2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Jets vs. Stars series preview

Date	Game	Time
Wednesday, May 7	1. Dallas at Winnipeg	9:30 p.m. ET
Friday, May 9	2. Dallas at Winnipeg	9:30 p.m. ET
Sunday, May 11	3. Winnipeg at Dallas	4:30 p.m. ET
Tuesday, May 13	4. Winnipeg at Dallas	8 p.m. ET
Thursday, May 15	5. Dallas at Winnipeg	TBD
Saturday, May 17	6. Winnipeg at Dallas	TBD
Monday, May 19	7. Dallas at Winnipeg	TBD

The Skinny

You gotta hand it to the Jets and Stars: they closed out what might have been the best first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in recent memory.

Winnipeg held their own in terms of drama: down 3-1 with less than two minutes left in Game 7 of their first-round series against the St. Louis Blues on Sunday, the Jets scored twice, including one with 1.6 seconds remaining in regulation to force it to overtime. After more than 36 minutes of extra time, Adam Lowry tipped in a point shot to win the game and the series, sending Winnipeg to Round 2.

Dallas won Game 7 of their first-round matchup Saturday against the Colorado Avalanche, down 2-0 midway through the third period before storming back with four straight goals, three of which came from Mikko Rantanen against his former team in what will go down as one of the most memorable periods of hockey ever.

While both teams advanced, they had their share of struggles, with the Jets allowing St. Louis to run up the score in multiple games and come back to force a Game 7. Dallas, meanwhile, took a Game 1 drubbing and at times looked overmatched against the likes of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. However, both teams pulled magic out of their hats, or pulled something else out of something else, and are now one step closer to hockey’s glory.

Head to Head

Winnipeg: 3-1-0
Dallas: 1-3-0

The Jets won three of their four games against the Stars, outscoring them 13-5. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 109 of 113 shots faced, posting a .965 save percentage (SV%) in that span. That being said, both teams have the privilege and curse of playing in the Central Division, arguably the toughest division in hockey, with the type of zone-entry killing defense and all-world goaltending that makes every whistle in the opponent’s zone feel like a win, and makes a Wednesday night in January feel like a Saturday night in May.

Fun fact: it’s the first time these two teams have faced each other in the playoffs. Wait, is that a fun fact? I’m not sure, but, regardless, it’s a fact.

Top Five Scorers

Winnipeg

Kyle Connor, 12 pts
Mason Appleton, 6 pts
Mark Scheifele, 6 pts
Neal Pionk, 5 pts
Cole Perfetti, 5 pts

Dallas

Mikko Rantanen, 12 pts
Wyatt Johnston, 7 pts
Roope Hintz, 7 pts
Thomas Harley, 5 pts
Tyler Seguin, 12 pts

X-Factor

It’s really simple: Connor Hellebuyck. Moving along…

Alright, it’s more complicated than that … actually, it isn’t. If we want a series that’s half as exciting as what we got in the first round, the Jets’ starting goalie will have to step up. It’s hard to fathom such a dichotomy between Hellebuyck in the regular season – posting a .925 save percentage (SV%), a 39.6 goals saved above expected (GSAx) (10 more than the next goalie), expected to win his third Vezina Trophy and a finalist for the Hart Trophy – and Hellebuyck in the playoffs, who just allowed five or more goals in three of seven games in the first round. In his last three playoff seasons, his save percentage is .861 and his goals against average is 4.10. It’s hard to come up with anything similar in hockey or other professional sports.

Hellebuyck told reporters ahead of Game 5 against the Blues that he’s “studied goaltending extremely hard. I’ve probably studied the most out of anyone in this world, so I know what to do and how to get my best game.” I believe him. There’s a case to be made he’s the best goalie of the ’20s, and is already a future Hockey Hall of Famer. But if Hellebuyck wants to be considered one of the greatest of all-time, more than just a statistical highlight and bar trivia answer, then he needs to step up.

If he plays at the level we’ve seen during Winnipeg’s regular season, the Jets could advance to their first Conference Final in seven years. If not, the Stars will have plenty of time to rest while they wait for one of the Edmonton Oilers or Vegas Golden Knights.

Offense

Through the regular season, the Jets’ offense looked like it was built for a deep playoff run, with six players hitting the 50-point mark and five more finishing in the 30-point range. Connor recorded a career-high 97 points and finished with his second 40-goal season of his career, while Scheifele’s 87 points finished second on the team. Despite missing 13 games with injury, Nikolaj Ehlers’ 63 points nearly broke his own career high, and Josh Morrissey continued producing on the blue line with 62 points.

