Five storylines to follow as the Oilers and Panthers prep for Stanley Cup rematch

Death, taxes and the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Finals.

For the second year straight, these two teams have punched their tickets with impressive playoff runs to vie for a chance at Lord Stanley’s Mug.

There’s more than enough storylines to follow between the two teams, but let’s dig into five key ones to watch.

The depth scorers

If there’s one thing both of these teams have, it’s depth.

Both teams have had 19 players find the back of the net through the Conference Finals. All 14 Oilers forwards who have played in a game have scored, while 12 of the Panthers’ 15 have too. On the blue line, five of nine Oilers have scored, and for the Panthers, all seven.

Players up and down the lineup are going to play key roles for both teams, and whoever can get the most from the bottom of their lineups are going to be key.

In the case of the Oilers, they have had much success from the bottom of their forward group. When Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers’ top two centres, have been off the ice in 410 minutes, the team has outscored the opposition 21-10, controlling 67.7 percent of the goal share, 50.8 percent of the expected goal share, 47.6 percent of the scoring chance share and 53.3 percent of the high-danger scoring chance share. They’ve shot 12 percent, getting a .943 percent save percentage for 106.3 PDO.

For the Panthers, when their top two centres are off the ice, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Bennett, they’ve outscored the opposition 19-7 for a 73.1 percent goal share, controlling 51.4 percent of the expected goal share, 50.7 percent of the scoring chance share and 50 percent of the high-danger scoring chances across 337 minutes. They’ve shot 13.7 percent and had a .958 save percentage for a 108.2 PDO.

Oilers need Stuart Skinner

Stuart. Skinner.

He’s been a huge reason why the Oilers have reached the Stanley Cup Finals, flipping the script on two rough games against the Los Angeles Kings. If you account for all 10 games he’s played, he’s saved 6.37 goals above expected, according to Evolving-Hockey, but if you look at his games since retaking the crease against the Golden Knights, his 9.19 goals saved above expected are tops among any goaltenders over that stretch — 1.08 more than the second-placed Jake Oettinger, 1.86 above the third-placed Sergei Bobrovsky, and 3.42 more than the fourth-placed Frederik Andersen.

The turnaround is similar to what he saw in last year’s playoffs. After posting a -5.39 goals saved above expected before getting pulled ahead of Game 4 against the Vancouver Canucks — the second-worst mark among all goalies — he posted a staggering 10.33 goals saved above expected between Game 6 against the Canucks and Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, the best mark by 3.29 expected goals.

If the Oilers have hopes of lifting Lord Stanley’s Mug, the Oilers are going to need him at the top of his game, continuing the trend he’s put up.

Watch out for Connor McDavid

It feels at this point that Connor McDavid won’t be denied a second chance to lift Lord Stanley’s Mug.

There’s no denying how good he was in the 2024 playoffs, earning his first Conn Smythe Trophy. He put up an incredible eight goals, 34 assists and 42 points in 25 games last postseason, breaking Wayne Gretzky’s playoff assist record and becoming the third player in NHL history to score 40+ points in a single playoff.

McDavid scored .32 goals per game, 1.35 assists per game and 1.68 points per game last postseason. This year? He’s sitting at .38 goals per game, 1.25 assists per game and 1.63 points per game — nearly in line with last years production. One caveat this year is that the Oilers have already played less game than last in the playoffs heading into the Stanley Cup Final. In 2024, they played 18 games before meeting the Panthers, while this year the team has played just 16. Two games isn’t a huge difference, but last year McDavid already was at 31 points before the Cup Final, while this year he’s at 26.

The additional depth scoring for the Oilers in this playoff run has made it seem like McDavid may not be pushing as hard for offence, or generating as much, but the numbers don’t back that narrative. McDavid has generated a playoff-high 9.06 individual expected goals (1.46 per hour) in his 16 games through the Conference Finals, according to Natural Stat Trick, while scoring just six goals. Last year through the same stretch, he generated 6.41 individual expected goals (.93 per hour) and scored five.

Simply put: Connor McDavid is due to score some goals.

High-danger areas could define series

One of the areas Bruce Curlock highlighted as a bit of a weakness in the Florida Panthers is the high-danger areas in the defensive zone, calling it “the most chaotic zone from a tactical perspective for the Panthers,” and noting that “they can be effective here, but they will also give up some ten bell chances against.”

While both teams score and defend at around the same rate as each other in the high-danger areas, the Oilers generate nearly two more high-danger chances for per hour than the Panthers at five-on-five.

For the Oilers, they’ve seen improvements both offensively in this area in the playoffs vs. the regular season. They’re generating 1.6 more high-danger chances for per hour, scoring 0.4 more high-danger goals per hour, while their high-danger goal share is a staggering 11.4 percent higher and their shooting percentage 5.7 percent higher — all metrics that are well above what the average Stanley Cup Championship has won since 2013-14, when the league adopted it’s current playoff format.

Florida, meanwhile, has seen dips in their high-danger chances per hour (-0.6), high-danger goals per hour (-0.8), high-danger shooting percentage (-9.8 percent), and their overall high-danger goal share (-13.3 percent).

The special teams

This one is pretty straight forward: if the Oilers have the hopes of winning the Stanley Cup, their penalty kill is going to need to improve drastically. They’ve killed off only 66 percent of the penalties they’ve taken in the playoffs, and while Mattias Ekholm’s arrival against the Dallas Stars should help buoy that number, that number needs to improve.

In fact, since the NHL began tracking special teams statistics in 1963-64, the worst team penalty kill belonging to a team winning the Stanley Cup was the 1966-67 Toronto Maple Leafs, who had a 76.7 percent penalty kill. Since 2013-14, the worst belongs to the 2022-23 Vegas Golden Knights, with a 77.4 percent penalty kill.

While the Oilers have been strong at home on the penalty kill, operating at a 83.3 percent rate, on the road it’s a meagre 55.2 percent. Those same kind of splits apply to the Oilers power play, which has operated at a 30 percent rate in the playoffs. They’re at 56.3 percent at home, and 12.5 percent on the road.

What’s interesting however, is the Panthers’ home and road special teams splits. Their power play is at 23.2 percent and penalty kill 87.9 percent. The power play is just 3.6 percent at home, but 42.9 percent on the road, while their penalty kill is 87 percent at home and 88.6 percent on the road.