
Each week, I’ll be looking to spotlight players and defenses that I think have a tough matchup that could prevent them from producing their usual value. However, this is not intended as blanket advice to play fringe players ahead of established studs—for example, even if I call out a negative matchup for Josh Allen, it doesn’t mean he should be benched for Bryce Young—so always consider your own lineup alternatives.
With that out of the way, let’s look at Week 1:
In a happy coincidence, my example for negative matchups not necessarily being someone to bench happens to be my first callout for Week 1. The Houston Texans finished sixth in pass defense last season and third in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Allen felt the brunt of that last year when he threw for 253 yards with no touchdowns and two picks. He added just 20 yards on the ground and didn’t score. It wasn’t any better in a 2024 matchup between the teams: 131 yards passing, 54 yards rushing, one TD. While you’d be hard-pressed to keep Allen out of your lineup, it’s at least worth considering. Others I don’t like:
After getting little and less out of the running back position in recent years, the Chiefs made a significant investment in Walker, the reigning Super Bowl MVP. He should carry a heavy load for the team. Walker draws a tough assignment right out of the gate, however, as the Denver Broncos featured the No. 2 rush defense in 2025 (No. 4 in fantasy points allowed to RBs). I expect Denver to prioritize stifling Walker and putting the onus on a potentially rusty Patrick Mahomes to move the football on Monday night. Others I don’t like:
Although you may not associate the Bills with an elite secondary, no team in the NFL allowed fewer passing yards than Buffalo in 2025 (156.9 yards per game). Collins experienced it firsthand last October when he caught three passes for 55 yards. In 2024, the Michigan product had his season low in receptions (2) versus the Bills, though that did include a 67-yard touchdown grab. Still, I’d view Collins as no more than a midrange WR3 this Sunday. Others I don’t like:
Finally freed from the yoke of being TE2 behind Mark Andrews for the Baltimore Ravens, Likely has found his name on many a fantasy breakout column for 2026. So, what better way to start than against the last-ranked Dallas Cowboys pass defense? To quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend.” For all their struggles, Dallas ranked 11th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and this group is expected to be improved. With all the change that happened in New York, I’m apt to take a wait-and-see approach. Others I don’t like:
Houston Texans: Yes, the Texans have a top defense, and they should make life tough on Allen. I still don’t like going against the former MVP on the road, though.
New England Patriots: Although it was New England’s offense that killed the team’s hopes of winning Super Bowl LX, the defense managed one sack and zero takeaways against Seattle.
Minnesota Vikings: Only two teams turned the ball over less than the Packers (13) in 2025, and just six allowed fewer sacks. That’s a tough way to make a living for a fantasy defense.
More must-reads:
+
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!