

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 years, $6.5M, $3.25M APY, $2.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit $2.0 million

The skinny: A journeyman backup, Witherspoon stepped into a starting role for the Rams in 2023 and impressed with 14 passes defensed and three interceptions. Witherspoon will be 29 when the 2024 season starts so he will likely be looking for more than a one-year pact.

While Witherspoon was targeted almost 100 times in 2023, he held opposing receivers to a catch rate below 50% while breaking up 10 passes. Witherspoon may be looked at as a cheap option for a CB2 role for a team that tries to run with a room-building motto of “if you can’t tie a knot, tie a lot.”

88) LB Anthony Walker Jr.

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $3.25M, $3.25M APY, $1M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.45M

The skinny: When healthy, Anthony Walker Jr. has been a stellar linebacker and leader for the Cleveland Browns. He originally joined the Browns on a one-year, $3 million contract after three consecutive seasons of playing at least 695 snaps. He managed to play 13 games in that first year, and showed enough promise to earn another one-year contract at $4.25 million. However, after tearing his quadriceps in Week 3 of the 2022 season, he had to take a near veteran-minimum deal to stay with the Browns in 2023.

Walker’s play hasn’t declined, but he still is struggling to stay healthy, once again ending the season on the injured reserve. Once he clears a physical for his arthroscopic knee surgery, his leadership and play will inspire a team, perhaps the Browns again, to award another one-year deal with a little extra meat on the bone after showing his quadricep tear is behind him.

89) RB A.J. Dillon

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $3M, $3M APY, $2M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $1.8M

The skinny: When AJ Dillon broke out in 2021, Green Bay appeared to have as menacing of a two-headed rushing attack as the Browns’ duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Dillon and Aaron Jones had excellent years in 2021 and 2022, but the wheels came off the bus for the big bruiser Dillon last season. In limited usage in his rookie year, AJ averaged 5.3 yards per carry, and leveled out his average to 4.3 and 4.2 yards per carry in 2021 and 2022 when he received over 175 carries each season. That average dropped to 3.4 in 2023, and his yards after first contact average dropped from 3.18 in 2021 to 2.69 in 2023.

Dillon is a respectable talent, but the grim reality of the nonexistent market for Tier 2 or 3 running backs basically wipes his immediate earning potential. AJ is young enough to not risk getting suckered into a low-number, two-year deal before turning 26; recognizing his limited market in 2024 and accepting a slight discount to play for the right organization could give Dillion a chance to shine once again and set himself up for a more lucrative offseason in 2025.

90) T Cornelius Lucas

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $3M, $3M APY, $1M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.2M

The skinny: Before signing a two-year extension in 2022 to stay with the Washington Commanders, Cornelius Lucas looked like a tackle deserving of a chance at a starting role. He had filled in admirably as a swing tackle for both the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders, equally capable on both sides of the line, so it was assumed he would chase a starting gig in free agency. Instead, he ended up staying put and pocketing $7.11M as a swing for the Commanders from 2022-2023.

Lucas’ value likely hasn’t changed significantly; although he was an exceptional swing, starting in 16 games over the course of the extension, his play regressed slightly. In 2022, he allowed 34 pressures, 9 more than his previous highest for a season. His 94.4% pass blocking efficiency was well below replacement, although it bounced back to 96.2% in 2023. The hope of him catching on as a bonafide starter in the league is likely gone, but he’s still one of the best swing tackles available.

91) EDGE Carl Lawson

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 year, $3M, $3M APY, $1M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $1.8 Million

The skinny: Lawson has always been a highly talented player who has struggled with injuries throughout his entire career. In his six-year career, he has only played an entire season twice (and one of those was his rookie year when he wasn’t a full-time starter). Because of that, it feels light to find out he only has 27.0 career sacks.

The Jets hoped they could get a healthy Lawson when they signed him to a three-year, $45 million contract in 2021, but he never played a down in his first year with the team after suffering an Achilles tear before the season. After having a solid bounce back season in 2022, he only played 101 snaps in 2023, as he once again battled injuries - as well as a crowded Jets defensive line depth chart. He will look to bounce back on a one-year flier, likely heavily ladened with incentives.

92) S Jayron Kearse

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 years, $6M, $3.0M APY, $2M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.0 Million

The skinny: Kearse is coming off of perhaps the worst year of his career. Allowing 34 catches on 41 targets, it was the highest catch rate allowed in any season. Combine that with his first year with a missed tackle rate north of 10% and it paints a picture of a player who may be past his peak.

