Will the Falcons eclipse their 2025 win total of 7.5?

The Atlanta Falcons haven’t been the best team to bet on for a while, and last season was no different.

Expectations were high around Flowery Branch for the first time in years, thanks to the acquisition of Kirk Cousins, who the Falcons inked to a four-year, $180 million contract in the offseason. Playoffs were on the minds of everybody in Atlanta, and oddsmakers saw the vision, setting the Falcons win total at 9.5, which would have netted a playoff berth.

For nine weeks, the over looked like money in the bank. The Falcons were 6-3 and comfortably on top of the NFC South. Then, a disgusting loss to the Saints happened in Week 10, one in which Kirk Cousins suffered a shoulder injury, and the team was never the same. The Falcons fell short of their win total, winning just eight games and missing out on the postseason for the seventh consecutive season.

However, there was a silver lining that emerged over the final three weeks. With Cousins struggling so mightily, the Falcons turned to the rookie Michael Penix Jr., who flashed moments of brilliance, particularly in a Week 18 loss to the Panthers, where he accumulated over 300 yards passing and three touchdowns.

So, while the 2024 campaign was indeed a massive disappointment, there is once again hope in Atlanta, even if the oddsmakers suggest Falcons fans should be tempering their expectations.

The Falcons’ 2025 win total is set at just 7.5 games — a number that feels shockingly low. ESPN’s Pamela Maldonado agrees, recently naming Atlanta’s over 7.5 wins as one of her favorite season win-total bets in the NFL.

“The Falcons have a path to nine wins, and it starts with a healthy Michael Penix Jr. and one of the softest schedules in the league. Atlanta faces the fourth-easiest slate overall and the cushiest against the run, a dream scenario for RB Bijan Robinson & Co. From Week 9 on, seven of the Falcons’ 10 games are against teams projected to have losing records, and only two of those matchups are true road games. The talent is here, and if the strong-armed Penix is even average, this number can hit.”

The oddsmakers are essentially betting against Michael Penix Jr. with this win total, assuming there could be some pretty severe growing pains. That’s more than fair. He’s a first year starting quarterback; there will absolutely be bumps in the road.

With that being said, there were a ton of bumps in the road last year for the Falcons under center. Kirk Cousins started off the year very slow before starting to look like a top QB, only for him to turn into a tomato can over a five week stretch. Then, Michael Penix started the final three games. The Falcons only got competent QB play for about 6-7 games last year, and they still managed to win eight games.

As far as the rest of the roster, it should be much improved in 2025. Offensively, nearly every starter returns, outside of Drew Dalman. And the defense has no choice but to improve after being one of the worst units in the league a year ago.

Unless Michael Penix Jr. takes three steps back from where he was a year ago, the Falcons should absolutely get to eight wins. The playoffs might not be a guarantee, but hitting this over should be. If not, there are going to be a lot of heads rolling next offseason.