Calgary Flames News

Home

Quizzes

Newsletter

Calgary Flames 2026-27 Player Projections: Jonathan Huberdeau

Jonathan Huberdeau, Calgary Flames (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Calgary Flames 2026-27 Player Projections: Jonathan Huberdeau

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Jeremy Schouppe | Last updated Aug 5, 2026 9:35 AM ET

Add us as a preferred source on Google

The summer is flying by, and the 2026–27 NHL season is quickly approaching. With that comes the opportunity to start looking ahead at expectations for the Calgary Flames and their roster.

In this series, we’ll take a closer look at each player individually and provide a statistical projection based on historical performance, expected role, and future opportunity.

I’ve blended two approaches when building these projections: one based solely on each player’s historical stats, and another based on each player’s historical share of the Flames’ overall production. Combining both methods helps account for both what a player has produced individually and how they have produced relative to the team’s overall offensive output.

The model uses three-year weighted data from the previous seasons (2025–26: 50%, 2024–25: 30%, 2023–24: 20%), giving the more recent seasons the greatest influence.

The variable part of these projections reflects adjustments for expected role changes and age. Players taking on greater or lesser responsibilities at even strength or on special teams will see those changes reflected. At the same time, age adjustments account for expected development or decline based on each player’s career stage.

One last disclaimer: these projections are done on a per-game basis. Rather than attempting to predict injuries, the goal is to estimate what each player can produce if they’re healthy for all 82-games.

With the methodology out of the way, let’s take a look at Jonathan Huberdeau and what to expect from him during the 2026–27 season.

Jonathan Huberdeau’s Baseline

The drastic changes in Huberdeau’s production levels over the past three seasons will make him one of the tougher projections to make on this Flames roster.

In the past three seasons, we have seen him produce at 0.49 and 0.50 points per game. But thrown in the middle of that was a season in which he averaged 0.76 points per game.

Now, there is a lot of context to add to that: in 2023-24, he finished the season with his lowest goal total and lowest shooting percentage since the 2013-14 season. The shooting percentage was 4.2 percentage points lower than his career average that season, a major driver of his poor production despite 40 assists.

However, he followed that up with a monster finishing season, scoring 28 goals on an outrageous 18.3% shooting percentage the following season, which was the primary reason for the massive jump in points per game.

I’m sure there were a few fans hoping this was the bounce-back season everyone had been waiting for since signing with the Flames. But those numbers were simply unsustainable. In fact, there was only a 10-shot-on-goal difference between those two seasons, but his goal totals differed by 18.

With that, it didn’t shock me to see his production come back down to earth in 2025-26, even before we knew he needed the hip resurfacing surgery, which shut him down for the season after 50 games. But that’s another thing to think about when looking at Huberdeau’s numbers last season. He certainly wasn’t 100% healthy for most of the season, and it’s hard to say how that will affect him going forward.

Potential Usage Changes

Here is another complicated part of projecting Huberdeau’s 2026-27 stat line… Will the Flames truly give younger players like Connor Zary and Matvei Gridin long looks in the top six forwards and on the power play? If so, is it Huberdeau that is the guy to slide down the lineup?

Huberdeau becoming more of the elder statesman of the group, being 33, inclines me to say, yeah, he’ll be the one dropping in the lineup and getting fewer chances on the power play. But at the same time, it’s hard to see the Flames wanting to do that when he is still owed $10.5 million annually.

While he hasn’t been producing anywhere near the value of his contract, at his current production rates there should still be teams willing to take him on with 50% of his deal retained. But that may not be the case if the production slides further if they move him down the lineup.

To me, there is a lot of uncertainty about where he will play in this lineup, but for the sake of the projections, I am expecting him to lose his spot on their top power-play unit and some even-strength ice time.

2026-27 Projections

Goals	Assists	Points	ExpectedGoals	Shots	Shot Attempts	Scoring Chances	High Danger Chances
15.95	24.65	40.61	17.28	119.71	252.23	143.90	75.33

Assuming Huberdeau plays all 82-games, this stat line would end up being his worst as a Flame. Up until last season, which was ended by injury, Huberdeau had three straight seasons with 50 points or more.

Between coming off a serious surgery, the potential of losing ice time and the general lack of talent around him. I don’t see Huberdeau restarting this streak, and I see another season of Flames’ fans wanting more from their highest-paid player.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: