Yardbarker's NFL Week 1 picks, game previews

TV: NBC        Line: Chicago -3

What you need to know: Packers coach  Matt LaFleur specializes in scheming his receivers open, something former coach Mike McCarthy refused to do. Aaron Rodgers, fully healthy again after a banged-up year, should be back to his normal self. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky had a decent 2018 (24 touchdowns against 12 interceptions), but Pro Football Focus was not kind to him, grading his season at a mediocre 63.6 overall. His development is pivotal to the Bears’ chances of repeating as NFC North champions.

On the spot:  Packers RT Bryan Bulaga . He registered his fourth-worst pass blocking grade, per PFF, in last season’s opener against the Bears. He’ll presumably have the task of trying to stop Khalil Mack on most downs, and if he can’t, Green Bay is in trouble.

Bears safety Eddie Jackson: Assuming Rodgers is in typical form, he’ll be taking lots of shots downfield. Jackson will need to repeat his performance of last year as a ball-hawk and touchdown machine (2 picks, 1 fumble returned for TD in '18) to make Rodgers think twice.

The pick: Packers 31 Bears 26

TV: CBS          Line: Cleveland -5.

What you need to know:  The Titans have lost three straight season openers, and Cleveland hasn’t won its opener since a 20-3 win over Baltimore in 2004. Tennessee won’t have left tackle Taylor Lewan, suspended for four games for testing positive for a banned substance. That could be a major issue with Myles Garrett on the edge for Cleveland. The Browns’ run defense was 28 ^th in the NFL in 2018, and Derrick Henry says he’s feeling good and fully recovered from a calf injury. Henry ran for 1,059 yards on just 215 carries last season, a 4.9 yards-per-carry average.

On the spot : Titans WR Adam Humphries . He got $19 million guaranteed in a four-year, $36 million deal with Tennessee, and the Titans will need him to be a consistent safety valve and slot producer to take the heat off QB Marcus Mariota.

WR Odell Beckham Jr. He was the biggest acquisition of the off-season, and observers in Cleveland and around the NFL will be waiting with bated breath to see if he and Baker Mayfield can turn into the league’s next great quarterback-wide receiver combo.

The pick: Browns 27 Titans 20

TV: CBS          Line: Baltimore -7

What you need to know:  The Dolphins aren’t really trying to win. They traded LT Laremy Tunsil and WR Kenny Stills to the Texans for two first-rounders and a second rounder, and that means that Ryan Fitzpatrick is in big trouble. The Ravens had the NFL’s second-ranked scoring defense last year, but C.J. Mosley, Terrell Suggs, Eric Weddle, Za’Darius Smith and Brent Urban are gone. Earl Thomas replaces Weddle, and should be an upgrade at the position. Fitzpatrick is 4-2 as a Week 1 starter in his career, with 16 touchdowns against only five interceptions in those games. 

On the spot: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson . Everyone will be watching to see how Jackson fares in the Ravens’ new-look offense. He should be able to run all over a Miami run defense that was second-worst in the NFL in 2018.

Dolphins tackle Jesse Davis:  Davis might end up replacing Tunsil despite working out all summer at right tackle. When asked by a reporter about his comfort level with a potential switch, he said, “Why don’t you go from writing with your right hand to writing with your left hand and see how great it looks?”

The pick: Ravens 34 Dolphins 13

TV: FOX        Line: Minnesota -4

What you need to know: Vikings RB  Dalvin Cook is healthy after a knee injury in his rookie season and a hamstring problem that plagued him last year. Pro Football Focus’ Steve Palazzolo had high praise for him earlier this preseason. Despite Atlanta’s 7-9 record last year, Matt Ryan threw for 35 touchdowns against only seven interceptions, and his 108.1 passer rating was the second-highest mark of his career. Minnesota's Kirk Cousins was one of the best quarterbacks in the league when pressured in 2018 but one of the worst without pressure, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings. (DVOA is a stat from Football Outsiders that adjusts production for factors such as score, time, down and distance, in order to capture the true value of each play.)

On the spot:  Falcons center Alex Mack.  The noise in Minnesota is always a factor, and while Ryan must shoulder the burden of dealing with it, Mack’s ability to properly communicate protections to his linemates will be of equal importance.

Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes: He has had success against Falcons WR Julio Jones, particularly when he shut him down in 2017. Minnesota has historically had success against the all-world wide receiver, and if that trend continues, it will be because of Rhodes.

The pick: Vikings 34 Falcons 31

TV: CBS        Line: New York -3

What you need to know:  The Jets have Adam Gase running the show, and things got off to a bumpy start, with Gase clearly not being a fan of the Le’Veon Bell signing. The cutting of linebacker Jachai Polite, a third-round pick, didn't help. Buffalo overahauled its roster in the offseason, culminating in the release of LeSean McCoy, and despite its 6-10 record, returns a defense that was second in the league in yards allowed in 2018. The Bills’ challenge will be fixing an offense that was 30 ^th in scoring and yards last year.

On the spot:  Bills RB Devin Singletary. Cutting McCoy was a surprise to many in the league, but Buffalo likely wouldn’t have done it had it not been high on Singletary, a rookie from Florida Atlantic who opened eyes during the preseason.

Jets RB Le’Veon Bell:  No surprise here. Bell was the less expensive but splashier of the Jets’ two major off-season moves. If he’s as advertised, Sam Darnold’s life will be much easier.

The pick: Jets 24 Bills 20

TV: FOX        Line: Philadelphia -9.5

What you need to know:  Case Keenum gets the nod over Dwayne Haskins at quarterback for Washington. He passed for a career-high 3,890 yards last season, but he threw for only 18 touchdowns for Denver. Washington's Adrian Peterson can move into fifth place in career rushing touchdowns with a score in this game. Peterson’s 13,318 career rush yards are eighth in NFL history. The Eagles' Alshon Jeffery is one of only five players with at least 750 receiving yards in each of the past six seasons. Jordan Howard is expected to make a big splash with the Eagles, and the stats suggest that he should, as he racked up 3,370 yards and 24 touchdowns in three seasons with Chicago.

On the spot : Redskins LB Ryan Kerrigan. Philly QB Carson Wentz can hurt teams in a variety of ways, and the only surefire way to slow him is to pressure him. Kerrigan’s 13 sacks led Washington last season, and they’ll need him to be a force.

Eagles safety S Malcolm Jenkins . Philly’s pass defense was the league’s third worst in 2018, and Keenum should be a better test of it than Josh Johnson was the last time these teams met. Tight end Jordan Reed will test the Eagles’ secondary, and Jenkins will be tasked with stopping him.

The pick: Eagles 34 Redskins 20

TV: FOX        Line: Los Angeles -2.5

What you need to know:  Jared Goff is a very rich man, having just signed a four-year, $134 million extension, with an NFL-record $110 million guaranteed. He was mostly great last season, but perhaps exposed in the Super Bowl by a Patriots defense that pressured him nonstop. Knee issues of Rams running back Todd Gurley were a big offseason talking point, so his workload will be a season-long story. Carolina’s goal is simple; keep Cam Newton upright and on the field for all 16 games. So long as it does that, the talent is there to make a push in the rugged NFC South.

On the spot:  Rams LB Cory Littleton. His job probably won’t be easy Sunday. He must try to hem in RB Christian McCaffrey while also possibly playing a bit of a “spy” role against Newton. Oh, and he must get the Rams’ defense lined up. No pressure.

Panthers center Matt Paradis:  New center Paradis must call the protections and deal with Aaron Donald. Neither one of those tasks seems fun, but if he fails miserably at either one of them, he might get his quarterback maimed.

The pick: Rams 30 Panthers 24

TV: CBS        Line: Kansas City -3.5

What you need to know:  This game should be a great battle between Kansas City’s offense and Jacksonville’s defense. The Chiefs led the league in scoring last season, and the Jaguars were fourth in the league in points allowed despite a 5-11 record. Jacksonville should get a boost on offense from QB Nick Foles, and the Chiefs’ acquisition of LeSean McCoy from Buffalo reunites the running back with Andy Reid. He gives Kansas City another dynamic weapon. McCoy’s 10,606 rush yards since 2009 are the most in the league during that time. Holding serve at home might announce the Jaguars as the early favorite in the AFC South.

On the spot:  Chiefs RB Damien Williams. With all the talk about McCoy, Williams has been shoved aside for the time being, but he averaged 5.1 yards per carry last season, has at least a touchdown in six straight games including the playoffs, and might be K.C.’s most explosive runner.