In the playoffs, Connor has been the driving force of the offense, recording 12 points (four goals and eight assists) in seven games, including a three-assist performance in Game 7 against St. Louis. Lowry and Perfetti drove play against the Blues, both with expected goals for percentages (xGF%) of more than 65. You always hear about how the speed of the game increases in the playoffs. But it feels like everything comes to a halt beyond the first 10 minutes of Game 1, with tighter checking and every inch of ice being fought over. That’s where guys like Lowry thrive, asserting themselves in the high-danger zone around the net and creating opportunities for themselves and teammates.

Winnipeg had the NHL’s best power play in the regular season with a mark of 28.9 percent, but that has seen a sizeable drop in the playoffs, down to 22.7. In fact, they have the lowest mark among teams still in the postseason. If the Jets are going to beat the Stars, they’ll need a healthy power play with Scheifele and Morrissey that can match up against a Dallas penalty kill that’s running at an 86 percent kill rate.

Just like Winnipeg, the Stars’ offensive depth shone through the 2024-25 season. Matt Duchene drank from the fountain of youth and hit the 80-point mark for the first time in three years, and after a slow start, Jason Robertson found his game, finishing with a nice round 80 points. Wyatt Johnson, in just his third NHL season, set career highs in all offensive categories with 33 goals, 38 assists, and 71 points. Last but not least, there’s Roope Hintz, the perennial “Oh yeah, that guy!” who again finished just shy of 70 points and makes everyone he plays with look good.

A total of nine players hit the 40-point mark, but that’s if we omit Rantanen, whom they acquired ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline. Combine his stats from playing with the Avalanche, Stars and Carolina Hurricanes, and Rantanen’s 88 points still put him 15th in the league – not bad for someone whose future wasn’t settled for three-quarters of the year.

In Round 1, with Robertson out of the lineup and Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment playing like they were out of the lineup, Rantanen pulled a Greg Jennings and put the team on his back, putting up 11 points in Games 5, 6 and 7 and recording a series-clinching hat trick at home in Game 7. The guy is a walking video game when it comes to playoff production, and unless your name is Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, no one can match him. If a healthy Robinson joins him on the first line and a healthy Heiskanen takes his spot on the blue line, his offense might spike even higher in Round 2.

Defense

For Winnipeg, all but Haydn Fleury and Logan Stanley finished the regular season with even-strength Corsi percentages of more than 50 percent. Morrissey posted another elite-level defensive season, finishing with 60 points and leading Jets defenders with 49 takeaways. Dylan DeMelo won’t grab anyone’s attention with his prolific offense, but the former London Jr. Knights U16 standout knows how to separate man from puck and make a strong first pass, and as mentioned earlier, when the ice gets tougher to skate through, guys like DeMelo stand out.

Neal Pionk had been among the most prolific hitters in the game the past three seasons, averaging 191 per year. But in 2024-25, that number dropped to 114. While he missed some time with injury, Pionk spent more time with the puck than without it this season, averaging 22:04 of ice time – the most he’s recorded over a full season – and finishing with his best even-strength Corsi percentage in the last five years. While he’s continued his strong play in the playoffs – posting a 55 percent even-strength Corsi in seven games – his game was highlighted with the absence of Morrissey, carrying the load after the first period and into the two overtime periods.

The most impressive part of the Stars’ victory over the Avalanche may have been that they did it without their best defender in Heiskanen, who has been out since Jan. 28 with a knee injury. The likes of Esa Lindell and Thomas Harley have stepped up in his absence. Yes, even Cody Ceci and Ilya Lyubushkin have played just well enough to keep Dallas in the fight. That being said, Lindell is getting eaten alive with the extra ice time, on the ice for more than double the even-strength shot attempts against (199) than for (97), resulting in a Corsi number of 32.7 percent.

Speaking of Heiskanen, the Finnish standout who would win the Norris Trophy if Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes didn’t exist has been skating with the team and could see action early in the series against Winnipeg. If the Stars put him in the lineup, his addition pushes everyone like Ceci and Lyubushkin down the lineup, putting them in the 4-to-6 D range they’re more suited for. However, this could all be gamesmanship from Dallas, and Heiskanen isn’t even close to returning.

Goaltending

We focused a lot on Hellebuyck when discussing the X-factor of the series, so let’s look at Jake Oettinger, a fellow U.S. National Team product. Compared to the first three regular seasons in his career, Oettinger’s .909 SV% in 2024-25 was modest, as was the 10.7 GSAx, which ranked 22nd among goalies with a minimum 20 games played. His playoff numbers this spring are strong, with a modestly higher save percentage at .911 but is third among active playoff goalies with a 2.9 GSAx. Take away the five goals against in a 7-4 loss in Game 6, and that save percentage climbs to .916. The Stars’ defense is weaker than years past, especially with Heiskanen’s absence, but that’s a testament to how confident Oettinger looked in net in Round 1. Like the Jets, Dallas has any and all success through the blue paint.

If both Hellebuyck and Oettinger are at their best, Hellebuyck is the better goalie and the Jets will have a greater chance of winning. But if we see flashes of what we saw in Round 1 from the Winnipeg netminder, then the Stars are the likely favorite. DFO colleague Steven Ellis summed up the crease matchup quite well in his Round 2 goalie preview:

“(Hellebuyck) has given fans very little reason to be confident once the games start to matter,” Ellis said. “We’ll see if he can flip the script against Dallas – if not, his fellow countryman will be there to steal the spotlight.”

Injuries

Injuries played a key factor for both teams in Round 1, and those same injuries will carry into the second round. The Jets lost Mark Scheifele for Games 6 and 7 against St. Louis, and Josh Morrissey left the final game of the Stars series midway through the first period with an undisclosed injury. If Winnipeg wants to beat Dallas, both Scheifele and Morrissey will have to be in the lineup sooner rather than later.

For Dallas, the lack of Heiskenan and Robertson hurt them at times against Colorado, especially on the blue line, where depth players forced to take on a bigger role were attacked. If neither player returns in the first two games in Winnipeg, the Jets will have a distinct advantage with the last change.

Intangibles

Winnipeg spent most of the year at or near the top of the league standings – and arguably most importantly, near the top of the Daily Faceoff Power Rankings – but all year, whether it was my DFO colleague Scott Maxwell or hockey fans and pundits in general, no one took them seriously. “Yeah but,” and “we’ll see,” were phrases often muttered. Once the playoffs began, all those fans and pundits were nearly proven right, and if it weren’t for a miraculous comeback, it would have been a disaster in Winnipeg.

But they’re here now, and all the noise from Round 1 was swallowed up by the deafening “Yeahs!” that echoed through Canada Life Centre after their captain clinched their first series victory since 2021. Brandon Tanev is blocking every shot he can and Morgan Barron, with saltwater in his veins from Canada’s east coast, is hitting everything in sight. This Jets squad won the Presidents’ Trophy and is playing desperately – and that’s a good thing. The road to the Stanley Cup is never comfortable, but the glory comes from pushing through.

Meanwhile, Dallas is all swagger right now, thumping the Avalanche in the third period of Game 7 and improving Head Coach Pete DeBoer’s Game 7 record to 9-0. While they’re missing someone like Chris Tanev on their blue line, whose gritty stay-at-home simplicity was a huge factor in them advancing to the Western Conference Finals last season, Harley, Lindell and Ceci are blocking everything they can.

I’ll give Benn and Marchment one thing: despite the lack of production, they tried to tear a piece of skin off someone on Colorado during every shift they were on for. In a seven-game series, those bruises build up. If they can keep that up against the Jets, hitting Morrissey and Pionk on every dump-in, it will mean something in Games 5, 6, and 7.

Series Prediction

Both teams are riding off the adrenaline of action-packed, come-from-behind Game 7 victories. Man, the Central Division really knows how to deliver. I’m surprised at the amount of assumptions going behind the masses picking the Stars, if only because it’s not a guarantee Heiskanen and Robertson are in the lineup for Game 1, and that, as usual, Winnipeg is overlooked and underrated. If Hellebuyck wakes up from this coma and remembers he’s a playoff run or two away from the pantheon of 21st-century goaltenders, it will tilt in the Jets’ favor.

That being said … I’m a sucker for a storyline, and the pure dominance from Rantanen may be what tips the scales for the Dallas. Not to mention, I can’t envision the likes of Seguin, Marchment, Duchene and Jamie Benn having another quiet series.

Stars in six games.