2026-27 NHL team preview: Tampa Bay Lightning

LAST SEASON

As long as the current core exists, the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s expectations every season is Stanley Cup or bust. But after three consecutive first-round exits and minimal changes in the offseason, there was plenty of concern they were finally over the hill. Losing six of their first seven games certainly didn’t help their case, but that slump was followed by five-consecutive wins to bring them back to .500, and a seven-game win streak at the end of November and 11-game win streak through the holidays catapulted them to the mix for the top of the division.

The season wasn’t without some chaos though. Captain and defenseman Victor Hedman dealt with injuries and mental health struggles throughout the year, Ryan McDonagh, Nick Paul and Erik Cernak also dealt with injuries and usual sniper Brayden Point’s production fell off a cliff, but the Lightning got help from other sources. Darren Raddysh came out of nowhere with a 22-goal, 70-point season on the backend, Gage Goncalves and Dominic James emerged as solid depth scorers, and several blueliners stepped up to fill the void left by injuries (and quite well, may I add). That, paired with a Hart Trophy winning season from Nikita Kucherov, Vezina Trophy-winning season from Andrei Vasilevskiy and a Jack Adams Award winning-performance behind the bench from Jon Cooper, allowed Tampa to finish with a 50-26-6 record, good for second in the Atlantic Division. With Point heating up and the team getting healthier, all signs pointed to an end to the Lightning’s playoff series win mini-slump.

But it didn’t. After back-to-back first round losses to the Florida Panthers, the Lightning’s state rivals clearly affected how they played in the playoffs. Tampa was physical to the point of hurting their play, and constantly chasing around their opponent led to more bad than good. Oh, and they weren’t playing the Panthers either. They started by playing the Montreal Canadiens, a young team still getting their feet wet in the playoffs, who relied on skill to get the job done. Tampa focused up as the series went along, but it made things too close for comfort. And while their lineup overwhelmed the Canadiens under the hood, it didn’t overwhelm Jakub Dobes. The Lightning scored just four goals in the final three games of the series, and despite outshooting the Habs 29-9, they fell 2-1 in overtime in Game 7 and were out in the first round yet again.

So changes once again needed to be made. Instead of gambling on Raddysh’s breakout season, the Lightning moved him to the Toronto Maple Leafs and instead replaced him with the reliable veteran John Carlson in his place. Tampa added speedy defensive specialist Ilya Mikheyev and playdriver Jeffrey Viel on their wings in place of the departed Paul, Oliver Bjorkstrand and Corey Perry. The Bolts also finally added more goalie depth beyond Jonas Johansson in Dennis Hildeby. The core remains intact, but with some more makeovers in other parts of the lineup, is this the year the Lightning finally get past the first round for the first time since 2022, or will they go by the way of their aging core and continue to wither away?

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

John Carlson, D
Ilya Mikheyev, RW
Dennis Hildeby, G
Jeffrey Viel, LW
Jansen Harkins, C
Luke Glendening, C (PTO)

Departures

Darren Raddysh, D (TOR)
Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW (NYR)
Nick Paul, C (TOR)
Corey Perry, RW (LAK)
Declan Carlile, D (PIT)
Mitchell Chaffee, RW (NYI)

OFFENSE

As per usual, the Lightning were one of the top offenses in the league, even with the struggles to notable players. They were fourth with a 3.49 goals per game and were fifth in 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes with 3.01. In plain English, they knew how to generate chances on a consistent basis and had the talent to convert that. Their only struggle was on the power play, with their 20.7% success rate ranking 17th.

Kucherov was once again the driving force of that offense, as his silky-smooth skating and deceptive puck-handling makes him a threat at all times when he’s on the ice. Considering everything the Lightning dealt with, it’s not surprising thT Kucherov walked away as the Hart Trophy winner. Pundits often pointed out the 56-point gap between Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith on the San Jose Sharks as justification for the 2024 first-overall pick’s Hart Trophy candidacy, but Kucherov wasn’t far off, as his 130 points were 42 more than Jake Guentzel.

Part of the reason why Kucherov was such a strong Hart Trophy candidate was because he didn’t get his usual help from long-time teammates Hedman and Point. Hedman had several injuries and mental health struggles as an excuse. But even when he was in the lineup, he didn’t look like the same dynamic offensive creator from the backend, garnering just 17 points in 33 games. Point had less excuses, as even with 19 games missed to injury, his 18 goals and 50 points on a per-game basis were well below his usual 40-50 goals and 80-90 points. Tampa still got consistent production from power forward Jake Guentzel, 5v5 juggernaut Brandon Hagel and two-way specialist Anthony Cirelli. But they’ll need more from Hedman and Point if they want their offense to overwhelm their opponents.