Jaguars CB Jalen Ramsey:  Tyreek Hill is still on the Chiefs, and as a result, someone on Jacksonville must slow him. While the Jags also have A.J. Bouye, Ramsey may see the bulk of the time opposite Hill.

The pick: Jaguars 31 Chiefs 27

TV: CBS        Line: Los Angeles -6.5

What you need to know:  Life without Andrew Luck begins for the Colts, who just gave his replacement, Jacoby Brissett, a new contract. Brian Hoyer was signed to be his backup. He has that Patriots pedigree, and the Colts are hoping that some of it rubs off on Brissett and perhaps Chad Kelly. Indy has a roster that stacks up well with L.A. talent-wise, but the Colts don’t have a passer who can match Philip Rivers. For Rivers’ part, we’ll get to see whether or not his statements about liking his non-Melvin Gordon running backs a great deal will be put to the test.

On the spot:  Colts QB Jacoby Brissett. Everyone will be watching him, and while his first time under the microscope didn’t go all that well, the Colts love Brissett and seem to think they can make the playoffs with him. Much of the public tends to disagree. A road win here would be a major coup for Brissett.

Chargers RB Austin Ekeler.  No one knows if or when Gordon will return, so Ekeler should get the bulk of the work in his absence. If he’s half as good as Rivers seems to think he is, the Chargers are in good hands indeed.

The pick: Chargers 27 Colts 17

TV: CBS        Line: Seattle -9.5

What you need to know:  The Seahawks just became a trendy NFC Super Bowl pick with the addition of Jadeveon Clowney. Seattle fans are likely thrilled because of how little it cost to bring Clowney into the fold. There are no such feelings of optimism in Cincinnati, where Zac Taylor must work miracles with Andy Dalton and make the Bengals a team worth watching. Dalton is 2-0 versus Seattle, including a 2015 performance that saw him throw for 331 yards and two touchdowns in a Bengals win. Cincy’s rush defense, ranked last season, might have issues with Chris Carson, who ran for 1,151 yards last year.

On the spot:  Bengals RB Joe Mixon.  He led the AFC in rushing last season with 1,168 yards. He’ll need to have a big game to keep the Seahawks’ defense from teeing off on Dalton early and often.

Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett.  Is he Russell Wilson’s next featured target? He set career-highs in receptions (57), yards (965) and receiving touchdowns (10) last season. Continued development from him could make Seattle truly formidable.

The pick: Seahawks 28 Bengals 17

TV: FOX        Line: Dallas -7

What you need to know:  Running back Ezekiel Elliott agreed to a six-year contract extension Wednesday morning, ending his holdout, but it's unknown how much playing time he'll get Sunday. Tight end Jason Witten is back after a very uninspiring year in the broadcast booth, and if he has anything left, he should be a boost for Dak Prescott. New York's Saquon Barkley led the league in scrimmage yards last season, but if he’s all the offense the Giants have, they won’t have a winning formula.

On the spot:  Giants QB Eli Manning.  He no doubt has already heard the whispers that Daniel Jones should be the starter. If he doesn’t get the team off to a fast start, he might find himself sitting on the sidelines, watching Jones run the show.

Cowboys RB Tony Pollard.  He was impressive in the preseason -- in fact, his impact was such that the Cowboys were willing to play hardball with Elliott for longer than most thought they would. He could get the lion’s share of the work Sunday.

The pick: Cowboys 23 Giants 20

TV: FOX        Line: Detroit -3

What you need to know:  Detroit’s overhauled defense gets its first action, and Trey Flowers will receive most of the attention. He had 7.5 sacks and three forced fumbles with New England last year, and the hope is that he’ll generate pressure to help the Lions fix their defense, which forced the third-fewest turnovers in the league last season. Rookie QB Kyler Murray will get to start his NFL career in front of a home crowd, and the big question is the degree to which the Cardinals held back their “real” offensive schemes in the preseason.

On the spot : Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson. He was obviously the best tight end in the draft, and he should be an immense help for Matthew Stafford, who struggled to attack the intermediate middle of the field last season.

Cardinals RB David Johnson: He didn’t have a bad year in 2018, but he certainly wasn’t close to his usual self. Will Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense turn him back into one of the league’s most feared players?

