Free-agent focus: Winnipeg Jets

Does he have the profile of a top-of-the-lineup, face-of-the-franchise first-line center? Maybe not, although he has shown the ability to play like one at certain moments, such as the 2019-20 Stanley Cup playoffs.

He’ll certainly get paid like a top-of-the-lineup first-line center, though, with media reports indicating that he’s seeking a long-term deal around the $9M/yr. range.

The issue for Winnipeg is that Dubois has no interest in signing that type of contract for the Jets.

As a result, he’s pretty much guaranteed to be traded this summer. As they have one year of team control over Dubois, the Jets have reduced leverage in any trade negotiation. So, it’s unlikely GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is going to be able to get the type of high-end young player in return for Dubois similar to what he surrendered to acquire him. (He sent Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic to the Winnipeg Jets in his original Dubois trade)

That being said, the scarcity of quality top-six centers across the NHL dictates that the Jets should still get a solid return for Dubois, especially if they can sign him to an eight-year extension and then trade him, similar to what the Calgary Flames did last year with Matthew Tkachuk. In any case, it seems the 2016 third-overall pick’s time in Winnipeg is coming to an end.

F Morgan Barron – While Dubois’ maneuvering to work his way out of Winnipeg has soured his reputation among Jets fans, Barron is a player who became more and more of a fan favorite over the course of his rookie season this past year. Now 24 years old, Barron was a trade acquisition from the New York Rangers as part of the Andrew Copp deadline deal last season, and he’s settled in nicely on the Jets.

The former Cornell star has shown himself to be a top-six caliber player in the AHL and this past season moved past that level to spend most of the year as a bottom-six NHLer. He scored 21 points in 70 games and skated over a minute-and-a-half per game on the team’s penalty kill. He’s unlikely to receive any sort of massive pay raise over the $925k cap hit he played on this past year, though it would be no surprise to see him hit or cross the $1M mark.

While a long-term bet is certainly possible, he’ll likely receive a shorter-term deal with the hope that he can continue to develop his game and unlock some of the promise in his six-foot-four frame.

D Logan Stanley – A hulking six-foot-seven blueliner, Stanley is someone who hasn’t quite unlocked the promise many projected he’d have with his combination of size and strength.

The Jets drafted Stanley 18th overall at the 2016 draft and took a patient approach to his development. He first reached the NHL in 2020-21, and has now played a total of 114 games at the NHL level.

While he has had a few promising moments at the game’s highest level, he took a step back this past year, skating in just 19 games and seeing his average ice time decline from 15:39 to 13:43. He’s still not an expensive proposition, but with promising young left-shot blueliners such as Samberg, Chisholm, and Ville Heinola in their pipeline, one wonders if Stanley has a future in Winnipeg.

D Dylan Samberg – The 24-year-old Samberg concluded his first season as a full-time NHLer in 2022-23, skating in 63 games with an average ice time just a shade under 15 minutes.

Samberg was a regular face on the Jets’ penalty kill and is a well-rounded defense-first defenseman offering size and stability from the back end. He impressed for Team USA at the IIHF Men’s World Championships last month and is likely to remain a regular part of the Jets’ defensive lineup.

If they believe in Samberg’s promise as a long-term NHL blueliner, the Jets could always seek out a long-term pact with him this summer, though it seems more likely that a shorter-term deal would be the more palatable route.

Other RFAs: F Kevin Stenlund, F Alex Limoges, D Declan Chisholm, D Leon Gawanke (signed a four-year contract with DEL’s Adler Mannheim), G Arvid Holm.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G David Rittich – Rittich has been a well-traveled backup goalie for the past few seasons, dressing for four teams in three seasons. Now 30 years old, he’s seemingly declined since his early days as a tandem leader for the Calgary Flames, though he did have a bit of a bounce-back season in Winnipeg.

He acquitted himself well on a team used to playing in front of one of the best goalies in the NHL, posting a 2.67 goals-against-average and a .901 save percentage.

Rittich’s advanced metrics were a little bit below average but he went 9-8-1 and is capable of surprises, such as during his run of games to start 2023 where he won three straight starts including an impressive 4-1 road victory in Pittsburgh.

There is some concern after Rittich lost his final five starts, but at a $900k price tag he provided solid value to the Jets. He provides some degree of insurance thanks to the years on his resume of playing over 40 games, and while he has never quite been a leader on the stat sheet, there are far worse backup options to have than Rittich.

He may not receive the $1.25M he made as a member of the Nashville Predators last year, but another deal around what he made this past season would be a reasonable investment for a team looking for an affordable, experienced option in net.

With Arvid Holm fresh off of an impressive season with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose and still not waiver eligible for another season, perhaps Rittich spends another year with the Jets.

F Vladislav Namestnikov – A mid-season trade acquisition by Winnipeg, Namestnikov provided secondary scoring, versatility and valuable veteran experience to the Jets’ lineup. He finished with 10 points in 20 games for the Jets, with nine of those points coming at even strength despite Namestnikov frequently playing on the team’s power play.

If one includes his totals with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Namestnikov had 25 points in 77 games, a totally respectable number for a versatile veteran forward. His improved play as a member of the Jets has likely helped his standing heading into the open market, though even with that improvement in form he could have a difficult path to matching the $2.5M he earned in 2022-23.

Other UFAs: F Sam Gagner, F Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, F Karson Kuhlman, F Saku Maenalanen, D Ashton Sautner, G Mikhail Berdin, G Evan Cormier

Projected Cap Space

The Jets are currently projected to have nearly $13M in cap space, but that’s not a truly relevant number at this time. The Jets are widely expected to deal Dubois as well as netminder Connor Hellebuyck, and other highly-priced veterans such as Blake Wheeler could be traded as well. So the financial wiggle room the Jets have is dependent on who they manage to move out and what sort of money Winnipeg takes on as part of those trades.

The Jets have some contracts that lag behind in terms of efficiency, such as the $5.95M they’re paying Nate Schmidt for the next two seasons, though the inefficiency of the Schmidt deal is somewhat balanced out by the fact that the team is paying point-per-game number-one blueliner Josh Morrissey just $6.25M on a long-term deal.

Morrissey is actually the only Jet signed beyond 2025-26 season, meaning there’s quite a bit of long-term financial space in Winnipeg. The question of this offseason is whether the Jets will be in a position to devote any of that space to valuable, motivated players who want to commit to Winnipeg for a significant chunk of their playing career.