Eight takeaways from the Oilers regular season

Offence still runs through McDavid and Draisaitl

Few stories have ran more rampant in Edmonton than their ability — or inability — to get depth scoring when the likes of McDavid and Draisaitl aren’t on the ice.

It was an issue that plagued the team in the late 2010’s, though has, at times, trended in a positive direction.

This year, however, wasn’t such a case, as the Oilers five-on-five goal share with them off the ice was as poor as it’s been since the 2021-22 season.

The Oilers played the most minutes they have in recent years without their big two on the ice due to various injuries — and a three-game suspension — and the results weren’t great. They had a low shooting percentage and save percentages, controlling just 42.9 percent of the goal share at five-on-five.

That is, undoubtedly, concerning, considering at the start of the year the belief was that the team addressed that in a big way acquiring Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, who were expected to help provide some more offensive punch. That didn’t come until late in the season.

The with and without numbers are somewhat of a tale of two seasons using sample sizes before the 4-Nations Face-Off and after.

It’s promising to see the numbers leading into the 4-Nations, which are much more in line with what was seen over the last two seasons, but things really cratered after the break with over half of those games coming when McDavid and Draisaitl were hurt.

Connor Brown finds another level

What a season for Connor Brown. I didn’t think that I’d be saying that after what happened last season, but he’s quietly had a strong season, scoring 13 goals and 30 points. His o.62 goals per hour and 1.6 points per hour at five-on-five are right at his career average mark, but based on his recovery from his ACL tear, it’s good to see him rebound to this mark.

Most importantly, and even moreso than last year, his defensive metrics, accounting for goal against, expected goal against and scoring chance rates, have been strong — among the best for Oilers forwards, for that matter.

13 goals and 30 points may not jump off the table as great numbers or anything like that, and while it’s slightly inflated with five of those goals coming in the final eight regular season games with him in the top-six, it appears he’s going to remain there for the start of the Oilers first round series against the Kings.

Fatigue and 4-Nations impacted Oilers

I wrote about the fatigue portion of this last week, highlighting how much hockey the team has played in recent years, as well as how they’ve been dealing with lots of injuries. But it’s worth mentioning the impact the 4-Nations Face-Off had.

Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm and Viktor Arvidsson all represented their respective countries at it, with the latter of the three the only one who really came out unscathed. McDavid looked tired, and Ekholm had battled illness before the tournament, which certainly didn’t help him returning to the Oilers lineup to play at any significant level.

Ekholm was injured in late March, re-injuring himself up when he returned for a game against the Sharks on April 11. Whatever happened is clearly not good, as he’s expected to miss the first round — at the very least — and the team has reportedly braced themselves for him to miss the entire post-season.

I loved the 4-Nations Face-Off as it was great to see NHL players in a best-on-best environment for the first time in far too long, but there was a toll. Any future tournaments like this really need to be held in the summer or in September, or at the very least, players should be given a chance to get proper rest. It seemed like the Oilers did that with McDavid down the stretch run of the regular season.

The Jake Walman acquisition was huge

Speaking of Ekholm potentially being out for the rest of the season, the acquisition of Jake Walman looks better and better by the day. He’s driven play offensively and defensively in a big way, and helps take some of the sting off losing Ekholm.

The Viking isn’t getting any younger either, and Walman’s contract has him locked up through the end of next season at just $3.4-million, according to PuckPedia.

This year will mark his first time playing in the playoffs which will certainly be another learning curve for him, but he’s passed the first test playing important games down the stretch run of the season.

Questions remain in goal

The future in the crease in Edmonton really came into question in a big way for the first time this season. Stuart Skinner showed warts this season in his game struggling for most of the season, while Calvin Pickard — solid for the most part — saw some regression in his numbers, too.

Both players are locked up for next season, but it’s clear that the team needs to address the position for next season. Pickard has been a formidable backup, but the team needs to find a better goaltender who can help spell Skinner if he struggles in the future.

Oilers could have the cap space to big game hunt in summer

The Oilers have positioned themselves well when it comes to their cap space heading into the next few years. With the salary cap rising to $95.5-million for next season, Edmonton will enter the summer with around $9.4-million in cap space

They have restricted free agents in Evan Bouchard, Noah Philp, Olivier Rodrigue, Cameron Wright, Alec Regula, and Roby Jarventie, but the latter Jarventie is reportedly off to play in Finland next season.

Unrestricted free agents include Corey Perry, Jeff Skinner, Connor Brown, Kasperi Kapanen, Trent Frederic, John Klingberg, Derek Ryan, Lane Pederson, Drake Caggiula, Ronald Attard, Connor Carrick, Travis Dermott, Phil Kemp, and Collin Delia.

What happens with the Bouchard contract will be key, as it could really determine just how much room the Oilers have to play with. Despite that, I could envision a scenario where the team moves on from Adam Henrique this summer by way of trade (Winnipeg?) and gets out from Evander Kane’s contract. The team were rumoured to have approached him about waiving his no-move clause at the draft last summer, and they certainly tried to trade him when his clause expired a week before the deadline. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see them get out from the final year of his contract by way of a trade, or a buyout (two years: $2,458,334 in 2025-26, $1,333,334 in 2026-27).

Assuming they buy him out, and that Matthew Savoie and David Tomasek make the roster next year with Max Jones as an extra forward and Noah Philp as the 4C on a two-year, $1.125-million AAV extension, that leaves them with three holes to fill on the wing with $15.89-million in cap space, according to PuckPedia PuckGM tool. For the sake of the argument, the Oilers bridge Bouchard with a two-year, $6-million AAV deal. That leaves two spots on the third line wings to fill and $9.592-million in cap space to do so — and that’s assuming none of the unrestricted free agents the club has re-sign.

What gives me an inkling these things — and the fact they could be big game hunting — is the fact they were in talks with the Carolina Hurricanes to acquire and sign Mikko Rantanen to a long-term contract extension. He was eventually dealt to Dallas, inking an eight-year, $12-million AAV deal with the Stars. It also makes me wonder, given that, if the team does sign Bouchard to a bridge deal, even though that may not be the best move they could make.

Mitch Marner? Matt Duchene? Nikolaj Ehlers? Aaron Ekblad? Ivan Provorov?

Time will tell.