The pick: Lions 24 Cardinals 23

TV: FOX        Line: PICK

What you need to know:  The Jameis Winston-Bruce Arians experiment begins, with many wondering if Arians is finally the right man to unlock the talents of the Bucs' QB and also rein in his reckless, turnover-prone play. QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s play in the preseason was at times alarming, so San Francisco fans likely aren’t sure what to expect in this one. Richard Sherman, whose 32 career interceptions are the second most for any active player, is likely licking his lips at the thought of a few irresponsible throws by Winston. If Winston does keep things under control, it could mean a big game for Mike Evans, one of only three players in league history (Randy Moss and A.J. Green) with 1,000 or more receiving yards in each of their first five seasons.

On the spot:  49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He was bad enough in his return to action that some alarm bells were raised, even though it was only the preseason. He was better the next time out, but there will be nervous fans in the Bay Area until he strings together a few good games.

Buccaneers LB Lavonte David. George Kittle set a season NFL record for receiving yards (1,377) by a tight end in 2018, and the Niners no doubt want him to be a major part of the game plan. It will be up to David, among others, to try to keep Kittle in check.

The pick: Buccaneers 28 49ers 24

TV: NBC        Line: New England -5.5

What you need to know:  The post-Antonio Brown era begins for the Steelers, but not in a welcoming place. Pittsburgh hasn’t beaten New England in Foxborough in the careers of head coach Mike Tomlin or Ben Roethlisberger — except when Tom Brady was injured in 2008. That's when the Steelers rolled over a Matt Cassel-led team, 33-10. New England is extremely thin at tight end, which may mean some funky personnel groups are in store for Pittsburgh’s defense. Steelers safety Sean Davis might miss the game due to a thigh injury. Brady is embarking on a quest to be the first quarterback in league history to play all 16 games at age 42.

On the spot:  Steelers linebacker Devin Bush. Pittsburgh moved up 10 spots in the draft to get him, and they did so for what they thought he could provide in games like this. He’ll have to get up to speed swiftly, or Brady might yet again carve up Pittsburgh’s defense.

Patriots offensive tackle Marcus Cannon:  He will have the toughest task on New England’s offensive line: stopping T.J. Watt, who led the Steelers last season with 13 sacks. If Pittsburgh gets to Brady with regularity, they might very well win.

The pick: Patriots 35 Steelers 27

TV: ESPN        Line: New Orleans -7

What you need to know:  Houston beefed up its offensive line in a big way by acquiring left tackle Laremy Tunsil from Miami, but one wonders if the Texans gave up too much (two first-rounders and a second-rounder). With Tunsil in the fold and Jadeveon Clowney gone, and pundits ripping their performance in both trades, Houston’s brain trust is likely thrilled that actual games are here. The Texans are probably less thrilled to see Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara. Kamara is one of only three running backs in league history (Herschel Walker and Christian McCaffrey) with at least 1,500 yards rushing and 1,500 yards receiving in his first two seasons.

On the spot:  Texans RB Duke Johnson Jr.  Houston’s offensive line will be better with Tunsil, but it still isn’t good, and Johnson, acquired from the Browns in a trade, must be an effective safety valve for Deshaun Watson. Johnson has at least 47 catches and 400 yards in each of the past four seasons.

Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan: Watson is the key to everything the Texans want to do offensively, but Jordan is one of the league’s most underrated pass rushers. If he can spend significant time in Houston’s backfield, it will be a long night for the visitors.

The pick: Saints 38 Texans 20

TV: ESPN        Line: PICK

What you need to know: The  Antonio Brown saga has ended in about the ugliest possible fashion; after posting a video to his YouTube channel, Brown asked the Raiders to  release him on Instagram early Saturday, and the team obliged. Brown, who signed with the Patriots on Saturday, won't play in Week 1. Now Oakland will have to try to  move on from one of the most bizarre failed marriages in NFL history.

On the spot: CB Chris Harris. Harris is one of the league's best corners, but Brown has tortured him in the past, outclassing him with an absurd 16 catch, 189-yard, 2 touchdown performance in late 2015. If anything similar happens again, the Broncos are in big trouble.

Ex-Raiders WR Antonio Brown. Who else could it be? Brown’s last eight months have been the theater of the absurd, overshadowing his greatness on the field. 

The pick: Oakland 23 Denver 17