Why Bill Barnwell's critique of the Vikings misses the mark

Bill Barnwell, the esteemed NFL analyst over at ESPN, has revealed his annual playoff picks and he has the Minnesota Vikings failing to make the postseason.

Why isn't he picking Minnesota to make the playoffs for the third time in four years under head coach Kevin O'Connell? He gave two main reasons:

1. Can't maintain winning rate in one-score games
2. Defense won't force as many turnovers

Barnwell suspects 22-year-old quarterback J.J. McCarthy will give the Vikings similar production to what they received in recent seasons with Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins under center, but his instinct is that "a defensive decline and a less fortunate year in one-score contests push the Vikings back toward the middle of the NFC pack."

The Vikings went 8-1 in one-score games last season, which Barnwell doesn't think is likely to be repeated. Keep in mind, however, that Minnesota went 9-0 in one-score games in O'Connell's rookie season as head coach in 2022. That team finished 13-4.

In 2023, the Vikings were 4-8 in one-score games, which included a 2-4 record in one-score games with Cousins at quarterback and a 2-4 record after Cousins suffered a torn Achilles at Lambeau Field in Week 8. Context matters here and what Barnwell didn't mention was that the Vikings started the season 1-4 and then got red-hot, with Cousins playing at an MVP level before the injury derailed Minnesota's momentum. They likely would've been better than 4-8 in one-score games had Cousins been healthy for the full season.

Subscribe: Sign up for the free Vikings On SI newsletter

Why doesn't Barnwell think Minnesota's defense can put up similar turnover numbers? Last season, the Vikings and Steelers tied for the most takeaways with 33, with the Vikings racking up 24 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries.

"A thrilling defense led the league in turnovers, as the Vikings jumped from 19th in turnover rate to second. That's difficult to sustain, especially with the Vikings turning over a chunk of their secondary," Barnwell wrote.

The Vikings let cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin enter free agency, while Cam Bynum signed a free-agent contract with the Indianapolis Colts. Gilmore is still a free agent and Griffin was cut by the Seahawks before re-signing to Seattle's practice squad. That opened the door for Minnesota to reload in the secondary with Harrison Smith and Josh Metellus returning at safety, while Theo Jackson got promoted to Bynum's role. The top cornerbacks are 2024 Pro Bowler Byron Murphy Jr. and newcomers Isaiah Rodgers and Jeff Okudah.

Sure, there are questions about Rodgers and Okudah, but their jobs got easier when the Vikings added stalwart defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave in free agency. That duo's ability to generate pressure on the interior will only make Minnesota's pass rushing trio of Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner more dangerous — and that pressure on quarterbacks should help provide plenty of interception opportunities.

In fact, one could easily argue that Minnesota's defense is primed to produce more turnovers than last season's defense.

In any case, Barnwell picked the Packers to win the division and the Lions to make the playoffs as a wild card. That's just more bulletin board material for a Vikings team that has gone 31-11 under O'Connell when the QB1 (Cousins, Darnold) has been on the field.

More from Vikings On SI