Week 1 NFL mismatches: Where Ravens, Browns, Texans have major edge

The Ravens’ combination of top-end secondary talent and elite pass-rushing production makes them a monstrous defense. Last season, Baltimore had the league’s second-lowest passer rating (80.6) and ranked sixth in quarterback hits (104).

Given the woes that Miami is set to deal with in all facets of the passing game — up front, at quarterback, and out wide — Baltimore’s secondary is set to make a lot of noise in Week 1.

Cleveland pass rush vs. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota

Mariota had a disappointing 2018 season, but he especially struggled against strong pass-rushing defenses. Mariota played four games last season against teams that ranked in the top half of sack rate on defense: the Redskins (fif^th in sack rate), Jaguars (13^th), Ravens (14^th) and Bills (15^th).

In those four contests, Mariota was unproductive, averaging a minuscule 114 passing yards per game and failing to register a passing or rushing touchdown. Mariota picked up only 23 passing first downs and was sacked 12 times, a brutal ratio of 1.9 to 1. In 2018, the league average ratio of passing first downs to sacks was about 4.9 to 1. 

As a result of Mariota’s struggles, the Titans offense averaged only 10 points in those four games against top sack-producing defenses. Although the Browns ranked just 28^th in sack rate last season, they are poised to take a major leap into the upper echelons of sack rankings.

Former No. 1 selection Myles Garrett ranked sixth in the NFL with 13.5 sacks last season, but now he has company. In the offseason, the Browns added pass-rushing beasts Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson.

Over the past six seasons, Vernon has 47.5 sacks, the 19^th-best total in the league over that span. While that is a solid ranking, Vernon is more impressive at generating pressure than he is at getting home for sacks. Over the same span, he ranks 10^th in quarterback hits, with 121.

That’s not to say Vernon, who played for the Giants last season, can’t make plays of his own — he has made plenty of game-changing plays in his career. On the following play, Vernon stripped the ball from Bears quarterback Chase Daniel in a brilliant display of his elite technique as a pass rusher. Vernon (right defensive end) swipes away the hands of left tackle Charles Leno, rips underneath with his inside arm, then turns the corner and punches out the football as Daniel winds up.

Richardson, who played for the Vikings last season,  is a terrific run defender, but he can get some heat on quarterback too. In 2018, he ranked 14^th among interior defensive linemen with 47 total pressures.

Even if neither is putting up gigantic sack numbers, the pressure created by Vernon and Richardson will open up plenty of sack opportunities for other Cleveland defenders.  Garrett, Vernon and Richardson have the potential to be one of the best defensive trios in the league. In Week 1, they get a highly favorable matchup against a quarterback who has struggled mightily under pressure.

Houston WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. New Orleans secondary

Hopkins has emerged as arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL. Year after year, he has put up monster numbers regardless of who was at quarterback. But he needed a star under center to truly get him over the hump — and now he has one in Deshaun Watson.

Last season, Hopkins ranked fifth in receiving touchdowns (15), third in receptions (115) and second in receiving yards (1,572). He did all that while posting a superb catch rate of 70.6 percent, joining Antonio Brown and Wes Welker as the only players in league history to have a season with over 1,500 receiving yards and a catch rate over 70 percent.

Hopkins’ strong hands are the reason for his dominant play — he had zero drops last season. He set a record for the most receptions in a season without a drop, according to Pro Football Focus, which has kept track of that stat since 2006.

Any team that dares to cover Hopkins with only one defender pays the price. Here, he bullies Colts reserve cornerback Chris Milton off the line, creating plenty of room to easily haul in the touchdown from Watson on a goal-line fade.

New Orleans, a team with Super Bowl aspirations, may have a weak pass defense. The Saints fielded the league’s 11^th-ranked defense, according to Defense-adjusted Value Over Average last season, but that was on the strength of their run defense, which ranked third in DVOA. On the other side of the ball, New Orleans struggled, ranking 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. (DVOA calculates a team's success based on the down and distance of each play during a season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.)

Struggles at cornerback were part of the issue. In 2018, of the 80 cornerbacks to log at least 350 cover snaps, three of the players ranked in the bottom 15 of most yards allowed per cover snap were Saints: P.J. Williams (T-76^th), Eli Apple (T-76^th) and Marshon Lattimore (68^th).

New Orleans allowed a 100.6 passer rating last season, the sixth-worst mark in the league and the worst among playoff teams.

Iffy pass defenses were feasted upon by Hopkins last season. Each of his best three games for receiving yardage came against teams that allowed a passer rating above the league average of 92.9. In total, Hopkins averaged 125.6 yards per game in five matchups against teams that allowed an above-average passer rating; the Texans went 5-0 in those games. In his other 11 contests, Hopkins averaged 85.8 yards per game, and Houston posted a 6-5 record.

Hopkins' touchdown production also spiked against lesser pass defenses. He recorded six touchdown receptions in five games against teams that allowed an above-average passer rating (1.2 per game), and only five touchdowns in his other 11 games (0.5 per game).

Expect to see Hopkins put up big numbers in his 2019 season debut, giving Houston the juice it will need to pull off an upset in the "Monday Night Football" spotlight.