Assessing The Flames’ Morgan Frost Conundrum

It’s been a relatively quiet summer in Calgary up front, as the Flames have been among the less active teams this offseason when it comes to movement within their forward group. But that doesn’t mean the wheels aren’t in motion a month before training camps open. Calgary did make some key additions to their defense, bringing in Simon Nemec and Jacob Middleton, but did very little to change their forward group. The Flames weren’t in a position this summer to make massive additions up front, nor were they in a position to trade many of their assets for future pieces. Most of Calgary’s core players are under team control going forward; however, one player Calgary will have to make a big decision on soon is forward Morgan Frost, who is an unrestricted free agent next July 1st.

Frost came to the Flames in a trade from the Philadelphia Flyers in January 2025. The deal sent Andrei Kuzmenko, Jakob Pelletier, a 2025 second-round pick and a 2028 seventh-round pick to Philly, while Frost and Joel Farabee headed to Calgary. The trade didn’t work out well for the Flyers, as they got seven games from Kuzmenko before he was dealt to Los Angeles with a seventh-round pick in exchange for a third-round pick. Pelletier, on the other hand, dressed in 25 games for the Flyers before moving on to the Tampa Bay Lightning as a free agent. Effectively, the Flyers were left with a second- and third-round pick in exchange for Frost and Farabee, not the end of the world, but not the best asset management either. For Calgary, though, the deal worked out nicely, as Frost slotted in on the third line at center while Farabee was used as a middle-six winger.

This season, all eyes will be on Frost, as he has an opportunity to show he can be a top-six center in the NHL, which would dramatically impact how he will be paid next July. If Frost can show that he belongs in a top-six role, which he should have every chance to do this season, he will be paid like a top-six center on the open market because teams are always desperate for center help. But if he falters, he may find himself viewed by the market as a 3C, which is fine, but the AAV difference will be substantial. Stated differently, if Frost can break out in his age-27 season and become a 60-point player, he could be looking at a contract closer to $7MM-$8MM on the open market, as opposed to the four-year deal at $6.3MM that AFP Analytics is currently projecting for him to get. It’s also possible that Frost could get five or six years on his next deal if he shows signs that he is a top-six option.

This summer has been quiet for Frost, and for good reasons on both sides. Calgary has to assess what fit they see for Frost long term, and Frost has to decide if he’s ready to commit to the Flames, even though they are still very much in a rebuild. As stated earlier, Calgary is committed to almost their entire forward group long term, minus Ryan Strome and a few others. But in the case of Frost, it’s entirely possible he will be the first-line center this season, and that just can’t be the plan long term if Calgary hopes to build a contender. That leaves the Flames in a tough spot because they don’t really have the depth right now at center to start moving on from arguably their best center, but they probably don’t see Frost as a long-term top-six fixture either. Given that the Flames have waited, it probably makes the most sense. If he plays well, Calgary can decide to extend him long term, or they could leverage his strong play to acquire future assets at or before the NHL Trade Deadline. The options are there for the Flames to go down either road, which helps explain why they haven’t moved on an extension yet.

From Frost’s perspective, he has shown the NHL that, at a minimum, he is a 40-45-point third-line center option, which should net him a healthy payday. But if he shows he has another gear and more to give, that healthy payday will only get better. Even an injury-plagued season or a down year is unlikely to sink Frost’s stock much, given how 20-something NHLers are being paid in free agency. Sure, it could get him back from the $6MM AAV, but it’s hard to see much of a haircut on that figure, even if he failed to crack 40 points in Calgary.

Effectively, the standoff is between Frost and the Flames. Both sides are looking to benefit from waiting, so it stands to reason that neither side is in much of a rush to extend. That’s not to say they won’t, and generational wealth could sway Frost to seek long-term security now. But there haven’t been any rumblings that an imminent extension is in the works.