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The New Jersey Devils are poised to make the 10th overall selection in Friday’s NHL Draft. After that pick, they take a round off and have two picks in the third round. The Devils’ once-vaunted prospect pool has tumbled down the rankings due mainly to players matriculating out of the development stage and into the NHL. A pool that once had Luke Hughes, Simon Nemec, Alexander Holtz, Shakir Mukhamadullin, and Dawson Mercer has now thinned at the top and could use some restocking to ensure the Devils will have reinforcements as they progress through their window of contention.
There are many ways to build a championship team. The best teams take advantage of all of the avenues of construction and find multiple ways to improve their roster. The Devils have been built by hitting on their highest draft picks, making shrewd free-agent signings, and acquiring undervalued talent through trades. As they try to ascend the ranks of the NHL elite, it will only get more difficult as the margin for error shrinks.
Drafting is as much an art as a science. Every class has players who were projected as can’t-miss prospects, who do miss, and late-round selections that immediately make the team and become franchise players. The best way to ensure that a team minimizes the former and maximizes the latter is to accumulate picks. The more chances a team has to get selections correct, the more likely they will hit on their picks. With that in mind, Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald should consider moving down in the draft to accumulate extra picks in a draft with good depth at the end of the first round.
Can the Devils Pass on a Top 10 Pick?
The decision to walk away from a player in the top 10 of a draft is not simple. The quality of players available at number ten varies by draft, but in the 2024 NHL Draft, it appears that ten is right at the edge where the second-tier prospects meet the third tier. This is not the same as in 2022, when the Devils had the second pick and were guaranteed a potential franchise player. The 10th pick will come with much more risk.
No player is perfect for New Jersey and will likely be available at that draft stage. They should accumulate picks and refortify their prospect pool if they cannot acquire a player who can immediately impact the team. Fortunately for the Devils, there are players in the bottom half of the draft who project to fill the team’s long-term needs. Another fortunate stroke of luck for New Jersey is that there are five teams with multiple first-round picks, which should make teams amenable to moving up or down in the draft and have the capital to do so.
Good Trade Partners Exist
The San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens, Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, and Chicago Blackhawks all have first-round selections before and after the Devils’ scheduled pick at ten. They also have a recent history of trading with three of those teams (Montreal, Calgary, and San Jose). All of the listed teams, except Montreal, also have a selection in the first ten picks of the second round. The Sharks possess two picks in the top ten, including the Devils’ second-round pick, which was traded as a part of the deal to acquire Timo Meier.
Using PuckPedia’s Perri Pick Value Calculator to approximate a numerical value for draft picks, the Devils’ first-round pick has a value of 34.22. Without adding prospects or roster players, a trade of the Sharks’ 14th overall pick and 42nd overall pick adds up to a value of 33.23. The Blackhawks’ 18th overall pick and the 34th overall pick comes to a value of 30.43. Either of those would make sense for both teams as it would allow the Sharks and Blackhawks to add two top-ten players to their rebuild and allow New Jersey to regain a second-round pick without dropping too far in the first round.
The Ducks have picks 31 and 35 overall at the bottom of the first round and top of the second, which could be packaged with another future or be part of a bigger trade. With rumors that the Devils are targeting Brett Pesce in free agency, the Ducks could be a landing spot for John Marino to clear cap space for Pesce. Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek has indicated he wants to acquire a top-four right-shot defender, and Marino would fit the bill. Perhaps even a bigger package could include bundling Marino and the 10th overall pick for a player like Frank Vatrano, and the 31st and 35th pick.
Montreal traded their early second-round pick to the Winnipeg Jets, making them a less likely trade partner unless they would be willing to attach a major asset to the 26th overall pick. Calgary also has later picks, but it is difficult to imagine the Devils and Flames finding common ground so soon after the trade for Jacob Markstrom. They likely would have crossed that bridge if they had been willing partners to move in the first round.
Quality Prospects Abound in the Late First Round
Macklin Celebrini, Cayden Lindstrom, Sam Dickinson, and Artyom Levshunov will certainly not be available in the second half of the first round. They are also unlikely to be available at the 10th pick. However, with organizational needs to fill, including a power forward, depth at center, and a physical, stay-at-home defenseman, the Devils can find good value in the second half of the first round. With research from the comprehensive Hockey Writers Draft Guide, here are five players they could target to fill those needs after trading back.
Cole Eiserman – Forward
Cole Eiserman is a polarizing player who is widely considered to have the best shot in the draft. He is headed to Boston University this fall after scoring 58 goals in 57 games this season and a record-setting 127 in the storied United States National Team Development Program. Head coach Jay Pandolfo will work with him to expand his game and improve his defense and playmaking. If he can continue to grow in those areas, he could be the steal of the draft by the time he turns pro.
Michael Hage – Center
The Devils may already be set at the center position for the foreseeable future with Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. Still, behind them, there is a lack of organizational depth, especially since Michael McLeod left the team mid-season following criminal charges. Michael Hage has an inspirational story, fighting back from shoulder surgery and the tragic loss of his father to rebound with 75 points this season in the United States Hockey League (USHL). He possesses a strong two-way game and is known for driving play and creating opportunities for teammates. He also has the pro size and hockey sense combined with a high level of competition. Hage would be a nice piece for New Jersey to add to its prospect pool if they were to drop to the second half of the first round.
Stian Stolberg – Defenseman
Norwegian defenseman Stian Stolberg has been compared to New York Rangers captain Jacob Trouba for his size and physicality. He is already playing in Norway’s top men’s league and will move to the Swedish professional league next season. He turned heads with his play at the IIHF World Championship last month, leading Team Norway in average time on ice. After trading away Nikita Okhotiuk and Kevin Bahl over the last two seasons, the Devils need a mobile, two-way, physical defenseman in their ranks, and Stolberg would meet that need.
Beckett Sennecke – Wing
The Devils have been linked to Beckett Sennecke at the 10th pick, so there are no guarantees that he will slide to 14 or below, but he could. Sennecke fills the need for a right-shot, power forward who brings size and snarl and a powerful shot. He will need some time to fill out, but he has the frame to succeed and have his 200-foot game translate to the NHL.
Sacha Boisvert – Center
Sacha Boisvert projects as a two-way, middle-six center with a high hockey IQ and the skill to match. He steadily increased his offensive production, ending this season with 68 points in 61 games for Muskegon in the USHL. He already has the size to be an ideal matchup centerman at the NHL level and is headed to the University of North Dakota next season for further seasoning.
The NHL Draft is all about maximizing potential and asset management. With the 10th pick, the Devils are set up to add a cornerstone piece of the franchise. Fitzgerald should consider whether he should instead leverage that asset to increase the organization’s depth and fill multiple needs. There is enough value to be had in the second half of the first round that he would be wise to look at options to trade down and accumulate more assets.
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