Analyzing The Maple Leafs’ Potential Defense Targets

The Toronto Maple Leafs need help on defense, it’s no secret, and it’s been evident over the past few weeks that something needs to happen. The group already had question marks heading into the season, and with injuries, it’s become clear they need a move even though Chris Tanev is returning. Here’s the problem. The Maple Leafs don’t have many future assets to give up, and they also don’t have much cap space, which fluctuates day to day. Another wrinkle is that they also won’t have cap space next year, meaning anyone they take on will likely need a short-term contract, or they will need to move money out at some point to make it work. There are a lot of moving parts, and if general manager John Chayka wants to make an upgrade, he will have to do a lot of work to make it happen. The Maple Leafs can’t go bit game hunting in their search for a new defenseman, which does limit their market, but fits are still available.

Before getting into specific names, many folks will point to the summer and say Chayka should have found a way to move Morgan Rielly and his $7.5MM salary, and they’d have a point given Rielly’s struggles over the past few years. But this season, Rielly hasn’t been a problem and has been offensively productive, with ten assists in 15 games, including seven primary assists at 5v5. His defensive work still isn’t very good, but he has been much better than in years past, which is encouraging. His $7.5MM salary is certainly still too much money for what he brings, even in the new NHL economic climate, which is part of the squeeze Toronto is feeling.

Let’s start with the least realistic target, Erik Karlsson of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Karlsson is in the final year of his contract with Pittsburgh and remains an offensive threat every time he is on the ice. There are many reasons Karlsson doesn’t fit in Toronto, but salary cap and the cost to acquire are two of the biggest. Beyond that, his style wouldn’t mesh well with what the Maple Leafs already have unless Rielly is going back to Pittsburgh, which the Penguins probably aren’t interested in. Karlsson plays a similar offensive-first defensive style, and it would leave the Maple Leafs with very few defensemen who can play defense at a high level. It’s not to say a Karlsson trade is impossible, but at this point it seems fairly improbable.

The next potential target is another right-shot defender and perhaps Toronto’s most likely trade target: Zach Whitecloud of the Calgary Flames. Whitecloud was traded to the Flames in January of last year as part of the Rasmus Andersson deal and is signed through the 2027-28 season at an extremely team-friendly $2.75MM per year. The 29-year-old has a wealth of experience and would give Toronto a solid penalty killer who plays a shutdown game with a ton of heart. Whitecloud doesn’t do anything particularly well, but he is a more-than-serviceable third-pairing defenseman who would be steady for Toronto.

Switching to a potential rental, Nick Perbix of the Nashville Predators could become an option if the Predators fall out of playoff contention. The fifth-year NHL pro has terrific size and decent puck-handling skills, though he turned the puck over a ton last year. Perbix would be another third-pairing defenseman for the Maple Leafs, but you don’t want him in the top four if you can help it. Toronto’s appeal would be the low cost: Perbix makes just $2.75MM this year, and he likely wouldn’t cost a ton to acquire unless he has a career year, which seems unlikely at this point. The big question for Toronto, if they were to look at Perbix, would be whether the 28-year-old is even an upgrade on what they currently have, and the fact is that he probably isn’t enough of one to justify the low cost.

Lastly, Rasmus Ristolainen of the Philadelphia Flyers is also in the final year of his contract, making $5.1MM against the cap. Like Karlsson, Ristolainen would represent a bigger financial swing, but at about half the cost. The physically imposing Swede has been mentioned in trade rumors for most of his career, dating back to his time with the Buffalo Sabres. While having your name in rumors shows there is interest in the player from other teams, it also suggests that teams rostering Ristolainen might not be fully satisfied with what he offers. Sure, he has good size and a terrific shot, but his defensive work is shoddy and his offensive-zone work isn’t much better. Ristolainen is also regularly out of the lineup, making him a tough player to count on. Ristolainen is the one player in this grouping who should be a clear no for the Maple Leafs, but GMs are also intrigued by players with this kind of size and experience.

Whatever the Maple Leafs do, they will need some kind of upgrade on the backend to compete, but they should resist the urge to improve with Ristolainen. Under no circumstances would he be a good target, while Whitecloud and Perbix would be okay upgrades, albeit minor improvements. Karlsson, on the other hand, would be a sizeable upgrade for Toronto but would require heavy salary-cap maneuvering and perhaps a second trade to free up Rielly’s cap hit.