Still, Kearse is a veteran with plenty of good years to draw upon and that has a place on an NFL team. The key will be convincing teams he can get back to the stout run defense that was the bedrock of his play for much of his career. His best path forward would be to sign a deal similar to the one Damontae Kazee signed with Pittsburgh last year.

93) G Greg Van Roten

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $3M, $3M APY, $1M GTD
Year One Cap Hit $2.2M

The skinny: The last time Greg Van Roten played over 1000 snaps was in 2018 for the Carolina Panthers. Since then, he’s been a journeyman guard that’s struggled to find health and consistency in his career. The stars aligned for Greg despite the chaotic year for the Raiders; they rolled the dice on starting a 33 year-old guard making a smidge over the veteran minimum, and he managed to stay healthy while posting a respectable 97.8% pass efficiency rating.

Greg won’t get the same bump Andre James will get for being a member of the Raiders’ 2022 rushing attack, but he should still get a respectable bump from his 2023 pay, as he showed he can play at an above-average level when healthy, and limit interior pressure.

94) S Jeremy Chinn

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $3M, $3M APY, $2M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $1.8M

Coming off of a 2023 season where he only played 12 games, Chinn’s play ended on a high note, but was up and down for much of the season. He was targeted 17 times in the season and allowed an 82% catch rate, along with two touchdowns.

Still, Chinn is a big, athletic chess piece who has immense potential. He is at his best playing in the box as a hybrid safety-linebacker who can match up against some of the best tight ends in the game. With some improved health and solid play, he could be in-line for a multi-year deal in 2025.

Click here for the full Jeremy Chinn breakdown

95) DL Shelby Harris

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 year, $3M, $3M APY, $1.75M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $3.0M

The skinny: Harris was a solid rotational piece, averaging 26 snaps per game for an elite Browns defense in 2023. While he only recorded 1.5 sacks, he added 28 pressures while recording a pass rush win rate of over 11%.

He will be 34 when the 2024 season starts and is likely no longer a starter, but he can still contribute quality snaps in short bursts. And Harris isn’t just a pass rush specialist who can only check in on long and late downs: He’s a quality run defender who can sub in for an entire series.

Harris has reduced his snap count two years in a row, so it is reasonable to see this as a trend and his next contract will likely reflect that.

96) LB Jordan Hicks

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $3M, $3M APY, $1M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.2M

The skinny: Jordan Hicks has been a solid addition to the Vikings linebacker room, excelling as run defender with a sub-10% miss tackle percentage, and doing a yeoman’s job in coverage. There is very limited pass rush upside to Hicks’ game, but at this point in his career he’s a low-risk signing for a team that wants to add a reliable veteran at a discount, given the deflated market of second and third tier linebackers.

97) WR Jauan Jennings

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $2.828M, $2.828M APY, $2.828M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.828

Jennings is a restricted free agent this offseason. He is a perfect rotational receiver for Shanahan’s offense, and will likely receive a “right of first refusal” tender from San Francisco, projected to be valued at $2.828 million according to Over The Cap.

It’s hard to imagine a team snagging Jennings for much more than that when there are consistently a plethora of options in the $1.5 million to $3 million range available that won’t be subject to the team’s ability to match the offer and retain the player, so outside teams would have to be extremely confident in their evaluation to pay more for Jennings’ services than Shanahan would be willing to match. Jennings will most likely play on the tender this year while working towards a longer extension.

High likelihood of Right of First Refusal RFA Tag

Click here for the full Jauan Jennings breakdown

98) RB D'Onta Foreman

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 year, $2.75 million, $2.75M APY, $2.0M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.75 million

The skinny: Foreman signed up for a crowded backfield in Chicago, playing second fiddle in a four-headed attack (including quarterback Justin FIelds). Foreman trailed both Khalil Herbert and rookie Roschon Johnson in yards per carry (3.9) but his missed tackle forced rate (19.2%) and yards after contact per attempt (2.75) fared better.

But Foreman’s volume production was the lowest in three years. He will likely look for a better opportunity for snap share on a small, one-year deal.

