Expectations for the Five Highest-Paid Edmonton Oilers in 2025-26

As the league’s highest-paid player, Draisaitl faces no shortage of expectations. After just missing out on his second Hart Trophy last season, the bar is set for him to put up big numbers again, similar to his 106 regular-season points, while continuing to dominate in the playoffs as he has in recent years.

Over the last few seasons, the 29-year-old centerman has improved his defensive game. With several veterans leaving the Oilers and youngsters like Isaac Howard and Matt Savoie looking to make an impact in 2025-26, rookie mistakes are bound to happen as they work out the kinks. Should Draisaitl play alongside the young Oilers, he will likely need to take on more of the defensive responsibility that a centerman carries than in previous seasons.

That said, the expectation for the league’s highest-paid player is to continue piling up points — somewhere in the ballpark of a 50-goal and 50 assist season — while contending for the Rocket Richard Trophy, remaining superb in the faceoff circle, and continuing to build on his strong defensive play. Ideally, I’d like to see him in the conversation as a Selke Trophy finalist, after finishing sixth in voting last season.

Connor McDavid – $12.5 Million AAV for 1 More Season

In a recent article I wrote about Oilers who could win individual hardware in 2025-26, we questioned whether Connor McDavid can regain his M.V.P. status in the league. Of course, I mentioned that he can, and one way to do it is by regaining the shooter’s mentality we saw from him during the 2022-23 season, when he won the Rocket Richard Trophy with 64 goals.

McDavid’s shots-on-goal per game average has dropped over the last three seasons since his Rocket Richard Trophy win. I think the dip, especially the season right after, came from him thinking “pass” to get Zach Hyman into the 50-goal club, and perhaps he got stuck in that mindset. And while no one can really tell McDavid which areas he should improve on, I’ll throw one out anyway — my expectation for him in 2025-26 is to fire the puck more, which I feel could put him back in Hart Trophy contention, all while keeping the ultimate goal of winning a Stanley Cup in mind.

The Oilers captain is so good and elusive in his playmaking ability that it’s almost as if he forgets he’s also one of the best goal scorers of the last 10 years. His 361 goals rank fifth in the league over the past decade, and he’s one of the few Oilers who can consistently beat netminders clean from a distance.

Additionally, to address the elephant in the room, as you look at the headline above indicating McDavid’s $12.5 million for 1 more season, the big question this offseason is the captain’s contract situation. With his current eight-year deal entering its final year, questions remain — will he re-sign, and if so, for how long? An expectation I’d love to see is for him to sign a maximum seven-year extension, though we’ll have to wait and see how it unfolds.

Evan Bouchard – $10.5 Million AAV for 4 More Seasons

Oilers’ D-man Evan Bouchard heads into the 2025-26 season with a fresh four-year contract. Set to make $10.5 million annually, he enters the new campaign as the fourth-highest-paid blueliner in the NHL.

Over the last three regular seasons, Bouchard’s 189 points rank 8th among D-men in the NHL; however, his 72 points in the previous three playoffs place him first, edging out Dallas Stars’ Miro Heiskanen, who is second (32 points) by 40 points. That said, the expectations for Bouchard in 2025-26 are clear: continue being the offensive juggernaut he’s been in both the regular season and playoffs, but cut down on the Grade-A defensive mistakes he makes in the regular season.

We saw that without his usual steady D-partner, Mattias Ekholm, for most of the first three rounds of the playoffs last season, Bouchard was able to elevate his game and play steady defence, showing he’s not just a byproduct of a veteran D-man playing beside him. As the fourth-highest-paid blueliner, I’d expect him to use the ‘Bouch Bomb’ more often, carry over his strong play into next season, and cut down on the grenades he tosses in his defensive zone. As I mentioned in a recent piece, don’t rule out Norris Trophy consideration if he can do those things.

Darnell Nurse – $9.25 Million AAV for 5 More Seasons

As Zach Laing summarized, Darnell Nurse had a “good, but not great” 2024-25 season. The blueliner delivered another steady season offensively, recording 33 points (5G, 28A) in the regular season, posting a 52.94% goal share at 5v5, and averaging over 22 minutes per night. He also brought his usual machismo on the back end, getting into four heavy tilts. However, Nurse’s play dipped in the playoffs, as Laing noted:

“His underlying numbers all took a dip in the playoffs, including his goal share, below the 50 percent mark. Those are undoubtedly concerning things as his he and his most common partner, Brett Kulak, really struggled in 155 five-on-five minutes, with a 43.3 percent shot attempt share and the scoring chance share, 43.7 percent expected goal share while getting outscored 7-3.”

So, what can we expect from Nurse next season? Of course, many Oilers fans want to shout “be better!” just because of the money he makes, but improving substantially may not be realistic at this point in his career. At 30 years old and entering the fourth year of his eight-year contract with an AAV of $9.25 million, Nurse likely is what he is — a good second-pairing defender who skates well, chips in offensively, sometimes makes defensive gaffes, but will throw fisticuffs with anyone.

Having said that, the expectation for Nurse in 2025-26 is to deliver another 30+ point campaign, play a steady 20+ minutes a night, be a bully in front of the net, and, come playoff time, be a dependable player that coaches can count on night in and night out. To meet that expectation, I feel the approach with the coaching staff should be to find the right partner for him moving forward, because at this stage of his career, it’s clear he won’t be carrying a pairing on his own.

Nurse played the most minutes with Troy Stecher last season, and the smaller D-man seemed to bring out the best in him, producing a 54.29% goal share at 5v5 in the regular season, but their effectiveness as a pairing waned in the playoffs as the competition got stronger.

Recently, Oilersnation’s NHL_Sid pointed to Jake Walman as a strong fit to play with Nurse. In limited regular-season time together (105:51 minutes) last season, they held a 66-39 shot share and an 8-2 goal share. In the small playoff sample of 23 minutes, they posted a 12-10 shot share, a 2-1 goal share against tougher competition, and an expected goals rate of 58% xGF%.

With a potential Nurse-Walman pairing, they could develop chemistry in the regular season and become a trusted duo that coaches can lean on consistently in the postseason. Fingers crossed.

Mattias Ekholm – $6.25 Million AAV for 1 More Season

As Mattias Ekholm enters the 2025-26 season as a 35-year-old, he’s far from over the hill, but age is starting to catch up, as he dealt with injuries last season that caused him to miss 17 regular-season games and nearly all of the first three rounds of the playoffs.

Ekholm returned to the lineup in Game 5 of last season’s Western Conference Final after missing most of the postseason with a lower-body injury. Despite tallying six points in seven playoff games, he didn’t look like the usual ‘steady-Eky’ on the blue line that we’ve come to expect since he arrived in 2023.

However, given how impactful the Swede has been for the Oilers, an expectation for next season could be that he slots back in on the first pairing alongside Bouchard and remains part of the dominant duo that has been one of the NHL’s best statistically since being put together.

That said, I can’t help but err on the side of caution — he turns 36 next May and battled injuries last season, so some regression in his game is possible. There’s a chance he drops to the bottom two pairings at points next season, particularly down the stretch in a load-management scenario. Still, the Swedish D-man is an unrestricted free agent after next season, and with a contract year ahead, I can see Ekholm still putting up around 30 points, being a minute muncher on the PK, and putting in a solid 20+ minutes a night.

With that in mind, Nation Citizens, let’s hear your thoughts and expectations for these Oilers for the 2025-26 season.