It was known that the New York Islanders would be a different team after trading Brock Nelson. It’s how different they look that is a surprise and something the Islanders are starting to experience firsthand. Their differences in multiple facets are clear with their play on the ice.
The Islanders remain in the hunt for a playoff spot but a worse team since the trade, winning only two of their five games since the deal with the Colorado Avalanche. A few things stand out, notably on the offensive end of the ice and it has the Islanders facing a home stretch where they are trying to make a push for the playoffs but aren’t a playoff-caliber team.
The Islanders having a terrible power play goes hand-in-hand with the team every season. They’ve been below average since general manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello took over and this season, they hovered around the 15-20 percent mark. The Islanders don’t have a good direction on the man advantage and don’t move the puck well, despite having the talent to have an average unit.
The power play has gone from bad to worse since the trade. It’s looked hapless in recent games and at times, it’s been a liability. Since the March 8 game against the San Jose Sharks, the Islanders have scored two power play goals on 21 opportunities and also allowed two shorthanded goals . That game against the Sharks, which they won 4-2, was the last time they scored on the power play. They’ve gone 0-17 since.
It’s easy to see why the unit has fallen apart. Nelson was the shooter who would move around in the offensive zone and make the most of open looks. He only scored one goal on the man advantage this season but his presence on the ice allowed the other skaters to generate offense. Without him, the Islanders have no answers.
Just as the power play went from bad to worse, so did the offense. The Islanders average only 2.68 goals per game on the season and weren’t winning high-scoring games to begin with. They only have 11 goals in their last five games. The forward unit only has one line that can score and after that, it falls off drastically. Losing Nelson had a chain reaction as the Islanders suddenly had to replace a top-six center. To do so, they moved depth skaters up in the lineup and caused the offense as a whole to struggle.
The Islanders need their depth to step up but it can only do so much. Simon Holmstrom, Marc Gatcomb, and Maxim Tsyplakov scored three goals in the March 16 win over the Florida Panthers, a sign the team can find goals from their third and fourth lines. However, if the Islanders are going to win games, it won’t be because of their offense. They must succeed in low-scoring games to get on a run.
With Nelson moved and Mathew Barzal out long-term with an injury, all the pressure shifts to Bo Horvat to carry the offense. The reality is starting to set in, though: Horvat is a great scorer — specifically a great finisher — but he’s not a playmaker. He can find the back of the net but won’t drive the offense.
His 21 goals and 23 assists indicate he’s a well-rounded forward but he’s making most of his impact when he isn’t the puck handler rather, when he has a skater who can find him open in the slot. It makes that eight-year deal he signed in 2023 look questionable. Horvat’s a star and paid like one but he’s limited and can only do so much. The question is if the Islanders can win while paying him to be a core piece to build around.
The answer is yes, but the Islanders need the right pieces around him. Without Nelson, they don’t have a playmaker and can’t rely on Horvat to be one. The Islanders won’t have that type of player in their lineup until Barzal returns and it means the offense will lack a playmaking presence for the rest of the season.
The Islanders have received elite goaltending from Ilya Sorokin all season. His stats don’t indicate that as he has a .906 save percentage (SV%), a 2.73 goals-against average (GAA), and only 7.5 goals saved above average (GSAA) but those numbers don’t do him justice. Sorokin’s carrying the Islanders with his strong play in the net while starting 50 games and facing 1398 shots.
Semyon Varlamov is still out of the lineup and unlikely to return this season. Marcus Hogberg, who struggled in the American Hockey League (AHL), battled injuries when he was called up and only recently returned to fill in as a backup. Sorokin is the constant in the net and if the Islanders make the playoffs it will be because of him.
This season has taught the Islanders and the fanbase a few things. Patrick Roy is a great coach and one the Islanders can rely on to make them competitive for the foreseeable future. At the same time, he can only take this team so far. This team has looked like an AHL team at times with the pile-up of injuries, yet Roy’s gotten the most out of them and made them look competitive in games.
With Nelson gone, Roy can shuffle the lines all he wants. He can have Jean-Gabriel Pageau centering the second line with Anders Lee on the wing. That said, it doesn’t make much of a difference. This season is a reminder that Roy is not the reason this team has struggled, instead, the front office — specifically Lamoriello — put him in a position to fail.
It’s easy to look back at the Nelson trade and the fallout that followed and declare it a bad move. It took a team that already wasn’t going to make the playoffs and made it one that needs a miracle to get in (they are only a few points out but they need a strong finish just to sneak in as a wild-card team.) The move ultimately was a good one as it allowed the Islanders to pivot. They were an aging team on the decline and now, they can start a youth movement.
The rest of this season is a “take-your-medicine” situation for the Islanders. There will be plenty of rough losses and there will be games where they trail 2-0 early on and the game will feel out or reach. At the same time, the Islanders will return next season looking like a better team that can compete in the Eastern Conference.
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