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Dallas Stars Roope Hintz looks for the puck in front of Winnipeg Jets Connor Hellebuyck and Dylan Samberg (Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images)

Dallas Stars’ Western Conference Flame-out and the Signs That Were There

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Marc Sautter | Last updated Jun 2, 2025 4:15 PM ET

We are three days and four sleeps removed from the Dallas Stars‘ disappointing and somewhat-surprising collapse and elimination in the Western Conference Final. The elimination itself isn’t necessarily surprising, but the fashion in which it took place is nothing less. No disrespect to these teams, but if it was the Minnesota Wild or the St. Louis Blues who lost in five games to the Edmonton Oilers in the fashion the Stars did, their fans would have given their team a standing ovation off of the ice. To be fair, some Stars fans did. But when you’re a team that has made it to the final four for three-straight years, the expectation is incredibly high, and rightfully so.

As we look back at the Stars’ 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, there was a lot of exceptional moments that were followed by emotional highs and belief in what May and June could be. But now that we’re here, it all makes sense, sort of. The heroics of Mikko Rantanen, the hat trick from Mikael Granlund, spectacular play from Jake Oettinger, and the incredible consistency of the special teams all covered up and saved the Stars from issues that were staring us in the face all along. When those things dried up in the Conference Final, so did the Stars’ succhess, and it’s hard to look back at their run with rose-colored glasses and celebrate the positive moments that took place.

This is still a really good team with what should be a bright future, and there will be a time throughout the summer to look forward to what is next for this team. Unfortunately, that will not be today. Let’s look at the first two rounds and how the chickens came home to roost against the Oilers.

Stars’ Inability to Score First

In Round 1 against the Colorado Avalanche, a series in which Dallas won 4-3, the Stars were outscored 24-21, and the Avalanche scored first in all but one game. In Games 1, 4, 6, and 7, the Avalanche had a two-goal lead or more to start the game, putting the Stars behind the 8-ball from the word “go”. In Game 6, the Stars came from down 2-0 to take a 4-3 lead, before the Avalanche put the pedal to the metal in the third period to win 7-4. Game 7 was the only game in which they came from behind successfully, winning 4-2 after being down 2-0 in the third period.

The power play and penalty kill were exceptional in that opening series. Oettinger stood on his head for a lot of it with the Stars being outshot 34.4 to 26.6 on a shots-per-game basis. Yet, it was a four-point third period from Rantanen in Game 7, including three goals, that pushed the conversation we’re having now by a couple of months.

In the Stars’ 4-2 Round 2 win over the Winnipeg Jets, the Stars allowed the first goal in four of the six games and were outscored 14-13. In two of those games, the Jets had two-goal leads, and in both of them, the Stars were shut out entirely. In Game 1, a 3-2 win for Dallas, all five goals were scored in the second period, with the first and last scored by the Jets. All three goals were, yet again, scored by Rantanen, and the Stars escaped Game 1 with good vibes.

In three of the 10 games in which their opponent scored first, the Stars squeaked out wins in overtime, including the series-clinching win in Game 6 against the Jets. That is three games that could have gone either way.

If you win a series, you deserve to move on. However, it was by the skin of their teeth in both rounds, and eventually, their luck had to run out.

Great Special Teams, Not So Great 5-on-5

In Round 1, 14 of the 24 goals they allowed were five-on-five, but only three of the remaining 10 goals were scored when the Stars were shorthanded. The rest were either four-on-four, shorthanded goals by the Avalanche, when the Avalanche had an extra skater, or into an empty net So defensively, five-on-five wasn’t so bad. Out of the Stars’ 21 goals in Round 1, seven were on the power play and two were into an empty net. That leaves only 12 even-strength goals through seven games.

When you compare that to what we just observed in Colorado’s stats, it doesn’t look that bad. However, it’s the context of the goals that concerns me more, looking back. In that memorable Game 7, only one of the four goals came five-on-five. Through the first four games, three of their seven goals came on the power-play. In Games 5 and 6, seven on their 10 goals came even strength, which was the bulk of their five-on-five goals in the series.

Against the Jets, eight of their 13 goals were five-on-five, which again, doesn’t look too bad. But, when you consider that they were shut out in two of the six games, and three of their final five goals in the series (across three games) were on the power play, the signs were there yet again that the big even-strength goal eluded them.

Lack of Depth Scoring in the First Two Rounds

In the first two rounds, the Stars scored 34 goals. On 19 of them, Rantanen had a point, including nine goals. Thomas Harley had four goals and 11 points, Roope Hintz had five goals and 10 points, and that was it for players in double digits. Three players. Maybe that wasn’t so bad at the time, but now we know it was a foreshadowing of what would happen next.

Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets covers the puck against the Dallas Stars during the first period of Game One of the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs (Photo by Cameron Bartlett/Getty Images)

Throughout this article, we’ve mentioned four goal scorers: Rantanen, Hintz, Harley, and Granlund. Wyatt Johnston (four) and Tyler Seguin (two) were the only other players to score multiple goals through two rounds. Jason Robertson only played in the series against the Jets due to an injury suffered in the last game of the season, but Mason Marchment, Evgenii Dadonov, and Jamie Benn only had one goal each, and Matt Duchene hadn’t scored at all up until that point.

Again, looking back, why did we think that was all of a sudden going to change in the last series before the Stanley Cup Final?

The Stars’ Strengths Through 2 Rounds

It’s been talked about at length by me and every other writer and podcaster who covers the Stars, not to mention coach Pete DeBoer, but there were three big reasons why the Stars made it to the Western Conference Final.

First off, in the first two rounds, their power play was 30.8%. Secondly, their penalty kill was 86.1%. Lastly, Oettinger was outrageously good. We won’t break down all of his numbers and get into it too deeply, but Oettinger was their best player in both rounds, despite his team’s lack of ability to push the game offensively.

We won’t get into this any deeper, but it’s important to note as we get into how it all fall apart.

It Finally Came to Bite the Stars Against the Oilers

As we mentioned at the beginning, the fact the Stars lost to the Oilers isn’t super shocking. It seems like everyone predicted this series to go seven games, which means it was anyone’s series to win. But the way they lost, again like we mentioned, was disappointing and shocking. But after combing through the first two rounds, should it really be that shocking? Disappointing, for sure, but maybe not shocking.

In the Western Conference Final, the Stars were outscored 22-11 and allowed the first goal in all five games. Out of their 11 goals, five of them were scored even strength, five of them on the power play, and one of them into the empty net. Robertson and Seguin scored six of those goals and were the only players who scored more than one goal.

Yet again, they could not get more than two guys going at once. Yet again, they could not get the job done five-on-five, and when the power play chances dried up, so did their ability to score. In the previous rounds, they were able to capitalize on their few opportunities to cover up the fact they were leaving Oettinger out to dry on a nightly basis. Against the Oilers, everything that was wrong with their game for the last month was exposed.

Their power play was still 35.7% in those five games, but a lot of that was due to the three goals with the man advantage in Game 1. The penalty kill, the team’s strength through the regular season and the postseason, dropped to a miserable 62.5% through five games. That might be the most tragic part of this series. The best part of this team, besides the goaltending, fell off of the map when every other weakness was exposed.

On to Next Season

We have a whole three months to talk about what the Stars’ 2025-26 season will look like. Yes, some things need to change, but for the most part, they’re in good shape. For now, it is still hard to believe how quickly they were dispatched by the Oilers. Then again, based on the 13 games, maybe we should have expected it all along.