99) EDGE Dawuane Smoot

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $2.75M, $2.75M APY, $1.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $1.5M

The skinny: Smoot’s play fell off considerably in 2023 and there is a real chance that he goes unsigned. Playing in just 12 games and recording just one sack and 14 pressures, his production was incomparable to anything above a vet-minimum deal. Once a solid rotational rusher who logged 50 pressures in 2021, he will most likely need to wait until late summer to try and catch on with a team as a player stashed on the practice squad as a veteran presence.

Smoot would qualify for a four-year player contract if Jacksonville wanted to keep him around while getting a CBA-sanctioned salary cap discount on him.

100) G Dalton Risner

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 year, $2.5M, $2.5M APY, $1M GTD
Year One Cap Hit $1.7M

The skinny: Dalton Risner was assumed to be one of the more coveted guards last season, but the market spoke and Risner didn’t receive his desired payday. He ventured to Minnesota on a one-year prove-it deal for $3 million. While in Minnesota, his pass blocking efficiency rating dropped to 96.7%, his career low, and PFF’s run blocking grade of 50.0 was also a career-low.

Although Risner ended his 2022 campaign on the IR, it’s hard to imagine Risner getting a raise when coming off the arguably worst professional season of career.

101) Adoreé Jackson

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 year, $2.5M, $2.5M APY, $1M GTD
Year One Cap Hit $1.7M

The skinny: Jackson is coming off of perhaps the worst season of his career, allowing 1.67 yards per coverage snap and almost 14 yards per reception while missing over 15% of his tackle attempts.

98) Jackson played up to the $13M APY contract he signed with the Giants in 2021 for the first two years of the pact, but with 2023 being his platform year, he will likely be relegated to a one-year “prove it” deal with hopes that he can win a starting job in a likely camp competition. Still only 28-years-old, if he can bounce back in 2024, he has an opportunity to get another multi-year deal before he turns 30.

102) RB Antonio Gibson

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $2.5 APY, 500k GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.5M

The skinny: Antonio Gibson broke onto the NFL scene in a big way his first two seasons, but lack of ball security seemed to nudge Ron Rivera towards drafting Brian Robinson in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. When Robinson missed the first four games of 2022, Gibson was the uncontested starter in the backfield, but averaged a measly 3.26 yards per attempt and never reached at least 60 yards in any of those games.

Gibson does some of his best work as a threat out of the backfield, and teams love that skillset in a change-of-pace back. However, veterans like Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert have signed for deals of $3 million or less per year after showing more promise as every-down backs, so expect Gibson to land a smaller, one-year deal as he tries to rebuild his value with a new team.

103) CB Antonio Hamilton

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $2.25M, $2.25M APY, $1M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.25M

The skinny: Hamilton’s efficiency over the past three seasons has been very solid, allowing just one yard per coverage snap over that timeframe and improving that metric to 0.86 in 2023. But Hamilton has several factors working against him.

He is over 30, lacks ball skills (just two interceptions and 20 passes defensed over the past three years), and has not played regularly as a starter (just nine starts in 2023). He can provide a good veteran depth presence in most cornerback rooms across the league.

104) CB Arthur Maulet

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $2M, $2M APY, 500k GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $1.6M

The skinny: Cornerbacks don’t typically sign their highest-paying deals when they’ve crossed the 30-years-old barrier, but Maulet might be a rare exception. He has been a career rotational player, hovering around 350-450 snaps most of his career.

While most years his play has been fairly pedestrian, he played the best football of his career in 2023 for the Baltimore Ravens. Although teams will attribute much of the success to the stellar defense supporting him, Maulet showed he could be a capable plug-and-play vet for a very affordable salary.

105) WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Franchise Tag Likelihood: None
Projected Contract: 1 Year, $1.5M, 1.5M APY, $250k GTD
Year One Cap Hit: 1.3M

The skinny: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had a fairly steady, yet unspectacular, first four seasons in the league after signing with the Titans as an undrafted free agent. He actually had the choice to negotiate a new contract last year since the Titans didn’t tag him with the $2.627 million “right-of-refusal” tender. The gamble paid off, as Westbrook-Ikhine ended up re-signing with the Titans at nearly half the cost: $1.26 million.

Westbrook-Ikhine posted his lowest yardage total since establishing a role for himself on the team in 2021. His drop percentage was slightly higher than the previous two years, as well. Nick didn’t regress in 2023, but he didn’t take a step forward, so it’s hard to picture the market suddenly giving him a significant raise.