Why the 49ers will be in a dogfight against the Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville had the second pick in the draft; on paper, that’s an easy 49er win. On the field, this won’t be easy. New head coach and offensive coordinator Liam Coen has transformed the Jags.

The Jaguars are tied for second in pass protection at just one sack per game, eighth in total offense, fourth in rushing. A top-five defense ranks 5th in points allowed and against the run, a +5 turnover margin tied for first, and the Jags are the league leader in interceptions. Last year they won four games; this year they’re 2-1 and a potential playoff team in the AFC.

For the Niners, Brock Purdy is expected to return, and WR Demarcus Robinson comes off his three-game suspension. That will help diversify the offense. Without Nick Bosa, the defense will need to find new ways to create pressure.

49ers On Offense

Against Arizona, Christian McCaffrey had 32 of the 62 plays on offense. Kyle Shanahan has always favored the CMC Easy Button, but keep pressing it this often and it’ll break. McCaffrey has 77 touches in three games, a franchise record. He’s on pace to hit 436 for the season. That’s not sustainable.

There’s a debate about whether McCaffrey has lost a step. Some claim it’s on the offensive line; the interior has been poor so far as Connor Colby and Dominick Puni are both recovering from injuries.

That said, here’s the proof of McCaffrey’s lost step. In his 2023 Offensive Player of the Year season, his averaged 2.2 yards after contact. In 2025, it’s 0.8. McCaffrey has a long of just 15 yards this year. In 2023, he had runs of 72 and 65 yards. In 2024 and 2025 combined, he had a long of 19. This isn’t debatable; he has lost a step.

McCaffrey is still a great receiver. He leads the team in receptions with 25 for 253 yards. On the ground though, the running game needs to spread the carries, particularly in the red zone. This season, McCaffrey has 13 carries in the red zone for seven yards.

Jordan James is healthy now; in my view, he should be the team’s best between the tackles runner; he needs red zone touches, so does Brian Robinson Jr. given his physicality.

Ricky Pearsall has been a star, third in the NFL in yards at 281 and fifth in yards per catch at 17.6. Getting Robinson back will be a big boost. Both will need to be featured.

For Brock Purdy, this is the game where he cannot afford to react to pressure by throwing the ball into double coverage. The Jags have seven picks in three games; their secondary has better hands than their receivers. The picks are helped by the Jags bringing the fastest pressure in the league. In this matchup when pressured, Purdy has to make sharp decisions and be aware of the Jags' ball skills.

Jacksonville has six sacks on the year, led by Travon Walker with two, and former Niner Arik Armstead with 1.5. Armstead will be motivated for this one, and the Niner interior has been weak.

Jacksonville on Offense

Trevor Lawrence has poor stats through three games, but that needs context; his receivers are dropping a ton of passes. Per NFL analyst Warren Sharp, a third of Lawrence’s incompletions are due to receiver error, 12% of his passes are drops, and 19% of his passes in the red zone are drops.

Their receiver room is the land of frying-pan hands, opposable thumbs sold separately, the curse of Trent Baalke. If the receivers can hang on to the ball, that’s a game changer for Lawrence and Jacksonville. If not, that could be why they lose this game.

The Niners defensive line may struggle to create pressure, without Bosa, going against the league’s 2nd best OL in pass pro. When Bosa was on the field against Arizona, the pressure rate was 45.5%; when he wasn’t, it was 28%. Robert Saleh will have to blitz more. Currently, the Niners blitz at a 9.4% rate, 28th in the league.

The danger for the 49ers is Renardo Green and the safeties in pass coverage. Seattle ignored them and lost. New Orleans had three touchdowns against the safeties. Arizona targeted the safeties for key 3rd down conversions.

Marques Sigle has a PFF pass coverage grade of 47.2 (109th among 123 safeties). Passer rating allowed 142.6. Jason Pinnock is graded at 51.4 (103rd). Passer rating allowed 129.2. Green has a pass coverage grade of 50.4, ranking 114th of 158 DBs.

The combination of a sharp offensive coordinator and a capable quarterback with time to throw could be lethal against Green and the safeties. The Niners' saving grace could be the drops. It’s crazy that may determine the outcome.

The Jags are fourth in rushing. Travis Etienne has 270 yards on the ground, third in the league. The Niners can shut that down, but do face a capable offensive line, and Etienne has great speed.

Prediction (2-1)

The Niners can move the ball, but they need to convert more red zone possessions into touchdowns. That means red zone carries for backs other than McCaffrey. Pearsall and Robinson should do well. The combination of Purdy and a Jacksonville secondary that leads the league in interceptions is a concern; turnovers can be key.

The Jags, in theory, should beat Green and the safeties with Lawrence having time to throw, but the inexcusable volume of receiver drops can negate that.

I think the Jag receivers will catch the ball enough to get three scores, Purdy will throw at least one pick, and the Niners will struggle to get TDs in the red zone. Which adds up to an unexpected Jacksonville win.

Jacksonville 27 49ers 23