Who Should I Start? NFL Fantasy Week 1

Bo Nix gets a nice setup to start the season. He matches up against the Titans’ defense, which ranked 25th last season in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Nix finished last season as the overall QB7 and, over his last four starts, averaged 23.62 fantasy points per game. Nix is a strong start at home week one at Tennessee.

Additional Quarterback Starts: Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Michael Penix Jr.

Running Back: Christian McCaffrey, San Fransiciso 49ers (@ Seattle)

After last season’s fantasy disaster, reports out of San Francisco have indicated that McCaffrey is back to full strength. McCaffrey is lined up to face the Seahawks defense that finished last season ranked 24th against in points allowed to the position. In three full games last season, CMC averaged just under 19 touches, 94 yards per game, and played 80% of the snaps. The 49ers’ pass-catching core is dinged up, which could lead to a bump in McCaffrey’s passing game usage. This game is forecasted to be a competitive game script, with just a 2.5 point spread. CMC should eat in week one!

Additional Running Back Starts: Kenneth Walker, Ashton Jeanty, David Montgomery

Wide Receiver: Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers (@ Jacksonville)

Carolina Panthers rookie Tetairoa McMillan appears to be the real deal. In week one, he is set up this week to face the Jaguars defense that last year ranked near the league bottom in explosive plays allowed and 27th in points allowed to wide receivers. McMillian is the alpha in the Panther passing game, and his size makes him a terrific red zone threat. Take this with a grain of salt, but in his one preseason game with sizable usage, McMillan saw a 26.3% target share from Bryce Young. Fire up the rookie wide receiver in week one!

Additional Wide Receiver Starts: Drake London, Courtland Sutton, Xavier Worthy, Deebo Samuel Sr.

Tight End: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns (vs. Cincinnati)

With Joe Flacco under center, fantasy owners should love David Njoku’s week one prospects. Last year, among qualified tight ends, he ranked top-four in fantasy points per game, top five in target share, and was seventh in receiving yards. The Browns-Bengals game is projected to be one of the higher-scoring games on the Week 1 slate, with a 47.5-point implied game total. Lastly, in the two games versus Cincinnati in 2024, Njoku finished as a top-five tight end each week.

Additional Tight End Starts: Tyler Warren, Brenton Strange

Sit ‘Em Week 1:

Quarterback: Justin Fields, New York Jets (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

Justin Fields gets to face his old team in week one, and will no doubt have some extra motivation, but he belongs on your bench in week one. Pittsburgh’s defense tied for first in takeaways and gave up the sixth fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season. Fields made six starts last year and averaged only 184 yards passing and less than one touchdown pass per game. In addition, the Jets’ 17.5 implied team total is the second lowest on the NFL betting slate. Sit Justin Fields in week one!

Additional Quarterback Sits: Justin Herbert, Cam Ward

Running Back: Caleb Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ New York Jets)

Earlier this summer, most in the fantasy community felt Caleb Johnson would start the season as the Steelers’ lead back. However, as the season begins, it appears Jaylen Warren will start at running back and see the majority of the running back snaps and touches. Next, the Jets’ defense ranked 11th in fantasy points allowed to running backs in 2024. We do not see a path to Johnson being fantasy-relevant right now. That could all change obviously, but you’re not taking that risk in week one. Keep Caleb Johnson on the bench this week.

Additional Running Back Sits: Javonte Williams, Najee Harris, Nick Chubb

Wide Receiver: Cooper Kupp, Seattle Seahawks (vs. San Francisco 49ers)

It remains to be seen if Cooper Kupp can bounce back with his new team; regardless, he is sitting for us in week one. We need to see how Kupp’s role plays out within the Seattle passing game, and he gets a difficult matchup versus the 49ers. They were ranked in the top-7 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and the return of Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator is a major upgrade to this unit. They have strong corners and will make tough sledding for the Seahawks’ pass offense as a whole. Kupp is a no-go for us in week one!

Additional Wide Receiver Sits: D.K. Metcalf,

Tight End: Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta Falcons (vs. Tampa Bay)

As we write this, we can see Kyle Pitts flip the script and go off this week, and if that happens, so be it. We all know about the athleticism, etc, but he simply can not be trusted in fantasy lineups. In his last three games of 2024, Pitts saw 10 targets, catching six balls for 66 yards and a touchdown. Keep in mind that was with current Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. Lastly, he ranked just 20th among tight ends in fantasy points per game and 24th in target share. Pitts needs to show us some consistency before inserting him into our lineups.

Additional Tight End Sits: Jonuu Smith, Zach Ertz

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Start with your studs; the obvious choices, such as Josh Allen, Jamar Chase, and Saquon Barkley, need no mention. Next, avoid getting caught up in the player projections you see on your fantasy platform. Finally, do not discount the NFL betting lines and trends. They can give you valuable information, such as game spreads, implied team and implied game totals. That information can be an effective tool in helping you with your start-sit determinations.

For example, starting a team that is a double-digit favorite would be astromg play because they are forecast to play with a lead in the second half. On the other side, the opposing quarterback in that game may be a strong option playing in a negative game script. Please follow us on X and Facebook and message us with any other weekly start-sit questions!