Canadiens & Stamkos Are Far from a Good Trade Fit

Sure, the salary cap continues to rise and Patrik Laine’s contract is theoretically coming completely off the books this coming summer, but do the Canadiens really want to risk replacing one contract of a proven-ineffective forward in this season’s early going with that of one literally eight years older? The fact is, while Laine, who’s currently injured, has only produced one assist in five games so far, Stamkos, who’s presumably healthy, has disappointed to a greater degree over 16, with just three points and two goals, one coincidentally coming against the Canadiens of all teams, in their game on Oct. 16.

The Laine situation is especially relevant here, in that, if the Canadiens were to acquire Stamkos, it would probably have to be in a deal with a similar framework as the one that brought the former to town from the Columbus Blue Jackets. In that trade, the Canadiens gave up defenseman Jordan Harris for Laine AND a second-round pick. The one caveat is, in that trade, the Habs took on all of Laine’s salary and $8.7 million cap hit. As explained above, with Stamkos, it would hypothetically have to be different. Additionally, something to take into consideration is, when the Habs acquired Laine, expectations were still low. It was an incredibly low-risk situation. Now that they’ve made the playoffs, expectations are heightened. You can’t commit to Stamkos to that degree for two full seasons after this one at that cost when there’s a chance he’ll only end up on the fourth line, like Laine has.

Some proponents of the idea of the Canadiens acquiring Stamkos might suggest Stamkos represents a different situation and that the Habs should make some sort of exception to acquire him. After all, he’s a former Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy winner (2010, 2012), who has also helped lead the Tampa Bay Lightning to two Stanley Cups (2020, 2021), as if he alone holds some secret to success and that Laine is in contrast a detriment to the team’s culture.

Anyone making such a suggestion needs to do some serious soul searching as to why they believe that to be the case for the simple reason the Canadiens played their best hockey last season with Laine in the lineup. Meanwhile Stamkos and the Predators failed to make the playoffs despite what many saw as an incredibly successful 2024 summer for the franchise (Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Brady Skjei, etc.)… after they had made them the previous season.

Stamkos vs. Kadri: Who’s a Better Fit for Canadiens?

Ultimately, the Canadiens took steps forward as an organization thanks to contributions from Laine. The Predators did the opposite with Stamkos. That isn’t to say Stamkos would drag the Habs down per se, but you have to take into consideration the team’s current situation and their needs before pulling the trigger here. While the Canadiens could conceivably upgrade on their current second-line centre, Oliver Kapanen is nevertheless in the midst of a largely successful start to the season riding shotgun with Ivan Demidov. Aside from relative to name recognition, there are no guarantees Stamkos would be an upgrade.

It’s a similar situation with Nazem Kadri of the Calgary Flames, who are 4-10-2 and in last place. Based on his current level of play, Kadri arguably has more to offer compared to Stamkos. From purely the standpoint of wanting to win now, you’d have to believe the Habs would be more intrigued by the former. However, his $7 million cap hit only runs out in 2029, one year later than when Stamkos next becomes a UFA. It’s only one year (and $1 million less). Yet it’s easy to envision the Habs balking at the chance to bring him into the fold. Barring exceptional circumstances (and an exceptional low-cost opportunity in which the Predators also retain salary), they should also balk at hypothetically acquiring Stamkos.

Quite simply, there is no reason why Stamkos, whose 17:29 per game ranks fourth among Predators forwards and whose 3:31 per game on the power play ranks first on the team, should rank 15th in team scoring, below the likes of former Canadiens Michael McCarron and Justin Barron, other than what’s obvious. It’s not the situation he’s in, but him instead.

Stamkos is a surefire Hall-of-Fame great, when his time for entry comes. So, he’s obviously due a level of respect, here. However, he’s clearly much closer to a career exit than the point at which he could contribute consistently on a team with huge aspirations for the future like the Canadiens. Regarding that second-line centre spot specifically, the Habs should aspire for more.