
Larkin, DeBrincat, Raymond, Seider, they’re all great pieces. Teams are more than just their core however. The best young teams in the NHL are great because they get contributions from their whole lineup, not just their star players. Being around the 20 game mark, I think it’s a good time to look at how Detroit’s supporting pieces have played to start this season.
Now, it’s important to note that this is going to be half eye-test, half numbers-based. If you want to see the formula I’m using for this, it will be in my “Red Wings With the Most Trade Value” piece if you’re curious or want to use it for yourself. It’s not perfect, so that’s why the eye test will be a part of my rankings.
I’m going to have three rankings: here to stay, where the depth players have cemented their role. On the trade block, where these players should probably be moved and move them, where they really aren’t helping.
And finally, this will only include players who aren’t a part of the core. So no Larkin, Raymond, DeBrincat, Kasper, Finnie, Danielson, Seider, Edvinsson, Sandin-Pellikka, or any goalies as they are simply too weird.
Mason Appleton, 49.5: Mason Appleton is pretty much the perfect bottom-six winger. He has shown glimpses of real offence, can play higher in the lineup in a pinch, and gives a good effort every shift. He is a part of the Red Wings ‘ much-improved penalty kill and plays a big role on it. Offensively, Appleton finds himself in the right spots. His heat maps have him consistently in front of the net. Defensively, Appleton is a little more turnover-prone than you’d like; he loses some board battles or gets a pass tipped away, but generally will fight to get it back. It’s important to note that Appleton needs to be kept away from Michael Rasmussen. He’s a -6 when playing with Rasmussen and is only a -2 on the season. Generally, Appleton is the prototype of a gritty, energy bottom-six forward.
Jonatan Berggren, 51.6: Jonatan Berggren has really found his footing this season. He is playing a much harder brand of hockey, and his skilled play is rewarding him on the stat sheet. Berggren has 6 points in 11 games; he’s the only Red Wings player to be over the half-point-per-game mark without having a point contribution from Larkin, Raymond, Kane, or DeBrincat. Berggren is a threat from just about anywhere, getting quality looks from all over the offensive zone, not to mention he has some of the hardest deployments of any forward, starting 59% of his shifts in the defensive zone. The story with Berggren used to be “he needs to be around talent to shine,” and this season, he is doing it largely on his own.
Andrew Copp, 51.6: Copp is having a huge bounce-back year; this formula has him around a 42 for last season. The big question here for most fans is probably why Copp is in keep and Compher is in move. Two reasons: the first being that Copp can produce lower in the lineup, and Compher may have more trade value. Copp wins face-offs at a 51.2% clip, which is great and certainly better than Compher’s, plus he has produced with a variety of teammates. He has points with 8 different players across even strength and power play. Copp also plays a lot harder in that fourth-line centre role. While I do think either him or Compher could be traded, I think Copp brings this team more value overall. Oh, and if you’re wondering why his score is lower than Compher’s, his 60% defensive zone starts will contribute to having poor defensive totals.
Albert Johansson, 51.9: No big surprise here, the steady bottom-pair defenceman continues to be just that. AlJo has cemented his spot as a solid bottom four, left defence man, and I think every Red Wings fan is comfortable with that.
Ben Chiarot, 53.7: Make no mistake, the reason Edvinsson is playing on the top-pair isn’t because he forced his way up, it’s because Ben Chiarot is good enough to hold down his own pair this season. Chiarot has 40 hits and 33 blocked shots as well as a positive CF% playing some of Detroit’s hardest minutes. If Detroit is out of a playoff spot come the trade deadline, Chiarot is going to be a very valuable asset. If Detroit’s in the race, a big part of this blue line is thanks to him.
Patrick Kane, 59.8: You’re not trading Kane. Patrick Kane has been so great for this team when healthy and this year at even strength too. Now, I do think while the lines are getting shuffled the test will be if he can play well away from DeBrincat, but even if not, his power play talent is unmatched. Kane has continued to be lethal from the right-wing dots. Kane can find the seam for a pass at all strengths, operate well in transition, and control the play at his own speed. His 2.97 xGF/60 is insanely good, and when they find him a line that works, expect big things from Showtime.
Jacob Bernard-Docker, 63.5: This was a fantastic gamble from the Red Wings. Bernard-Docker has incredible underlying numbers this season and continues to be one of their better defenceman. His xGF/60 being 3.66 is genuinely insane. The only thing holding him back from being insanely high is that his point totals are fairly poor. I think Hamonic has proven he isn’t the guy on the third pair as long as JBD is around.
Elmer Soderblom, 35.0: I know, it’s not great. But I think the two most important details of this are his bad points per game and his eased deployments. Soderblom has been stapled to the fourth line this season, meaning he’s been playing a lot with Rasmussen. He’d be up to a 40.1 without those analytics playing a part. I do believe a Soderblom-Copp-Berggren line could be solid, but as it stands, I think the giant deserves to play elsewhere, especially with such an easy contract to move.
J.T. Compher, 54.7: Believe me, I’m loving the Compher bounce back too. Especially when this same formula rated his last season at 47.8. Compher has been steady. The reason he’s in trade is simply because a log jam is starting to form down the middle for the Red Wings. Larkin, Kasper, Danielson, and Copp are all solid NHL centres. With the trade market being so shallow and Compher being able to play as a low-tier 2C to a high-tier 3C, he might demand some value. Compher is a -2 on the season with a poor face-off percentage, and his offense looks tame, but beyond that, Compher has been steady. He’s shown some good chemistry with Jonatan Berggren, as well as looking much improved in his skating with multiple splits above 22MPH. He’s been a big part of the Red Wings penalty kill as well, which again has been much improved. Finally, for playing on Detroit’s “checking line” most nights, Compher having a positive CF% and xGA/60 are both really impressive.
Move Them:
Travis Hamonic, 33.8: Yeah, it’s time to be done with this experiment. Hamonic has just been bad for Detroit. He seems like a good leader and a good veteran, but this formula doesn’t even take defensive errors into account. As cool as the moustache is, JBD is so clearly better.
Michael Rasmussen, 34.9: Honestly, I didn’t even know this formula went this low. Rasmussen has been pretty bad all season. He’s simply not cut out to be an NHL centre, on any line. His 57% face-off percentage is his saving grace, as he hasn’t done much else well. His deployment is the easiest on the Red Wings facing the other team’s worst players and his CF% is also among the worst. Addition by subtraction, now that Danielson is here, move Rasmussen and let Copp play 4C. This is a serious downgrade from his already poor 47.9 rating from last season.
More To Read:
More must-reads:
+
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!