Are the Flames already cooked just nine games into the season?

Friends, let’s have a chat about the start to the Calgary Flames’ 2025-26 season, shall we?

In short: it has not been good. On Sunday night, the Flames will play their 10th game of the season, with the club needing a point to avoid tying a franchise record for the fewest points over the first 10 games of a season.

The Flames entered the season looking to build upon a 2024-25 season that saw them miss the playoffs by a mere tiebreaker, and now they’re on the verge of tying their worst start in franchise history. And discourse around the team has gone downright ugly, with national media – and many fans – speaking as if the season is already over.

With 73 games still remaining, we ponder the question: are the Flames already cooked nine games into their season? And more specifically, based on their own history, is a team’s fate sealed during their first 10 games?

Here’s what Flames history had to say. (Stick-taps to the fine folks at Hockey Reference for all the archival information.)

Good starts

We’re defining “good starts” as a Flames team capturing more than 60% of the available points in their first 10 games.

These teams recorded between 13 and 18 points to start their seasons, posting records ranging from 5-2-3 (twice) to 8-0-2 (1978-79). 11 times the Flames have started with a first 10 game segment in the “good start” category of performance.

Nine times, the Flames have capitalized on a good start and made the playoffs. Twice, they’ve squandered a good start. Oddly enough, they had the same record both years: 7-2-1, posted in both 2001-02 and 2009-10.

If you’re going “hey wait, what about the current era with three point games!”, the Flames have had three “good starts” since 2005-06 – when three point games began – and made the playoffs twice.

Middling starts

A “middling start” is when a Flames team captures more than 40% but not more than 60% of the available points in their first 10 games.

These teams recorded between 9 and 12 points to start their seasons, posting records ranging from 5-2-3 (twice) to 6-4-0 (four times). 28 times the Flames have started with a first 10 game segment in this category of performance.

Exactly half of these times, the Flames have made the post-season. And that seems right, doesn’t it? If your early performance is middling, it makes sense that it would go in either direction at about the same rate.

In the “three-point era,” the Flames have had 11 middling starts and made the playoffs in five of them.

Bad starts

A “bad start” is when a Flames team captures 40% or fewer of the available points in their first 10 games.

These teams recorded between 3 and 8 points to start their seasons, posting records ranging from 0-7-3 (1995-96) and 3-5-2 (twice). 13 times the Flames have started with a first 10 game segment in this category of performance.

The good news is that six times, just under half of these bad starts, the Flames have managed to salvage their season and make the playoffs. Heck, their worst-ever start in franchise history, 1995-96, saw the Flames fail to win a single game in their first 10 outings and somehow make the playoffs, albeit with a 34-37-11 record.

In the “three-point era,” the Flames have had three bad starts and made the playoffs in one of them.

It’s still early…

If you’re an optimist and were hoping for the Flames to somehow return to the Stanley Cup playoffs in 2025-26, we can keep your flicker of hope alive with the notion that it’s still early and teams have recovered from similarly rough starts to make the playoffs. However… while it is still early, it can get late very quickly, so the Flames need to turn things around.

Teams can recover from a bad first 10 games. A bad first 20 games is a whole other, uglier story.

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