Examining trade options for the Oilers

To say the Edmonton Oilers are struggling defensively would be kind.

They are 31st in goals against/game at 3.72.

They are 31st in goals against/game 5×5 at 2.64.

They have allowed the most slot area scoring chances (71) in the NHL via Clear Sight Analytics.

They rank at the bottom of most scoring chances, after being a top-10 team overall last year. Defensively, they’ve been horrendous.

Here is a look at where they rank in expected goals in defensive areas this year compared to last season.

The Oilers are bottom 10 in five of the above categories and only in the top half of the league in one.

Those numbers are for the full season, but the bigger concern is that in the month of November, the Oilers’ defensive play has actually gotten worse. In November, Stuart Skinner’s expected save percentage is .865 while Calvin Pickard’s is .852. For those asking, the definition of expected save percentage is “what an NHL average goalie would be expected to post based on the quality of shots.” Skinner’s November save percentage is .863 and Pickard’s is .848. They are essentially playing slightly below an average NHL goalie standard.

On the season Skinner has an .880 expected save percentage and he has an actual of .878. He is slightly below expected. He needs to play better, but the team defense has to improve more at this point.

I can understand those who want a goalie change. It makes sense. Just keep in mind that on the season Jordan Binnington’s expected save percentage in St. Louis is .896, and his actual is .881. Binnington did play well in four games at 4-Nations, but is four games enough of a sample size to be sure he can do it again? His regular season stats have fallen each of the past two seasons, in a much larger sample size.

Binnington has a pedigree, but are his best years behind him? How many goalies in the past 25 years have a won a Cup seven years apart? Marc-Andre Fleury won the Cup in 2009, and then again with Pittsburgh in 2017. But in 2017, he started 15 games while Matt Murray started 10 games including all six in the Stanley Cup Final.

Chris Osgood won the Cup in 1998 and again in 2008, both with the Detroit Red Wings. Those Wings teams were loaded with Hall of Famers.

So, the only two times a goalie has won a Cup 7+ years apart they did it with the same team. And the only goalie in the last 40 years to win a Cup on two different franchises was Patrick Roy with Montreal and Colorado. The odds of Binnington bringing a Cup to Edmonton is very low based on history and his recent play. Edmonton needs to look at options other than just Binnington.

OTHER OPTIONS…

Tristan Jarry. He has a $5.375m cap hit for this season and two more. He’s had a solid bounce back start to his season with Pittsburgh, but it is very small sample size of eight games. In those games he’s been very good, and the Penguins haven’t been playing stellar defensively in front of him. It’s not like Scott Wedgewood in Colorado, where he’s had the second best expected save percentage of .915. A good defensive structure will make a goalie’s life much easier. Jarry hasn’t had that, but he’s only played eight games. The concern is it is only eight games.

Elvis Merzlikins. Has a $5.4m cap hit for this year and next season. He’s a very mobile and athletic goalie. The challenge is he hasn’t had a Sv% above .900 since 2022. His last four seasons he’s posted .876, .897, .892 and a .894 this season. Columbus hasn’t been very competitive those years, and his expected save percentage in those seasons was .896 in 2023, .886 in 2024, .891% in 2025 and .894% this season. He was below expected in 2023, then above in 2024 and basically even last year and this season. How would he look on a better team? I’ve always wondered if a change of scenery would help him ever since his close friend, and fellow goalie, Matiss Kivlenieks, passed away in July of 2021 during a fireworks accident. I’d acquire Merzlikins ahead of Binnington as well. Of course the Oilers have to play much better than they’ve played defensively to be considered a better team, but they’ve shown the past two seasons they are capable of being a top 10 team defensively.

Ideally, I think it would be best for Edmonton to have a tandem of Skinner/Jarry or Skinner/Merzlikins. It would provide more depth, a solid competition, but it might not be realistic if you are looking to acquire Jarry or Merzlikins in a trade. Skinner likely has to go the other way in a deal.

The other options would be looking at goalies who you believe are ready to pop and just need a chance in the NHL.

Micheal DiPietro was a name we discussed with Kevin Woodley in the summer. After hearing Woodley’s breakdown, I thought Edmonton should have claimed him on waivers when he was placed there before the season began. Edmonton didn’t and DiPietro has continued his stellar play in the AHL. In 10 starts in Providence he has a 1.80 GAA and .942 save percentage. In 30 starts in 2024 he posted a .918 save percentage and 2.51 GAA. Last season in 40 starts he had a .927 save percentage and 2.05 GAA and he’s improved on those numbers this season.  The Bruins also have Simon Zajicek in Providence playing very well. They might be enticed to make a deal on DiPietro, who is two years older than Zajicek. They signed Zajicek out of the Czech league this past summer, and he’s posted a 1.70 GAA and .942SV in seven starts. They are getting great goaltending from both guys.

I understand why many are asking about Sebastian Cossa. He’s in his fourth pro season with the Red Wings organization, and he’s having a great start in Grand Rapids with a 1.76 GAA and .935 save percentage in 10 starts. I’d be floored if Detroit traded him. They have Cam Talbot (38 years old) and John Gibson (32) in Detroit. Both have made 12 starts with the Red Wings and Talbot is 9-4 with a 2.97 GAA and .887 save percentage, while Gibson is 4-6-1 with a 3.46 GAA and .870 save percentage. Gibson hasn’t been what they were hoping for, and I wonder how long before they recall Cossa. Oilers GM Stan Bowman should call about Cossa, but I’d guess the response would be, ” we are not trading him.”

TWO THINGS NEED TO HAPPEN…

I’ve said since the end of last season, I didn’t expect Edmonton to have the same goalie tandem as the past two seasons after March 6th (trade deadline). I thought they would have looked at DiPietro or others on the waiver wire, but they opted to sign Conor Ingram. He’s been up and down in seven starts with Bakersfield, and I had a scout tell me earlier this week he didn’t think Ingram’s game was NHL ready yet. Ingram has more NHL experience, but also more question marks coming out of the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program. Maybe in a few weeks he finds more consistency, but he’s not there yet.

I still believe a new goalie will be in Edmonton. Maybe he arrives in a deal for Skinner, or maybe he arrives to push/challenge him for starts. Either way, I believe it will happen.

But, regardless of the change they make in goal, if the Oilers can’t sort out their defensive woes, it won’t matter who is playing goal. They won’t be acquiring an elite goalie like Ilya Sorokin, who can play great in a bad environment (he’s the main reason the Islanders are in a playoff spot). There is zero chance they’d trade him, plus he has a full NMC and he loves New York City.

Bringing in a new goalie could help the team get more consistent goaltending, and that is needed, but it won’t solve the defensive woes.

It is a two-step process (maybe more) to improving this team, and both steps need to be made in the coming months. At least the Oilers players are aware they’ve hung their goalies out to dry.

The first step in improvement, is acknowledging the problem.