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Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner Celebrate a Goal (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)

Analyst: Marner Won’t Join Elite Group Unti 'He Leaves the Leafs'

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Jim Parsons | Last updated Mar 29, 2025 4:15 PM ET

Before this season began, one analyst made a bold prediction related to the Toronto Maple Leafs and star winger Mitch Marner. Jonas Siegel of The Athletic predicted that this might be the season Marner finally scored 40 goals. He was wrong. “Big swing and a miss,” he writes.

Like Siegel, fans have hoped that Marner could become a 40-goal scorer, adding more of a scorer’s mentality to his already stellar play-making resume. The talent is there. Marner is one of the league’s most dynamic forwards, but after another season where he failed to reach the milestone, will it ever happen?

Siegel doesn’t believe so, not as long as Marner is playing in Toronto and with Auston Matthews.

Marner is Playmaker First

Marner can score. He’s had as many as 35 goals in a season, and he’s on pace this season for around 25. That said, his natural tendency is to create scoring chances for his teammates.

Siegel wrote:

“I might be ready to finally ditch this belief — that Marner will one day score 40. Why? I’m not sure he’ll ever shoot the puck enough to do so. This season, Marner is averaging the fewest shots of his career, just over two per game. Not enough volume for 40.”
source – ‘NHL 2024-25 bold predictions: Which preseason picks we got right and wrong’ – Jonas Siegel – The Athletic – 03/29/2025

This isn’t to suggest Marner is anything but elite. His hockey IQ and vision put him in a rare group of players. He’s an asset to the Maple Leafs. He’s just not a natural shooter.

His shot volume is far too low for a player trying to hit 40 goals. The 2021-22 season proved that if he ups his shot rate to over three per game, he’d stand a chance. That may not happen with the Maple Leafs.

The Auston Matthews Effect

Part of the issue is that Marner defers to one of the best scorers in the NHL. Playing alongside Auston Matthews is one reason Marner will never reach 40 with the Maple Leafs. He’d have to change his mentality completely.

This isn’t unique to Marner. It’s the same dilemma that faces Connor McDavid, who doesn’t regularly score 50 goals per season for the Oilers. McDavid has Leon Draisaitl. When you have a sniper on your power play or your line, you tend to give that player the puck. It took McDavid coming into a season and demanding of himself that he lead the NHL in scoring. The season he did, McDavid potted 64 goals. Before and since, he’s not come close to that same mark again.

With Matthews capable of scoring 50 or even 60 goals in a season, Marner’s natural instinct is to feed him the puck rather than call his own number. That dynamic is unlikely to change as long as the duo remains together.

Could Marner Ever Score 40?

Siegel suggests there is a world in which Marner could threaten the 40-goal mark, but it might require a major change —that would be leaving Toronto. Interestingly, that could happen as early as this summer.

If Marner were to find himself in a situation where he was the primary offensive weapon rather than a complementary piece, he might take more shots out of necessity. That could be seen as a positive for a team looking at Marner in free agency. If there’s a knock on Marner as a top-dollar UFA, it’s that he’s never been a 40-goal guy. A team willing to spend the kind of money it could take to sign him might believe he hits that mark when he’s required to be more of a sniper.

His skill set and playing style suggest he’ll always be an elite playmaker rather than a high-volume goal scorer. That doesn’t mean teams should rule out his ability to ever score 40.