Zach Ertz 2025 NFL Redraft Outlook: The Ageless Wonder Faces Reality Check

Here’s where we separate the wheat from the chaff, folks. Ertz commanded an 18% target share in 2024, which sounds impressive until you realize he was basically the only reliable option not named Terry McLaurin. His 91 targets ranked second on the team, but that number tells only part of the story.

The real eye-opener? Ertz dominated in the red zone with a 30.9% target share—second among all tight ends. He was practically Jayden Daniels’ security blanket whenever Washington got close to paydirt. But efficiency? That’s where things get murky. His 1.32 yards per route run ranked 23rd among qualifying tight ends, and his 2.8 yards after catch per reception ranked 25th. Translation: he was reliable, not explosive.

The Deebo Samuel Problem Nobody’s Talking About

Now here comes the plot twist that should have every Ertz truther sweating bullets. Washington went out and traded for Deebo Samuel, and unless Samuel suddenly forgets how to play football, he’s about to steal a significant chunk of those underneath targets that kept Ertz relevant.

Think about it this way: last season, Ertz feasted on short and intermediate routes because the Commanders literally had nobody else to throw to. Samuel specializes in those same routes, except he’s faster, younger, and more likely to turn a 7-yard slant into a 20-yard gain. It’s like bringing a sports car to a bicycle race—the outcome becomes pretty predictable.

Age Ain’t Nothing But a Number (Until It Is)

Let’s address the elephant in the room: Zach Ertz turns 35 in November. According to historical aging curves, tight ends at age 35 typically perform at about 63% of their fantasy peak. Now, Ertz has already beaten the odds by making it this far; the guy’s practically a medical marvel at this point. But betting against Father Time in fantasy football is like betting against the house in Vegas: you might get lucky once, but the math always catches up.

The injury history doesn’t exactly inspire confidence either. Three documented concussions, including one as recent as Week 15 last season. An ACL/MCL tear in 2022. A quad injury that cost him ten games in 2023. This isn’t a guy you want to bank your fantasy season on, especially when there are younger, healthier options available.

Projecting Zach Ertz’s 2025 Fantasy Value

So, where does this leave us for 2025? The projections have Ertz catching around 61 passes for 595 yards and 4.9 touchdowns, solid TE2 numbers that won’t win you your league but won’t necessarily lose it either. He’s currently ranked as the TE16 in dynasty formats and TE22 in seasonal leagues, which feels about right for a guy in his situation.

The floor is there, Ertz knows the system, has chemistry with Daniels, and Washington re-signed him to a one-year, $6.25 million deal (nearly $6 million guaranteed). That’s not chump change for a guy they don’t plan to use. But the ceiling? That’s where things get dicey. With Samuel in the mix and Ben Sinnott potentially taking a step forward in Year 2, Ertz’s target share could take a significant hit.

The Kliff Kingsbury Factor

Here’s something that might work in Ertz’s favor: Offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury seems to have found his groove. In 2024, Washington tight ends saw a combined 21% target share, which was a noticeable increase from Kingsbury’s Arizona days. The offensive continuity should benefit both Ertz and Jayden Daniels, whose development in Year 2 could lift all boats.

But let’s be real, continuity only goes so far when you’re dealing with an aging player in an upgraded offense. It’s like having the same chef cook with better ingredients; the end result might be tastier, but your old reliable dish might not be on the menu anymore.

Draft Strategy: Where to Target Ertz

If you’re hell-bent on drafting Zach Ertz in 2025, treat him like that reliable but unremarkable restaurant you go to when you can’t decide what you want for dinner. He’s not going to wow you, but he probably won’t disappoint you either. Target him in rounds 10-12 as your TE2 or as insurance for a riskier TE1 pick.

The key is managing expectations. Don’t draft Ertz, hoping for a repeat of his 2024 performance; draft him expecting a solid, if unspectacular, contribution from your tight end position. Think of him as the fantasy equivalent of a utility player: versatile, experienced, but probably not the guy you want starting in the playoffs.

Bottom Line: Proceed with Cautious Optimism

Zach Ertz’s 2025 fantasy outlook can be summed up in one word: complicated. He’s got the experience, the rapport with his quarterback, and the guaranteed role that makes him a safe pick. But he’s also got the age, injury history, and increased competition that make him a risky one.

In dynasty leagues, he’s barely a blip on the radar unless you’re desperately seeking veteran leadership. In redraft formats, he’s a decent TE2 option who might occasionally pop off for a big game, but you’re probably not winning your league because of Zach Ertz.

The smart play? Draft him if he falls to you at value, but don’t reach. There are younger, more explosive options available at the tight end position, and in fantasy football, youth and opportunity usually trump experience and familiarity. Ertz has had a hell of a career, but 2025 might be the year the music finally stops