Despite the Slow Start Lucas Raymond Has the Tools to be a Superstar for the Red Wings

Raymond was the fourth overall pick in the 2020 NHL draft and has proven himself to be one of the best players on the Red Wings. Left-winger Alexis Lafreniere was always going to be the number one overall pick in this draft. In the three seasons that Raymond has been a Red Wing, he has only missed eight games. Aside from his rookie season, when he played in only 56 games, Lafreniere has also been reliably available for the New York Rangers.

Though both players are young in their respective careers, even before the 2020 draft, they were seen as similar. Corey Pronman of The Athletic used the 20-80 scale to break down the different parts of their game. As Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs explains, this 20-80 scouting scale was invented for Major League Baseball but can be used in other sports.

“The invention of the scale is credited to Branch Rickey, and whether he intended it or not, it mirrors various scientific scales. 50 is major league average, then each 10 point increment represents a standard deviation better or worse than average. In a normal distribution, three standard deviations in either direction should include 99.7% of your sample, so that’s why the scale is 20 to 89 rather than 0 and 100. That said, the distribution of tools isn’t a normal curve for every tool, but is somewhere close to that for most.”

Data Scientist Hubert Luo used artificial intelligence to develop tools to scout hockey players, like those used in the 20-80 scale in baseball. These topics were separated into forward and defense strengths and descriptions. The large language models were refined using human intervention to be more representative of on-ice behavior and to reduce overlap between topics. With that in mind, let’s take a look at how Raymond fairs at each of these skills.

• Skating – Despite being a small player Raymond is an average skater. This was one of the main reasons he was selected with the fourth pick in the draft.
• Playmaking – Elite vision allows Raymond to make plays and create chances as the play develops.
• Shooting – With 35 shots in 18 games so far, Raymond has not shot the puck as much as he did in years past. Raymond is on pace to shoot the puck 151 times during the 2024-25 season and this number needs to increase if the Red Wings are going to have success. The 8.6% shooting percentage is also the lowest in Raymond’s young career.
• Puckhandling – Perhaps the most important part of Raymond’s game is his stickhandling. Raymond’s ability to stickhandle in space allows him to make plays.
• Hockey IQ – Before the NHL draft SportsNet compared Raymond to Mitch Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs when it came to hockey IQ.
• Competitiveness – This and his vision led Fredrik Sjorstrom, sports manager for Frolunda HC, to call Raymond the “ultimate competitor.”
• Physical Game – Raymond does not play with physicality as a speedy winger. “I’m young, my body is still developing,” Raymond said in April 2023. “The gym is going to be a big part for me this summer to get bigger and stronger but don’t lose my agility on the ice. I think that combination is huge.”
• Size – At only 5’11” and 188 lbs. Raymond is small for his position. He has put on muscle during his young career to withstand the 82-game NHL season.
• Versatility – Known more for his skating and playmaking, Raymond can play a 200-foot game using great vision and creativity.
• Defensive Abilities – Despite his size, Raymond is a capable defender. He is willing to work in the “dirty areas” of the ice.
• Leadership – Raymond scored the game-tying and overtime-winning goals on the last day of the 2023-24 NHL season to keep the team’s playoff hopes alive, which showed that he transformed his game into one of the more important players on the Red Wings.

In 82 games played during the 2023-24 NHL season, Raymond scored 31 goals and added 41 assists. In the last five games of this season, as the Red Wings were in the chase for a playoff spot, Raymond scored five goals and added four assists. The Red Wings would be eliminated from playoff contention after the Washington Capitals defeated the Philadelphia Flyers in overtime. This was the eighth straight season that the Red Wings have missed the playoffs in a row.

Raymond has performed well recently playing for Team Sweden on the international stage. During the 2024 IIHF World Championship the Gothenburg, Sweden native recorded nine points in 10 games. This was the year after he recorded eight points in eight games. In the first of back-to-back IIHF World Junior Championships in 2020 Raymond earned a bronze medal with team Sweden. Raymond’s international exploits were displayed at a young age as he led Sweden to a gold medal at the 2019 IIHF World Under-18 Championship. In this tournament, Raymond put up eight points in seven games.

Raymond will likely make Team Sweden’s roster for the upcoming 4 Nations Face-off tournament in mid-February. ESPN.com projects Raymond on Sweden’s third line at the upcoming tournament. Joel Eriksson Ek of the Minnesota Wild will center the third line for Sweden, according to this projection. This will be a good chance for Raymond to show off his ability on a stage where the whole hockey world is watching.

Raymond signed an eight-year contract with the Red Wings in September. The average annual value of this contract is $8.075 million. Defenseman Moritz Seider also signed a seven-year contract with the Red Wings. These two young players will be the Red Wings franchise’s cornerstones. The issue remains to acquire a bona fide scorer through the draft or free agency, which the Red Wings have been unable to do.