A hater’s guide to the Lightning-Canadiens series

A nightmare season for the Toronto Maple Leafs compounds itself, with five Atlantic Division teams in this year’s playoffs. From a Leafs vantage point, there’s an appetite to consume some mutually assured destruction. Without further ado, here is the hater’s guide to the Tampa Bay Lightning-Montreal Canadiens first round matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

There have been several odes to Jon Cooper’s tactical mastery this season, but the Lightning stumble into the playoffs with a .500 record over their past 10 games. Nikita Kucherov is the best winger in the NHL and it’s admittedly difficult to conjure up reasons to hate on him, or Andrei Vasilevskiy, both of whom should be in awards contention. There’s reason to believe that the Lightning are indeed vulnerable, heading into the spring, along with a 1.019 PDO at 5-on-5 that suggests some inevitable regression may be on the way.

Cooper has largely been celebrated for managing several injuries to his defence corps, while remaining a leading contender. Victor Hedman is out of the lineup and doesn’t appear to be returning in time for the start of the series. Darren Raddysh exploded for 22 goals and 70 points in 73 games, but how much of that stems from the motivation of a contract year? JJ Moser was a wizard on the defensive end, but his elevated play has yet to be tested in a deep playoff run. You could make an argument that Erik Cernak is the steadiest option for the Lightning, which isn’t an indictment of the player, as he’s a solid, Cup-winning veteran. He shouldn’t be any contender’s No. 1 though.

Tampa Bay acquired Corey Perry ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline. Perry blindsided John Tavares during the 2021 playoffs and while he is likely heading to the Hall of Fame, he still maintains a reputation as one of the NHL’s dirtiest players. If you’re finding it difficult to root against the Lightning, Perry’s presence alone may be enough.

Montreal Canadiens

Montreal has finally arrived as a leading contender, but it will have to prove its bona fides during this year’s postseason. Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Jake Evans and Mike Matheson have all been to the Stanley Cup, but the rest of this group is largely inexperienced. Although the Canadiens were admittedly one of the league’s most thrilling teams, they benefited from a strong counterattack and controlled just 48 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5. Will Ivan Demidov be able to elevate the rest of the Canadiens’ secondary scoring this spring?

Noah Dobson broke his thumb during Game 80 of the regular season. Dobson’s injury seriously diminishes the Canadiens’ chances. He’s an elite shot blocker and provided valuable offensive contributions from the blue line. David Reinbacher has been called up from the AHL, but Lane Hutson may need to play over 30 minutes a night for the Canadiens to topple the Lightning.

Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler are both among the most promising goaltending prospects in the NHL. Dobes caught fire during the final month of the season, but neither Canadiens’ goaltender are proven options. Samuel Montembeault was one of the NHL’s worst goalies this year, and is a clear No. 3 for Montreal. Will their goaltending be their Achilles’ heel this fall, or will one of Dobes or Fowler rise to the occasion?

It’s frightening that the Canadiens will rule the day for the next decade. They may have arrived a year ahead of schedule and with Dobson out of the lineup indefinitely, along with Michael Hage electing to stay in the NCAA, the Canadiens’ Stanley Cup ambitions may be a bit premature.