Three Overreactions From Packers’ Victory Over Colts

Playing with one hand tied behind their back, the Green Bay Packers beat the Indianapolis Colts 16-10 on Sunday. It might not have been a season-saving victory in the absence of Jordan Love, but history would not have been on the side of an 0-2 team.

With Malik Willis having the best game of his career, Matt LaFleur conjuring a Lombardi-era game plan and the defense making Anthony Richardson look like just another all-tools, no-accuracy quarterback, here are three overreactions from Green Bay’s huge win.

1. This Is Not Sustainable

The Packers’ formula to beat the Colts is not sustainable.

You know how we know that?

Because it was barely sustainable against the Colts.

The bottom-line numbers were tremendous. With LaFleur sticking to his game plan, the Packers amassed 261 rushing yards on 53 carries. That’s a 4.9-yard average. Josh Jacobs had one of the best days of his career with 32 carries for 151 yards.

However, here are the rushing numbers, broken down by quarters:

First quarter: Jacobs, 10 carries for 81 yards (8.1 average). Team, 20 carries for 164 yards (8.2 average).

Second quarter: Jacobs, 10 carries for 47 yards (4.7 average). Team, 14 carries for 73 yards (5.2 average).

Third quarter: Jacobs: Four carries for 1 yard (0.3 average). Team: Five carries for minus-7 yards (minus-1.4 average).

Fourth quarter: Jacobs: Eight carries for 22 yards (2.8 average). Team: 14 carries for 31 yards (2.2 average).

Who knows why the Colts were so ill-prepared for the Packers’ running game. A bunch of eye-candy misdirection runs got the ball-carriers into open space. That space evaporated as the game wore on.

Without Love, everyone in Lambeau Field knew the Packers were going to run the football. The Colts only stacked the box on 23.4 percent of Green Bay’s non-Willis runs, so it wasn’t as if the Packers were consistently outnumbered at the point of attack. There just wasn’t much room to maneuver after the first half.

A run defined as a “success” keeps the offense on schedule, such as a first-and-10 run that gains 4 yards. Of 32 players with at least 10 carries in Week 2, Jacobs ranks 18th in success rate at 50.0 percent. However, he was 3-of-12 (25.0 percent) in the second half.

With the Packers gaining only five first downs in five second-half possessions, the Colts might have won the game had Colts coach Shane Steichen featured Jonathan Taylor more often or had Richardson been able to hit the broad side of a barn.