Why Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is a dark-horse MVP candidate

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence should make a quantum leap this season, but can he vault into the MVP discussion?

Per OddsChecker, the 23-year-old has the eighth-best odds (+1800) to win the coveted award, and he holds certain advantages that will significantly increase his chances.

"Jacksonville is the odds-on favorite (-155), 60 percent implied probability) to win the AFC South division and has the potential to have the best record in the conference," wrote the Action's Network Gilles Gallant. "That is key as every MVP winner since 2016 has been on a team that had or shared the best conference record."

Even though the Jaguars went 9-8 and clawed into the playoffs in 2022, Jacksonville posting the best record in the AFC this season is plausible due to its easy schedule. It's the 23rd-most-difficult in the league, via NFL research. 

In 17 games last season, Lawrence tied for eighth in passing TDs (25), was 10th in passer rating (95.8) and made his first Pro Bowl appearance. He should post better numbers this year since he has a bona fide No. 1 wide receiver in Calvin Ridley and will progress more in his second season with head coach Doug Pederson.

"You've seen that confidence level increase," Pederson said of Lawrence in a Monday news conference. "It's fun to be around guys like that and young quarterbacks like that. Again, as we've said, he's a sponge. He wants to learn. He wants to get better."

Lawrence is on the verge of catapulting into the top tier of quarterbacks and showing why he was the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Consequently, he is set to reach the next level and enter the MVP race as a dark horse.