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After Brady Tkachuk: Auston Matthews
John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Do you know what the difference is between Brady Tkachuk and Auston Matthews? Matthews hasn't been traded from a Canadian team to an American team YET.

Because we all know it's bound to happen! First, the Maple Leafs won't let him go for nothing in two years, the way they let Mitch Marner go. Second, I don't see Matthews signing a contract extension with the Leafs.

John Chayka is hard to figure out, and the American stars who won gold at the Milan-Cortina Olympics are pretty much all playing for teams south of the border… except for Auston Matthews, Connor Hellebuyck, Kyle Connor, and Jake Sanderson.

Matthews and Hellebuyck have both been at the center of countless rumors for some time now.

Matthews did the Maple Leafs a huge favor three years ago by agreeing to sign a new four-year contract in Toronto even though he was on track for full free agency. However, the team was winning, and the future still looked bright in the City of Kings…

Here we are in 2026, and I don't even know if I'd dare bet $20 on the Maple Leafs making the playoffs next spring. The Panthers, the Lightning, the Canadiens, the Sabres… the Atlantic Division won't get any easier next year.

Matthews was born in Arizona. He spends a good part of his summers in Arizona.

He was evasive about his future just a few weeks ago.

The Toronto market stifles its stars when the team isn't winning. Just ask Mitch Marner…

I definitely see a scenario where Matthews will be wearing a uniform other than the Maple Leafs' in the short or medium term.

When that happens, we'll mainly have to look toward certain U.S. cities where the weather is nice year-round: Salt Lake City, Los Angeles, or Anaheim.

And since Matthews also has a full no-trade and no-movement clause, the Maple Leafs won't get the moon in return for Matthews. Especially if he continues to regress. Between the ages of 28 and 30, Matthews's point total dropped from 107 to 78, and then to just 53.

The Maple Leafs will have to figure out what to do with Auston Matthews. (Credit: Getty Images)

In my opinion, Matthews will give the “new” Maple Leafs a chance. He's already had Jim Hiller as an assistant coach, and he's certainly happy to see Darren Raddysh join the team as reinforcements. And it would look good to give the organization one last chance.

But if Chayka's reset doesn't work—and the organization embarks on another rebuild—the thrill of Matthews is gone.

Just like Cole Caufield and Lane Hutson—the day the Canadiens start going in circles!

I'm not the one who's going to shed a tear for Maple Leafs fans, but there's still something worrisome for all Canadian teams behind the trades involving Tkachuk (twice), Hughes, Gaudreau, Hanifin, DeBrincat, Trouba, and Petry.

The weather, politics (the Canadians were hard on the American players who won the Olympic gold medal), taxes, the media, the sometimes unhealthy intensity of the fans… there are plenty of reasons why an American might want to go back home to the U.S.

Not to mention our ultra-interventionist strategies (such as the curfew, in particular) during the COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly disrupted several players playing in Canada, while in the United States, everything had long since returned to normal.

The problem with the NHL is that a player can make just as much money playing in the sunshine in a small market as he can in the Canadian winter cold and under the pressure that comes with markets north of the border.

In soccer, if you want to make more money, you HAVE to agree to play in a league where the pressure is ENORMOUS. Like in England, France, or Spain…

Not in North American hockey… where you can have your cake and eat it too—and keep the cake as well!

This article first appeared on Dose.ca and was syndicated with permission.

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