Todd Bowles And His'Eureka!' Moment

But beyond vacating that portion of the field with consistent fire zone blitzes, the Bucs also had personnel issues pop up due to a pile up of injuries in the back seven.

Bowles and general manager Jason Licht have tried to address the talent deficit issues in the offseason. To aid the pass rush they signed edge rusher Haason Reddick and drafted David Walker and Elijah Roberts. Bowles and the Bucs are excited for the return of a healthy SirVocea Dennis at inside linebacker and backstopped him with Anthony Walker Jr. And in the secondary they added veteran Kindle Vildor and drafted talented cornerbacks Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish.

But talent can only take you so far. The correct deployment of that talent is also crucial to success.

Look no further than the changes the Eagles made last year and the effect it had on their defense. They went from 29th in defense to 2nd overall, as measured by EPA/play in just a single season. Part of that was a change in defensive coordinators and philosophies. Vic Fangio brought his low-blitz, two-high structure to Philadelphia and things clicked.

The Todd Bowles Tenets

This brings us back to Todd Bowles and what he may be alluding to with his “Eureka!” moment. In order to find what Bowles may become; we should first define who he has been.

Structurally, the Bucs use an over front defense pushing the 3-technique defensive tackle to the tight end side of the formation while keeping their nose as a 1-tech to the opposite side. When the Bucs are in base personnel with a five-man surface, they still run an odd front and rarely two-gap. While nose tackle Vita Vea is versatile and can two-gap, Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall lack the anchors to operate similarly as base defensive ends.

We’ve already established that Bowles has been a blitz merchant. Even going back to his 2020 days when he had peak Shaq Barrett and a still-effective Jason Pierre-Paul as bookend pass rushers in a four-man front, he still sent five or more pass rushers third most in the NFL. It’s a part of his DNA and is the basis for how he has made his bones stylistically throughout his career. Stylistically, Bowles prefers five-man pressures, leading the league in that specific type of rush last year.

On the back end, Bowles, like most of the NFL, employs a Cover 3-heavy brand of football. But he takes it to another level. Only three teams ran Cover 3 at a higher rate than the 45% the Bucs did. Tampa Bay didn’t rank in the top half of the league in any other coverage.

Possible Changes To Bucs Defense In 2025

In the macro, changes relate to one of the three major tenets – front structure, blitz type or rate, or coverage philosophy/mix.

Front Structure – Unlikely To Change

As mentioned above, I don’t think this is likely to be a significant departure from last year. Calijah Kancey is at his best as a gap-penetrator in an odd-front. Logan Hall is similarly suited. The Bucs personnel, even with the additions they made in the offseason point to a continuity in their odd-man front. It’s unlikely they move to an under front. They used under fronts more in 2022 but moved away from it in the last two years. Vita Vea and Yaya Diaby are both strong run defenders so the Bucs will likely rely on them to work the weak side of fronts as they continue to rely on over fronts to give additional help against strong side runs.

But small wrinkles can be added. The Bucs have used double-mugged looks extensively under Todd Bowles. But back in 2021 they experimented with some exotic looks utilizing three edge rushers. Last year on long and late downs, Bowles would use inverted fronts sparingly with Vea and Kancey lined up over tackles and standing up their edge rushers inside.

In early looks of mandatory mini-camp, it looks like Todd Bowles may be leaning more into some of those exotic fronts. David Walker and Diaby are both capable of rushing inside and Kancey has shown some real outside pass rush prowess. This can lead to fronts where Reddick is isolated to a single side with three or even four-man overloads on the opposite side to created isolated looks for Reddick while stressing offensive line blocking rules.

Blitz Rate – Likely To Change In Specific Situations

The top six teams in blitz rates last year were the Vikings, Lions, Bucs, Broncos, Chiefs and Commanders. That’s good company to keep! The Vikings and Broncos let up on their pressure packages on third down and the Commanders kept their blitz rate steady on the money down. But no team in that group increased their blitz rate on third down more than the Bucs. Those blitzes helped the team record plenty of tackles for loss and helped them attack boot action.

The early-down blitzing is a common thread among some of the most innovative defenses in the NFL and a key to how Todd Bowles likes to stop the run on early downs. But if the personnel changes work – i.e. Haason Reddick leads a pass rush that can get home rushing four more often – then the Bucs can keep more assets in coverage on third down to help their 22nd ranked success rate improve.

Coverage Changes

Todd Bowles and the Bucs have publicly spoken about their desire to utilize more man coverage. I am assuming this isn’t the big “Eureka!” reveal. If it is, that would be both disappointing and reductive.

An increase in Cover 0 and Cover 1 should be more an expectation than a revelation for the Bucs. But it should go beyond just more man coverage. Even increasing the match principles of some of the zone systems he runs as well as just increase the variance in coverages can help lend an heir of variance and unpredictability to the defense. Their game plan against Detroit last year provides a good blueprint for how they can evolve and improve this year.

Now let’s not get too ahead of reality. The Bucs will continue to be a Cover 3 team. The whole league is. Only seven teams in the NFL did not use Cover 3 as their primary coverage of choice last year.

But consider the strengths of their personnel. Cornerbacks Zyon McCollum and Jamel Dean are strong, physical tacklers who control perimeter run and screen games well. Finding ways to mix coverages that give them more opportunities to play the flats can work to those strengths.

Safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith are playmakers who are most effective near the ball. Given how often Tampa Bay was attacked in the middle of the field, finding ways to get them into the middle more can help get them around the ball more. Enter inverted/disguised Cover 2.

And to add more matching principles to the Bucs defense, Bowles could lean into more of a Match-3 style like Rip/Liz or play more variations of Quarters or Cover 6. These require matching early in the route progression to keep everyone where they are supposed to be as the play unfolds. This wouldn’t be new for the team. It would just be an expansion of things they have already done.

Bowles is unlikely to come right out and say, “Here is how I am changing what I am doing to beat modern NFL offenses.”

It would make my job a whole lot easier, though.

But I wouldn’t be surprised if those changes weren’t tied to one or more of these adjustments.