Comparing the Calgary Flames’ 2025–26 start to 2024–25

Record-wise, the Flames are in a much worse spot in 2025-26 than they were at this time last season. Sitting with just five points after 11 games, the team is already eight points behind their 2024-25 pace. With a .227 win percentage, they’re picking up points in less than half the amount of games that they did in 2024-25. Not great.

It’s worth remembering that last years team started the season off on a tear, going 5-0-1 in their first six games. In fact last years team only needed three games to hit six points, while this years team has yet to hit that mark after 11 games. The 2024-25 Flames had more points by October 13th than this team currently has on October 29th.

In terms of goals for and against, both renditions of the Flames struggled to put the puck in the net, although this years team is even worse with a whopping nine less goals through 11 games. Defensively this years team is also worse, allowing five more goals through 11 games than last years team.

Flames standings comparison

Standings-wise, it’s not hard to see the massive gap between last years start and this years. The bottom line is the Flames are dead last in the NHL so far in 2025-26, meaning they’re also last in their conference and in their division. In other words they couldn’t have possibly been any worse last year. In fact the team was sitting in a nice spot at this point last season, holding down a divisional playoff spot and in the upper half of the league standings.

As it stands, the 2025-26 Flames are currently eight points out of a divisional playoff spot, and seven points out of a wild card spot.

Calgary’s underlying results

This is where things start to get really interesting. Despite the difference in raw overall results, the underlying numbers between the two years tell a completely different story. All numbers are courtesy of naturalstattrick.com.

While the standings tell one story, the underlying results tell a completely different one. Despite sitting at the bottom of the league in 2025-26, the teams underlying results are much better across the board compared to last year, and it’s not even close.

Last years team had some ugly underlying numbers, sitting in the bottom 10 in the NHL in both xGF% and xGF/60, and the bottom half of the league in HDCF% and xGA/60. This year however, the Flames rank top 10 in xGF% and xGA/60, and in the middle of the pack for HDCF% and xGF/60. Despite their horrendous goal scoring output this season, their xGF/60 is actually not bad, and shows the team is quite unlucky to not have more goals right now.

Defensively, the 2025-26 team has been a juggernaut? They’ve allowed just 2.19 xGA/60, the fourth best total in the entire NHL. The numbers suggest they should be close to the top of the standings right now given how well their underlying results are, and yet they’ve won just two of 11 games. What gives? Well I think I have some culprits, and a lot of it comes down to luck.

PDO

The above numbers paint a pretty clear picture. The two most important metrics in hockey are how many goals you can score, and how often you keep the puck out of your net. The Flames are struggling at both of those aspects this season, sitting in the bottom half of the league in both 5v5 shooting percentage and 5v5 save percentage. In fact they currently possess the fourth worst 5v5 shooting percentage in the NHL. In short, the 2025-26 Flames can’t finish their chances at one end, and can’t get a save at the other end.

Compare that to last years team, and the difference in results start to make sense. Dustin Wolf was on another level to start last season, with the Flames sitting with an absurd .938 save percentage at 5v5, the fourth best total in the NHL. Compare that to this season where they sit 21st in the NHL with a .900 save percentage at 5v5, and it’s not hard to see why this years team is so far behind last years in terms of overall wins.

Flames scoring leaders

In terms of scoring and point production, this years roster is way behind. Last year the team had four players with over six points through 11 games, this year they have just one. Through 11 games, the team doesn’t have a single skater in the double digits for points, and only one sitting above 0.55 points per game. The teams leading scorer in Nazem Kadri currently ranks tied for 86th in the NHL for points.

A puzzling start to the regular season

If you were to ignore the Flames’ raw totals and record through 11 games and only look at underlying metrics, you’d assume the team is sitting near the top of the NHL standings wise. However, due to a disastrous offensive output and some terrible luck when it comes to putting the puck in the net and getting saves, the Flames sit dead last in the NHL and well behind last years pace.

With some more luck and a couple bounces, the team will no doubt start picking up points, but they’ve already dug themselves such a large hole that it may already be too late to reach last years output of 96 points.