Expectations for Matthew Knies in the Toronto Maple Leafs 2025-26 season

This summer, Matthew Knies signed a six-year contract extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs worth $7.75M per year. It’s been labelled as a steal by many experts around the league. Last season, he had 29 goals and 58 points at just 22 years of age. Of the 2021 draft class, Knies is third in points and second in goals.

Yet, there are still some people questioning if the investment the Leafs made in Knies was an overpay; whether he’s truly the Leafs’ next star or if he’s just benefited from playing with Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews.

I love Matthew Knies as a player; he played really well throughout the playoffs. He’s the type of player they haven’t had in years, and someone they definitely need to produce.

Here’s the issue, though: when Knies got drafted, he wasn’t labelled as a guy who put up tons of points. All of a sudden, he goes to the University of Minnesota. He plays on a line with an elite playmaker in the Utah Mammoth’s Logan Cooley and an elite sniper in St. Louis Blues forward Jimmy Snuggerud. Sound familiar? He had a very similar line combination in terms of play style in Toronto last season.

I’m not saying that Knies’ success was based purely on the fact that he played with Matthews and Marner. He had 29 goals and had a 19.1 shooting percentage, which is the second-highest by a Leafs player in the last 20 years. In 2012–13, Joffrey Lupul had a 26.2 shooting percentage according to Stat Muse.

A new look top line

Now with Marner playing with the Vegas Golden Knights, the top line won’t be what we saw last season. It is rumoured that Mattias Maccelli will take Marner’s spot on the top line, which will be a significant drop off. So it will be interesting if that changes anything for Knies and Matthews.

Having Knies and Maccelli play with Matthews could help the development of both of them. Maccelli is a worse version of Mitch Marner, which might give Knies more opportunities to carry the puck. However, we are just guessing here.

Last year, Knies had 29 goals. It’d be nice if he could top it this season, and if he does, he could end up on Team USA at the Olympics. Knies will be counted on to make up for the absence of Marner. Last year was a massive jump in his sophomore season, but he is expected to improve again this season. You can argue that Knies was the second-best player for the Leafs during the playoffs, only behind William Nylander.

Expectations

It’s totally reasonable to expect a 30-goal campaign out of Knies in 2025–26. Especially if Matthews can stay healthy, and Knies can once again capitalize on being on a line with a top player in the NHL.

Knies is one of the best net-front players in the league. He’s big, has great hands, and knows where to go in the offensive zone. However, getting the puck in a high danger area is a little bit easier when you’re playing with Matthews and Marner. This year, he may not have as much success. Having said that, this may be an opportunity for him to prove that the Leafs made a good investment when they gave him $46.5M last summer.

Matthews and Nylander will still be the ones driving the bus, and people forget John Tavares is coming off a 38-goal season in 2024–25. However, Knies will be effective on both sides of the ice because of his combination of size and skill. He’s become an absolute menace at the net-front on the power play, and fans are hopeful that pattern will continue.

Knies has also become a fan favourite of Leafs Nation, as well as Head Coach Craig Berube, because of his play style, and fans believe he is on the path to be the Leafs’ superstar of the future. Now it’s time for Knies to help lead a revamped Leafs team to places they haven’t been before. Only time will tell if Matthew Knies will continue to blossom into the star that everybody in Leafs Nation hopes he will become.