Bookmakers aren’t giving the Canadiens their due

Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

Bookmakers aren’t giving the Canadiens their due

Originally posted on Dose.ca | Last updated Apr 20, 2026 1:27 PM ET

The Canadiens won the first game of their first-round series. They will therefore do no worse than they did in 2025, when they lost in five games.

Jon Cooper, speaking rationally, summed up his team's situation well: the Lightning must now win four of their next six games if they hope to advance to the next round.

That's no small task.

Historically, an NHL team that wins Game 1 has a 68% chance of advancing to the next round. If the team wins that game on the road, the odds drop to 57%. It would have been 75% for a team with home-ice advantage.

And historically, the Canadiens have a 64-11 record in the playoffs when they win Game 1.

#Habs are 64-11 all-time in best-of-seven series when leading 1-0

— Priyanta Emrith (@HabsInHighHeels) April 20, 2026

At this point, we can see that, looking back, the Habs have given themselves a chance to advance to the next round. But what happened way back in 1900 has little bearing on the rest of the series, which is taking place in 2026.

And at this point, the bookmakers still have their doubts about the Canadiens.

According to the Polymarket website, the Canadiens currently have a 49% chance of winning their first-round series. That's better than the 33% chance they had before yesterday's game…

But that means that as of noon today, the Habs are still not the favorites.

Obviously, it's not Martin St-Louis's job to worry about that. He'll just have to remind his guys that they were able to beat Tampa Bay yesterday and that it's possible to do it again.

But I imagine, all the same, that if some Canadiens players see this, it might give them a little extra motivation.

In a nutshell

– I'm not surprised.

Charle-Édouard D'Astous is not participating in the Lightning's practice this morning in Tampa.

— J-F Chaumont (@JFChaumontLNH) April 20, 2026

– He skated before the others.

Victor Hedman is on the ice alone with coaches, putting in some work again this morning. The Lightning practice later at 11:45 a.m. ET pic.twitter.com/h0hU4GJrQ1

— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) April 20, 2026

– What will happen with him?

Frank Seravalli: Re Steve Yzerman/Red Wings: In a lot of ways he feels or appears to be bulletproof in terms of decisions being made; I believe he's in complete control in Detroit – Big Show (4/10)

— NHL Rumour Report (@NHLRumourReport) April 20, 2026

– Note to self.

Waiting for our opponent!
https://t.co/Xo5HCaOsxZ pic.twitter.com/rves49ZEmk

— xy – Laval Rocket (@RocketLaval) April 20, 2026

– Wow.

Things are going well for the Quebec native in Colorado. https://t.co/E6qjxIzAb6

— Passion MLB (@passion_mlb) April 20, 2026

– It would make sense for Evgeni Malkin to come back.

David Pagnotta: I think Evgeni Malkin's coming back next season; he wants to, they'll figure that out in Pittsburgh on a one-year deal – Off The Roster (4/13)

— NHL Rumour Report (@NHLRumourReport) April 20, 2026

This article first appeared on Dose.ca and was syndicated with permission.

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