
With 25 games remaining, the Montreal Canadiens find themselves in an enviable spot following the Olympic break. They’re 32-17-8, in second place in the Atlantic Division and facing a relatively weak schedule remaining, at least compared to the teams they’re fighting for playoff position.
That having been said, the Canadiens have six sets of back-to-back games remaining, which is tied for the most (Boston Bruins) among those teams. So they can’t afford to take anything for granted, because little should actually come easy from here on out, least of all the following five must-win games, ranked in chronological order:
While every game is indeed critical down the stretch, the Canadiens are fortunate in that over the first three weeks of the final home stretch of the season, they only play three of their first nine games against opponents currently in a playoff spot. Two of those are against the Western Conference Anaheim Ducks (March 6, 15).
Only one is against an Eastern Conference playoff team in the New York Islanders. However, as Game No. 1 after the break (Feb. 26), it’s hard to consider that a must-win, especially as it’s against a team in the other division (unless you count the necessity for bragging rights over who won the Noah Dobson trade from this past offseason).
Game No. 10 is when things start to get dicey, as they face the Atlantic Division-rival Boston Bruins on March 17. Were it just the Bruins, it might be enough to make this list. Were the Bruins just hot on the Canadiens’ trails, three points behind and holding down the second wild-card spot, it might also be enough. However, based on how their last meeting on Jan. 24 went, with goalie Sam Montembeault giving up both the game-tying and game-winning goals withing 12 seconds of one another late in the third period, the Habs head into this one with a point to prove.
The Bruins represent the first of four straight playoff opponents for the Canadiens. The Detroit Red Wings are next up (Islanders, Carolina Hurricanes), and, seeing as they’re currently tied with the Habs with 72 points in the standings (one additional game played), this one game probably represents the most significant game remaining on the schedule (based on how things stand currently).
This game is also the rubber match between the two, with each team having earned a margin of victory of four goals in their one win so far. In October, the Canadiens made a statement with a 5-1 rout for their first win of the season. The Wings repaid the favour with a demoralizing 4-0 shutout on the part of John Gibson (who had been pulled in the first game) on Jan. 10. Based on how tight things are in the Atlantic between Teams 2-4, it’s no stretch to suggest this four-point game could end up deciding who secures home-ice advantage in Round 1.
Separation has started to form between the playoff and non-playoff teams. However, one non-playoff team in particular remains in relatively decent position to slip in and overtake someone, possibly even the Canadiens. At 29-20-7, the Columbus Blue Jackets may be seven points behind the Habs, but, just like last year when they got edged out in Game 82 for the final playoff spot in the East, the Jackets remain a threat one year later.
While that looks like a comfortable lead, and it is in principle, it can become very thin, taking into account several factors:
On the last Saturday of the regular season, the Canadiens face off against the Blue Jackets again in the Habs’ last home game. The hope is they’ll have already clinched a berth already, making this less of a four-point game and more so just for the two points and a show for the Bell Centre faithful. Even then, based on the amount of runway left on the season, those hypothetical two points would likely be critical to determining how the first round shakes out.
The standings can admittedly change a great deal between now and then, but the Jackets clearly represent worthy opponents, having already beaten the Canadiens once this season, in a shootout on Nov. 17. It’s easy to see them at the very least staying in the playoff race until the end of the season, in which case this game more realistically becomes a way for the Habs to keep them at bay and perhaps put the final nail in their coffins.
One day later, the Canadiens visit the Islanders, with the two games representing the first set of back-to-backs on this list. While it will be difficult to win both, the reasoning for this game’s inclusion is simple. If the goal is to improve on their last regular-season finish, as Game 81, this is the last game in which they would want to clinch a berth, if it won’t have happened yet, of course.
The Islanders, against whom the Canadiens play three times between now and the end of the regular season, including their first game back, currently hold down the third seed in the Metropolitan Division with 69 points in 58 games (32-21-5). It’s possible they slip down into a wild-card spot as the likeliest first victims of the Jackets’ sudden surge up the standings.
In such an instance, this game could mean much more than just bragging rights over Dobson. The Canadiens also shouldn’t just want to clinch a wild-card spot before Game 82. They should want to vault themselves as high up the standings as possible, as soon as possible.
In an ideal world, the Canadiens more than don’t have to win Game 82 against the Philadelphia Flyers (April 14 on the road). They can use it as an opportunity to rest their regulars before a hopefully long postseason run that similarly builds on the five games they got in last spring.
The Canadiens won’t win every playoff game, if they’re lucky(good) enough to make it, but, to put the games on this list in perspective, each one of those will be must-wins in nature, too. So, there are degrees, with the Red Wings game probably representing the biggest one here. If it and other games earlier on go as hoped, the ones on the latter part of this list obviously won’t hold the same significance.
You still want to see them win as much as possible… especially over the Islanders, who are the team the Canadiens face the most of anyone else. If they can only win one of those, this is it.
You hope for all three, though… and for Dobson to score in each game, but, you know, priorities.
More must-reads:
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