2024–25 Edmonton Oilers player grade: Brett Kulak

Kulak’s strengths

Kulak had a strong season, although his role continually shifted throughout the season, and he endured a rotating cast of defensive partners. Although primarily playing alongside Ty Emberson, his utility ability allowed him to play over 100 minutes during the regular season alongside Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard, and Troy Stecher.

Kulak’s versatility is a reason he plays a prominent role at even strength and on the penalty kill. His lack of physicality, only 28 hits, belies his defensive stalwartness, where he ranked fourth among Edmonton’s blueline in takeaways, and paced second on the team in blocked shots.

Quietly getting the job done is the story of Kulak’s offence as well. Although he does not lead in any categories, he comfortably sits middle of the pack, finishing fourth among defenceman in points, as well as shots. Additionally, his underlying metrics support his steady offensive game.

Among Edmonton blueliners, he totaled the third-best scoring chance ratio, being present on ice for the second-most chances for and third-least against. Although his shot quality advanced metric, expected goal percentage (XG%), is sixth on the Oilers, Kulak helped pace Edmonton’s backend with the third most expected goals for (XGF), but the downside was on the defensive side, totaling the third most expected goals against.

Kulak’s weaknesses

As noted above, the defensive side outside of shot blocking showcased the insight into a down year for Kulak. Reviewing the conventional standards, he was the worst Oiler defenceman when present on the ice at even strength, with 68 against. Due to this high scoring against, his goals for percentage, which provides the ratio of goals for and against at even strength, was the 9th worst at 43.8%, registering 15 less goals on the offensive side. Part of the reason may have been his inability to clear the puck on the first zone exit, highlighted by generating the third most giveaways.

His zone play also struggled in the defensive zone, contributing to what is collectively known as PDO or “Puck Luck.” Due to his regression in the defensive zone, his inability to control the high-danger chance could have contributed to part of the goaltending struggles—Stuart Skinner posted an .891% with Kulak playing on the ice and overall PDO of .963, ninth worst on Edmonton. When present on the ice, he had the second-most high-danger chances against, 228, which was converted at an equally high rate, allowing 33 goals from the inner slot area at five on 5.

Player grade and performance review

Overall, although he stepped up to play in the playoffs alongside Nurse in a top-four role with the absence of Mattias Ekholm, Kulak’s season as a whole can be considered slightly above average. Yes, Kulak elevated when Edmonton required, but outside of that stint, and when paired with Nurse, Emberson, or Stecher, all the metrics drop off considerably if not partnered with Evan Bouchard. However, this year was also a career year offensively for Kulak, totaling 25 points and doubling his preivous season high in goals to seven.

For the past season, I believe Kulak deserves a solid B. His defensive play and lacklustre penalty-killing as a whole was down significantly year over year. This brings down his overall grade due to the high propensity to allow danger chances to be converted into goals and physical drop-off, regressed by over 50 hits season to season, from 77 to 28, vastly needs to see improvement when in a bottom pairing.

Expectations for the next season

Projecting a bottom-pairing defenceman is both difficult and simple due to year-to-year variance and outstanding play. For example, in the past three years, Kulak’s physical play, noted above, has steadily declined from 105 to 77 to 28 in the past year.

Speaking of outliers, this upcoming season should likely see a negative regression on goal total, returning to his normal pace of three goals, 16 assists, and 19 points. Outside of the stat sheet, Kulak should continue to block 100 shots, return to 70 hits, and fire 110 shots on net. For advanced metrics, both puck possession (Corsi) and shot quality (XG%) should continue to trend positively within Edmonton’s structure, but would expect a better return on his ability to clear the zone and keep pucks clear of the high-danger zone, given this was his first down year under a negative 50% benchmark.

If strong play continues to develop from the outset, I would project a contract extension to likely occur. However, as has been mentioned by analysts, it will likely require a discount. Due to the current makeup of Edmonton’s lineup and cap picture, I believe Kulak’s AAV to continue in a bottom-four role will be in the $3M by three-year range, with a downturn in play likely resulting in either a cap dump at the trade deadline as the Oilers make another playoff push, or leaving in free agency.