Daily Faceoff ranks Auston Matthews as Top-3 candidate to win Hart Trophy in 2025-26

Expectations are high on Auston Matthews to have a bounce-back season, but just how far can he go?

As we zero in on the 2025-26 regular season, Daily Faceoff’s Matt Larkin put together a ranking of the top candidates to win this year’s Hart Trophy. Despite his down season last year, Larkin put Matthews at #3 on the list, explaining the narrative is there for Matthews to have a big year:

Matthews, Hart candidate coming off a 78-point season, with Mitch Marner gone as a linemate? Hear me out. Narrative can influence a vote, and the loss of Marner could strengthen Matthews’ MVP case if he stays healthy for, say, 75 games. Even when he’s not scoring goals, he’s an elite chance generator, a great defensive forward, a fearless shot blocker and one of the most impactful all-around players at his position, and on the years where his body co-operates and he has his shot at full power, no one has a higher goal-scoring ceiling. If Matthews returns to being an elite scorer, he could earn a long look for the Hart given he’ll be perceived as carrying a weakened Leafs team on his back. The purist Hart voters who prioritize value to team over picking the best player could lean Matthews’ way even if his point total falls way short of the league leaders’.

Ahead of Matthews on the list are Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche at number one, and Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid in second place. Reigning league MVP Connor Hellebuyck came in at fifth on the list.

When he’s healthy, Matthews is one of the best in the game, which is what made last season so disheartening. Toronto’s captain suffered an undisclosed injury in training camp a year ago that seemed to plague him through the season, finishing with 33 goals and 78 points in 67 games played. It was a jarring fall off from the year prior, when he put up 69 goals and 107 points in 81 games played.

This year, Matthews shared he is feeling “really good” about his health once again. With Marner gone, Toronto still hasn’t landed on the permanent top line replacement to play alongside Matthews and Matthew Knies, but there’s already a strong candidate in Matias Maccelli.

After captaining Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off, the 28-year-old may have an extra stride in his step as well with the Olympics on the horizon. With NHL players set to make their return to the marquee competition this season, Matthews has already been named to the roster and is set to make his Games debut. Primed to take on a leadership role with that medal-contending team, it may just give him the swagger to put his all on the ice with the Maple Leafs this season.