Beyond that main group, the Lightning will look to their usual cast of “who are those guys?” and “he’s still in the league?” in the bottom-six to chip in every now and then. And like always, they perform much better than the brand their name carries. Ryan McDonagh can still put up some points; Geekie, Goncalves, Mikheyev, Yanni Gourde and Jakob Pelletier all have the ability to produce every now and then, and even on the backend the Lightning have some sneakily efficient producers in Maxwell Crozier and Charle-Edouard D’astous.

But the real name to look out for at the lower end of the lineup is Dominic James. Originally a sixth-round pick of the Chicago Blackhawks, the Lightning signed him out of college and he became a surprisingly impactful scorer in just 43 games for Tampa last season. His seven goals and 15 points aren’t sexy totals, but his 1.76 5v5 primary points per 60 minutes was tied for 52nd in the league, tied with Brady Tkachuk and ahead of other notable names like Filip Forsberg, Auston Matthews and Artemi Panarin. He’d be a solid guy to move up the lineup in place of the departed Paul and add some production.

As for the power play, the Lightning will hope that the addition of Carlson will do the trick. Raddysh got plenty of acclaim last season for his powerful shot from the point, but Carlson is no slouch in that regard. He did operate as the shot opposite to Alex Ovechkin for many seasons with the Washington Capitals, and was good enough to get some attention away from the game’s greatest goal scorer. Even at 36, he’s good for 50-60 points a season, so while he probably doesn’t have the high ceiling of Raddysh, he does come with a much higher floor. His two-year contract was also a much safer commitment than Raddysh’s eight years.

DEFENSE

Part of what made the Lightning such a strong team in the regular season was how effective they were at both ends of the ice. They allowed the third-fewest goals in the league with 2.71, were sixth in 5v5 expected goals against per 60 minutes with 2.52 and were just as diligent on the penalty kill with the third-best success rate at 82.6%.

A large reason for Tampa’s success in their own end was how effective almost their entire blueline was at defending. Whether it was by way of Cooper’s magic or off the talent of the personnel, most Lightning defensemen saw excellent defensive results. Whether it’s the veterans in Ryan McDonagh (-0.152 5v5 regularized adjusted plus minus xGA/60 in the past three seasons) and Erik Cernak (-0.051), the breakout in J.J. Moser (-0.035), or some of their depth options like Crozier (-0.06), D’astous (-0.109), or Emil Lilleberg (-0.024), everyone held down the fort for the entire season and did it well. In fact, you could make the case that, between his offensive and defensive struggles (0.102), Hedman was the Lightning’s worst defenseman last year in terms of his on-ice play. Carlson (0.069) also doesn’t bring much defensively at this point in his career, but Tampa has more than enough resources to insulate both veterans.

The Lightning will get no defensive help from their top line of Kucherov (0.079 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 since 2023), Point (0.129) and Guentzel (0.016), but it’s the rest of their forward group that will provide the team with defensive structure in front of their deep blueline. Cirelli (-0.109) and Hagel (-0.122) are some of the best in the game in that regard (minus is good), and while Paul (-0.064) turned that second line into an annoying shutdown unit, Tampa will have options to replace him, especially Gage Goncalves (-0.12). Rounding out the rest of the lineup, the likes of Girgensons (-0.068), Gourde (-0.082), Harkins (-0.087), Holmberg (-0.2), James (-0.038), Mikheyev (-0.093), and Pelletier (-0.025) have reliable defensive games. All in all, the Lightning will be tough to score on, and that’s before we get to the goaltending.

The only potential concern was the hiccup that was Cirelli’s 2025-26 defensive results. He’s been one of the league’s most consistent defensive players, receiving Selke votes for eight straight seasons and finishing in the top-three for the last two, but his place as a finalist last season was not deserved. His 0.089 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 was the 75th-worst in the league, and while his 56.08% 5v5 expected goal share was still really good, that number tanked to a 43.38% share away from Hagel. The Lightning will have to hope that this was just a one-off from Cirelli, or they could be in trouble.

GOALTENDING

Until his play says otherwise, the Lightning’s crease belongs to Vasilevskiy. While I don’t entirely agree with his Vezina win last season, it can’t be denied he still had an excellent season, finishing third in save percentage among goalies with 30+ starts (.912). That said, his 5v5 goals saved above expected is a better indicator of how well Tampa’s defensive environment helped him, as he was only 16th in that regard at 15.53. He also once again dipped off in the playoffs with an .897 SV% and 0.57 5v5 GSAx after his ninth-straight full season with at least 50 starts, so it’s clear the Lightning need to lighten his workload as he gets older to better help him for the playoffs.

Tampa couldn’t do that before because Jonas Johansson just wasn’t good enough to justify starting him unless they absolutely had to. In three seasons with the Lightning, Johansson has an .890 SV% (eighth-worst among goalies with 50+ games) and -7.9 5v5 GSAx (tied for 13th worst) in 70 games, and the Lightning were just under .500 in his games of record with 32 wins and 33 losses (10 in overtime). They’ll hope the addition of Hildeby will give them a goalie who can take some starts that aren’t just back-to-backs off of Vasilevskiy, and rest Tampa’s starter for the playoffs better than past seasons. Hildeby impressed in 20 games with the Leafs last season, with his .914 SV% and 7.16 5v5 GSAx showing positive signs that he has a place in this league, at least as an effective backup goaltender.

