Expectations for every Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman going into the 2025-26 season

Going into the 2025–26 NHL season, the Leafs are going to look very different, particularly on defence. Gone are the two-way and offensive-minded defencemen, and in is a blueline that is bigger, meaner, and harder-checking than ever before.

Earlier, we looked at forward expectations for each player this season, but let’s take a look at the Toronto Maple Leafs’ defence expectations this year.

Jake McCabe

The long-time Buffalo Sabre has had his best seasons of his career in Toronto, putting up 11 goals and 45 assists over the last three seasons. Looking at these numbers, it should be clear that he was not brought to the Leafs to put points on the board. Instead, the 6’1″ defenceman was brought in to battle in the corners and keep the puck out of the Leafs’ net.

If he can be a strong defensive defenceman, get the puck up the ice with clean breakout passes, and make crisp passes to create chances, the Leafs have won with him. This will likely be a similar year to last, and he should match his point total from last year with 23 points. Hopefully, he can add more than two goals, though.

Chris Tanev

Now 35, the former Calgary Flame and Vancouver Canuck is not known for his offence, but for his defence. He is a warrior on the blueline, the type of player you want on your team through the playoffs, and a guy who plays through injuries that would send any other mortal to the emergency room.

What you really want to see from Tanev is a long season. Ideally, he plays 70–80 regular season games and every playoff game, putting up 25–30 minutes per night. He hasn’t put up ten collective goals in his last three seasons, but has averaged around 15 points per year. Expect more of the same if he can stay healthy.

Morgan Rielly

It’s hard to believe that this will be Morgan Rielly’s 12th NHL season, having joined the league in the 2013–14 season. He is expected to play top minutes for the team and quarterback the top power play unit for the season.

His point totals over the past four years have been 68 in 2021–22, 41 in 2022–23, 58 in 2023–24, and 41 again last season. Odds are, this is going to be a rebound season for him on the blueline, with the rest of the defencemen not known for their scoring. While he likely does not hit 10 goals this season, expect him to pass 50 points. Let’s call it a 55-point season.

Brandon Carlo

A strong defensive defenceman, Brandon Carlo is built for the heavy minutes and tough matchups that he will likely play this season. That’s why the Leafs acquired him from Boston last season. Like Tanev, he is not going to be the guy to put points on the board, and having never once hit ten goals in any season in junior hockey, the AHL, or the NHL, nobody is expecting him to.

What you want to see from Carlo is him being a smart player in his own zone, keeping skaters to the outside, minimizing chances against, and playing hard in the corners. If he can be a positive possession player and drive the puck the right way shift after shift, it’s a massive win for this team. He probably puts up seven points this year.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

The Swedish defenceman was quite good for the Leafs last season, putting up 29 points in 77 games. Historically, he has been a very offensive defenceman, but over time, he has evolved to being more of a jack-of-all-trades guy. On this team, he likely plays second-pairing minutes, with the ability to move up or down the lineup as the season goes on.

He has been a steady 20-point player for the last few years, hitting the 30-point mark twice in the last six seasons. Given his age and role, expect him to be in the 25–30 point range this year, but to be a reliable guy up and down the lineup.

Simon Benoit

Likely the team’s sixth defenceman, the Leafs are not looking to Simon Benoit to fill the scoring void left by Mitch Marner. If he can be a reliable defensive defenceman who can play 10–12 minutes on an average night and keep the puck out of his own net, that’s a win.

Benoit has hit ten points in an NHL season just twice in his career, once with Anaheim in 2021–22, when he was an abysmal -29, and last year, when he was a +12. Let’s hope he can break that with 11 points and be a positive possession player.

Henry Thrun

Henry Thrun is expected to be the Leafs’ seventh defenceman this year, having been acquired this summer from the San Jose Sharks. One of the few offensive defencemen on the team, if he is given a half-season with the team, he likely puts up 10–12 points this year.

Thrun is a smart gamble for a team that is expected to put up fewer points this year than last. If he pans out, the team has a reliable offensive weapon from the blueline. If not, he is relatively easy to bury in the minors, with most teams having their own tweener offensive defenceman.

Getting set for the 2025–26 season

The Leafs, most years, are a team to watch, but this year perhaps more than ever before. With a new look up front and a far more defensive back end, the Leafs are going to have to play very differently this year than last. The team will need to find a way to win games by one goal, which has not been its calling card for much of the last decade. If they can do so by being rock solid in their own zone, the playoffs should go better than they have in the past, but if not, this could be a forgettable year in Toronto.