Canucks: What does an Elias Pettersson bounce back actually look like?

It truly seems that the 2025-2026 version of the Vancouver Canucks will only go as far as Elias Pettersson is going to take them.

Of course, Quinn Hughes is and will remain the best player on the team. But up front, the Canucks are not going to get anywhere unless Pettersson plays up to the calibre of player that earned him a $92.8 million contract.

After two consecutive seasons of over a point-per-game and hitting the century mark for the first time in 2022-2023, Pettersson took a significant step back in 2024-2025. The Swedish centreman scored just 15 goals and 45 points in 64 games. Now, many factors could have gone into his down season, whether it was a rift between teammates or a lack of offseason training. Regardless, there’s no excuse when you’re making the amount of money Pettersson is.

So, what would Pettersson have to do to return to that franchise centre level he once was?

Meeting expectations: Have a 30-goal, near point-per-game season while proving he is still Number 1 centre calibre

Asking Pettersson to double his goal total from last season just to meet expectations might seem a little far-fetched, but it isn’t really. In the previous three seasons, Pettersson scored 32, 39, and 34 goals. Those were back in the days when his shot was considered one of the most lethal in the entire NHL.

Looking at his NHL Edge shot data from the past three seasons, Pettersson’s top shot speed ranked among the elite in the league:

2023-2024 – 97.67 MPH – 95th percentile – 207 shots on goal

2022-2023 – 95.78 MPH – 94th percentile – 257 shots on goal

2021-2022 – 96.15 MPH – 93rd percentile – 192 shots on goal

But even last season, his shot speed was still there, clocking it at a top shot speed of 93.44 MPH, ranking in the 92nd percentile. His downfall was the shot volume. Pettersson took just 109 shots last year. Now, any Canucks fan watching could see that Pettersson lacked confidence in his shot, which likely led to the significant dip in his production.

Point-wise, despite the low numbers, he still finished averaging 0.70 points per game. While that was still the lowest of his career, Pettersson did rank 115th in the league in points per game. Again, not good enough for the money the club is paying him, but he was still the second on the team behind Hughes in that category.

Outside of his underperforming 2024-2025 campaign, Pettersson’s lowest point-per-game season was his shortened 2020-2021 season, where he finished with a 0.81 PPG (21 points in 26 games). That’s not far off from the production he had last season.

Pettersson is far and away the Canucks’ best centre on the roster. And now, with JT Miller traded, Pettersson has nobody to hide behind if he struggles. He’s proven he can be that player in the past; it’s just about putting the past behind him and proving to himself and the fan base he’s the player from 2018-2024, not last year’s version.

Above expectations: Return to the 100-point player he was in 2022-2023

This would certainly be a big ask, but he’s done it once; who’s to say he can’t do it again?

Looking back on that season, Pettersson found fantastic chemistry with Andrei Kuzmenko. The duo both scored 39 goals and totalled 176 points. Finding similar chemistry with another winger will be pivotal in Pettersson hitting the century mark again. But who on the roster is he most likely to find that chemistry with?

Well, he used to have fantastic chemistry with Brock Boeser. Why couldn’t they spark things up again?

The two players are fairly similar. Both are shot-first wingers, with blistering wristers, but have slower-than-league-average foot speed. We know that Boeser performs best with a play-driving centreman who can get him the puck in open space. Canucks fans remember Pettersson’s creative playmaking and his ability to draw in defenders to create space for his linemates. So if he can get his foot speed back up to his early career numbers, the two could rekindle what they once had.

Likely, everything would need to break right for Pettersson to hit the century mark again. He would certainly need to stay healthy for a full season, which is something he’s done just once in his career. However, it seems like a reasonable above expectation milestone Canucks fans can expect.

Below expectations: Failing to hit the 50-point mark again, doesn’t gain his shot speed or foot speed

Here is what we here at CanucksArmy set as a below expectations season for Elias Pettersson last season:

“A below expectation season for Pettersson still likely yields offensive output most players in the league would take in a heartbeat – something in the neighbourhood of 30 goals and 80 points.”

Gulp.

As we know, Pettersson scored half of the goals and just over half of those points. That is not great. Pettersson’s play last season left much of the fan base second-guessing his ability to truly lead the forward group. If he replicates what he did last year, the future of the Canucks might be in trouble.

The foot speed is going to be crucial for a Pettersson turnaround. He did not come into training camp in shape as he was dealing with a lingering knee injury he sustained before the All-Star break in 2024.

According to NHL Edge, Pettersson ranked in the 94th percentile in top skating speed, clocking in at 23.31 MPH. He also ranked in the 88th percentile in total speed bursts over 20 MPH with 155. However, last season, Pettersson clocked in at a top speed of 22.73 MPH, which ranked in the 72nd percentile. The volume of speed bursts over 20 MPH was significantly down, ranking in the 53rd percentile with just 68.

In today’s NHL, the top players around the league – which Pettersson is paid to be – all have that burner speed that can regularly beat defenders. Without that, Pettersson likely won’t be able to find that same scoring production, as defenders will be able to predict his next play, considering they know he can’t speed past them.

Next season is a big year for the Canucks and Pettersson. Will he be able to bounce back to the player he was for six of the seven years of his career? Or was last year just a sneak peek into his decline as one of the top players in the NHL?