COACHING

On paper, there’s no reason to doubt Jon Cooper as the head coach of the Lightning. He’s the longest-tenured coach in the league, and is entering his 15th season with the Lightning. In that time, Tampa has missed the playoffs only twice (and one was his first season, which was long lost when he took over), made the Conference Finals six times, the Stanley Cup finals twice, and won it all twice. He’s 22nd all-time in wins as a coach, third among coaches to do so with one team, and his .639 points percentage is the third-best among coaches with 500 games behind the bench. Oh, and he just won his first Jack Adams Award last season. I think the way Tampa’s blueline maintained structure amidst all the injuries continues to speak to how strong of a coach he is.

It feels crazy to talk about Cooper as a potential candidate to get the axe considering all his accomplishments in Tampa. But every coach has an expiration date eventually, and now with four consecutive first-round exits, it’s possible that this may be as far as Cooper can take them. Maybe this is also just the current ceiling of the roster he’s been given recently, but he’s made his fair share of slip ups in these playoff appearances. Is a tough start to the season the straw that breaks the camel’s back or does the team have significantly more patience with him after all he’s done for them?

ROOKIES

Have the Lightning reached the point in their contention cycle where they’ve exhausted so many future resources to stay alive in the Stanley Cup race every year, and now find themselves with a weak prospect pool? Yes. Can I randomly pick any prospect from their pool, and they have a chance of breaking out this season and becoming and effective NHLer? Also yes.

What Tampa Bay has lacked in high-end prospects over the years, they’ve more than made up for it with their development. They’ve consistently churned out players who you’ve never heard of before and suddenly they’re effective NHLers. This season, we could be looking at the likes of Sam O’Reilly, Ethan Gauthier or Dylan Duke finding their way on the roster at some point by way of injuries, and maybe becoming that player this year. But it’s unlikely they’ll threaten for a consistent spot.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. What is left in Victor Hedman’s tank? 2025-26 was a tough season for Hedman. He missed 34 games due to injuries, lost his spot on the top power play unit, and then after a forgettable showing with Sweden at the 2026 Olympics, he only played in 12 games before leaving the team for the remainder of the season due to mental health struggles. He’s also seen his defensive game decline significantly in recent years. He’s back and freshened up, but with the incoming John Carlson poised to quarterback the power play, Hedman won’t really be put into a position to succeed anymore. Now 35, is there anything left from Hedman to maximize his performance, or are we witnessing the slow decline of one of the best defensemen of the past 10 years.

2. Can Brayden Point bounce back? Point also had a season to forget, as in addition to missing 18 games to injury, his production dropped off significantly, with his 50 points being his second-worst total in a non-shortened season in his career, and his 18 goals tying for his worst total. It can’t even be chalked up to bad luck either, as his shot rates have declined for three straight seasons now. Once a lock for 40-50 goals, he now looks lucky to hit 30. Was last season a one-off, or is this the new Point?

3. How will Nikita Kucherov’s extension impact the Lightning’s future? For a majority of Tampa’s years as a Stanley Cup contender, they’ve operated close to the edge of the salary cap, with little wiggle room. They’ve managed to make it work by keeping their core around, usually by signing them to insane bridge deals before committing them to reasonable long-term extensions, but that was when the market value for those players was $7-10 million. Now these players are commanding around $20 million, especially after Cale Makar’s extension, and all eyes are on what Kucherov is asking for. If he wants something in that range, the Lightning would be doing right by him to keep him, but it would likely be the final nail in the coffin for their contention window. Even with a projected $29.8 million in cap space next summer, it will likely hurt their depth with Geekie, Girgensons, Goncalves, Holmberg, and James all requiring new contracts on top of any other upgrades Tampa will want to make.

PREDICTION

The Lightning have their work cut out for them in a daunting Atlantic Division. It already boasted the maximum five playoff teams last season, and while some predict the Boston Bruins to slip from that picture, a healthy Panthers squad and a remodeled Leafs team creates at least six teams in the hunt for the playoffs, not to mention any other teams in the Metropolitan Division. But the Lightning feel like a cut above the rest of the Atlantic (save for Florida), and barring any significant injuries, it’s hard to see them falling out of the playoff picture.

The real question will be if they can finally bring it all together IN the playoffs. Four years of first-round exits are not up to the standard of this Lightning squad, so they’ll need a better performance this time around. If Vasilevskiy’s workload can be lightened and Tampa stops trying to be the Panthers, I do feel like this team has what it takes to at least win a playoff series… unless they play Florida again.